Friendly Warning

[tuck321]

Just forget about betting the Suns tomorrow. This is a game you can only play 1 way. Wolves. Normally the Suns just do not cover 3 in a row. They covered number 3 vs the Nets because they had owed them a major beating for a 110-72 ass whipping from 2 years ago. The Bucks today was actually funny. They had no intention at any point of covering that spread. I am looking at their faces as the play goes and I had to break out laughing. The Bucks kept fouling Nash and then missing shots. They missed their last 3 and went I think 4-10 for the quarter to lose the cover by 1 point while the Suns would have given them layups if they had just gone to the basket.
In any case they recently had to smack the Wolves for the loss at Minn last time. Now they have just beaten these children by 20 point. They are playing 5 in 7. They have covered FOUR Games in a row!!! Their next game is at Cleveland and Cleveland in addition to being the Eastern champion last year has beaten the Spurs, Dallas, and the Lakers this year. Which game do you think will be on their mind tomorrow. If you play the Suns here you are just violating too many rules. The biggest being bet on a team only if they want to play and win the game. The Suns do not want to play this game and they do not really even want to win it. It gets a little more complicated because they have already lost there this year but the Suns are a team that can win many games by very small margins. GL

 

[B.A.R.]

Very valid points and I considered them...but at the same point Minny isn't in a good sitaution at all...in a twinkie game at home..off a win..and revenge game..

 

[Blue_Chip]

i'm on phoenix, but those are some good points, tuck. as hawiiguy says, at least one of us will win!

 

[broadwayjoe]

tuck, 100% agree. excellent points in there. by the way, nice call on the blazers the other day. 36 pts i believe in the 2nd quarter. johnson screwed me with a falling away last second made shot that cost me a 5 unit ml against the wolves earlier in the year, then when i need him to hit a big shot for 5 units he folds. nice. i'm fading them again, but either way i have underestimated them as i predicted 1-6 ats on this trip and they've played very competitively. your writeups are appreciated

 

[SportsNut]

First game that stood out 2 me was this matchup. Absolutely agree with you terrible spot for Phoenix here (5th in 7). First thing that stood out was the line ONLY -8? How can they be lower then Milw??? Look at all of Minny recent home games they were catching 7.5 GSW , 8 Dal , 6 Denver , 5 Portland and the only close game was the miracle cover by 0.5 @ GSW.

Suns had no business covering last nite and playing B2B and 5th in 7 with a short rotation makes it tougher on them after expending so much effort. Grant Hill is back but limited and out of shape and working on getting his game back. Wolves come home with some confidence after playing well @ Den and winning @ GSW. They just played in Pho and the Suns got there revenge so quick turnaround tough to get up to beat up the same team twice in a week. Nash took 23 shots last nite , Amare played 40 minutes and they basically rotated 7 players. Suns went 23/25 from the FT line and covered by 1 point.

Minny won just its 2nd road game and winning on the road then coming home tends to create momentum rather then a letdown like home upsets do. Other away win was followed up a day later with a good showing in Dallas. They also benefit from MLK day and what was a early start giving them a full day off on Tuesday after the mini 3 game trip. Not a great spot for Minny but they are not laying points which sorts of negtates it IMO...

Looks like I will be playing WOLVES....:cheers:

 

[brewer]

minnesota is 2-12 ats this year when they do not win su at home. both of those covers coming by 1/2 a pt. so that number could easily be 0-14 if your a good shopper.

 

[SportsNut]

minnesota is 2-12 ats this year when they do not win su at home. both of those covers coming by 1/2 a pt. so that number could easily be 0-14 if your a good shopper.

They are terrible at home in this situation but have shit the bed a few 4th quarters as well. Can Pho been down 3 quarters again and have enough for agreat 4th quarter here?? Minny has I believe 10 ATS wins as dogs on the road w/o winning .

Who is to say they cant win SU here? They did already when Pho was in a somewhat similiar situation. Trends eventually reverse course just like how Char was 9-2 ATS 1st H as home dogs but have now lost 2 straight in that situation. Minny did cover its last HOME game as a dog but failed to win. Big problem with Minnesota was there solid 1st H play and then collapsing in the 4th quarter. At both Denver and GSW that did not occur. If your playing Minny you simply expect them to match the effort of the past 2 games while Suns in a 5th in 7 days spot you would hope preform at less then peak against a team it played on Friday.

