CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Sup fellas. Lots to digest here. Let's see if we can break it down. I will post my plays in a bit. Any observations you guys have, please chime in.
Ended up 6-4 last night and up 1.22 units. Parlays didn't pan out the way I wanted (except Ana/O, which I did not post)... Now 38-50 and up 4.68 units on the season.
Observation - Because of the imbalance in the schedule, there is always a week each season (I believe) when each league has every team playing every day - a 2-game set, another 2-game set, and a 3-game set. This week is the one time this year it happens in the National League, which has made for some interesting travel scenarios. I am of the belief that most times, the bookmakers factor in the travel and/or extra inning games when necessary, but I'm not sure this card reflects them as it maybe ought to. That being said, I don't want to overvalue that either (think Colorado 22-inning win, then score 10 the next night in Houston - sometimes the day AFTER, in this scenario, the Saturday games - would be more reflective of the travel situation)... Thoughts???
Phi@Pit - Does anyone think Eaton can sustain his early start? He's yet to win but has a respectable 1.34 WHIP thus far. Philles travelling for the third time in five days (Sunday nighter vs. Mets, out to Denver, then to Milwaukee, now to Pittsburgh). Duke was solid in his one home start and Pirate pen (somehow) has been decent (2.27 ERA) at home.
Atl@Met - Braves have struggled on the road some, and Mets are better at Shea. I like Jurrgens and his ability to pitch. He seems to always keep his cool out there and doesn't get rattled. Manages the game quite well for someone his age. Pelfrey got battered around pretty good the last time out and his WHIP is 0.27 higher than Jair. I made this much closer to a pick.
Cub@Was - Dumpster has been solid if not spetacular for the Flubs thus far, living up to his spring billing. Perez has only thrown one real lemon, but has nothing to show for it. Cubs batter lefties to the tune of .302 - but they are also in travel delirium. San Diego last weekend, then home for the Mets, then to Denver for two, then to Washington for this series.
Fla@Mil - Both pitchers have been very good thus far (albeit in limited action). I made the total 8 over here, so buying now you can still get close to 9-flat. What am I missing? Marlin bullpen has a 1.38 ERA on the road. Florida goes from Miami to Pitt to Atlanta to Milwaukee since Sunday. Milwaukee has been home all week.
Hou@Stl - Chacon has been smitten with bad luck from his anemic offense. His road ERA is just 1.29 (2.77 overall) and he has four quality starts in four outings thus far. Looper is usually either very good (inducing lots of grounders) or very bad (last three starts ERA 7.24). Houston travel much more manageable than most visitors this weekend (home to Cincy to STL).
Arz@Sdg - Rematch of the outing Sunday. Wolf a slight favorite, which looks about right to me. Others, I'm sure, have more thoughts on these two lefties, and you've got plenty of data to work with. Zona's travel is irrelevant.
Cin@Sfo - Call me lazy if you want (or call me just short on time), but I'd like to know what Sanchez does following up his 100-pitch (or maybe even 90-plus pitch starts)... He's been bad-good-bad-good so far through four starts, so you might know what to expect tonight should he stay in that pattern. Harang is clearly a staff ace in my opinion, and should have no trouble taming this Giant (Midget?) lineup. Reds just wrapped up a homestand.
Col@Lad - Rockies send out struggling Jimenez, while Dodgers send out a regressing Kuroda. Wish this were a day game. A friend told me that the Braves were picking up Kuroda's pitches much earlier than any of the first three teams (Diego, Arizona, Pittsburgh) did. Also must note that those offenses don't inspire a lot of fear (Arizona's offense will regress as the season progresses; I don't believe it can sustain this start) - and Colorado definitely has more sizzle than it has shown thus far. Kuroda could be heading the wrong way. Rockies just wrapped up a homestand.
AL -
Nyy@Cle - I know a lot of you guys don't like Byrd because he can't strike anyone out and basically pitches to contact. But he has regained command of the strike