:cheers:

 

[Marlo]

SN

Im from Minny...one thing I can tell you is they have been playing one good half, and one bad. They physically dont play any defense, and refuse to play a solid game. Even with there win against GSW, Baron Davis missed a layup to beat them.

Its tough to back them on anything under DD because of the way they play, situational it seems like a bad spot for Phoenix, but Phoenix has to play pretty poorly to let Minny win, or even cover for that matter....for arguments sake we are talking about Phoenix and they will play to the inferior teams level at times.

 

[tuck321]

I think the nub of the issue is being ignored. The Suns could easily win this game by 30. That should not be in dispute. What I have said as clearly as I possibly could is that this situation Reeks of the Suns trying not to cover. They tried hard not to cover last night and failed. I just expect them to try harder tonight.

 

[reNew Orleans]

great info tuck, may consider t-wovles for a small play after reading this.

 

[SportsNut]

Trying to finish up this card.

Marlo : Being they have played 2 complete halves the past 2 games I am focusing on that. Dont think there is any negative to winning @ GSW even if Davis could have tied it. They dont play defense but matching up with PHO is a repeat of playing GSW isnt it?

I think PHO played pretty poorly last nite and Mo WIlliams DNP. I think( check that) PHO is 8-9 ATS laying more then 4 on the road. I think PHO recently lost @ LAC. The Suns are HOT now but I dont think its asking that much to expect another sloppy performance. Minny had them out rebounded severly on Friday.

have to agree with Tuck where is the incentive here to play 48 minutes of great ball? I would expect alot more SKinner , Banks , Strawberry here tonight.

I dont believe in "trying" to cover but I do believe in coasting . Yesterday the Bucks did what they have been doing lead at half and fall apart afterwards. :cheers:

 

[Marlo]

SN

I am more than likely making the T-Wolves a play, I agree with has been said about Phoenix, but I also wanted to give a view from a Minny fan so those that ride along know what they are getting into. This could go either way. Minny plays well against teams that dont play D, and ultimately this will be the reason for my play.

HEY SN, start your own damb thread with your picks:cheers:. As always appreciate everything you do here.

 

[SportsNut]

SN

I am more than likely making the T-Wolves a play, I agree with has been said about Phoenix, but I also wanted to give a view from a Minny fan so those that ride along know what they are getting into. This could go either way. Minny plays well against teams that dont play D, and ultimately this will be the reason for my play.

HEY SN, start your own damb thread with your picks:cheers:. As always appreciate everything you do here.

I'll try to . Its tough for me right now squeezing in CBB and NBA to even cap all the games....but when I see some extra special I try to partake in some discussion...

BOL Marlo and go WOLVES!!:cheers:

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Minny by 15 at the half.

moose of the season if they dont cover this.

 

[SportsNut]

Thats about as much fun as you can have riding a +300 dog...rarely in doubt!:cheers:

 

[Marlo]

Sport nice cash for us...and nice ML hit...wish I would have it that. But im happy with my Toronto ML cash

 

[SportsNut]

Sport nice cash for us...and nice ML hit...wish I would have it that. But im happy with my Toronto ML cash

I had Toronto as well but didnt hit the ML. Almost did but wimped out. Really no need to mention the value in NO and Tor when BAR was on top of it already...Nice work...Just happy to have a game stand out so clearly and play out so nicely they led by 10 for the last quarters and there was no Suns runs...stress free for once...:cheers:

 

[Marlo]

I had Toronto as well but didnt hit the ML. Almost did but wimped out. Really no need to mention the value in NO and Tor when BAR was on top of it already...Nice work...Just happy to have a game stand out so clearly and play out so nicely they led by 10 for the last quarters and there was no Suns runs...stress free for once...:cheers:

Saw that Toronto matchup a few days ago, and after watching the Det/Orl game from Monday night, I saw great sit. spot for Toronto winning that game...hence the ML play...also sets up a nice play on Boston when they go back to Toronto this year

Its weird but anytime the Pups score over a 100 they are like 7-1 or 7-2 SU this year

 

[Joe Public]

Great stuff on the Suns, Tuck.

Thanks.

 

[B.A.R.]

Still think was bad spot both ways but you were so moe right about the one way..the dog..

congrats...you know the Suns well...I shoulda headed more advice...

Keep em coming!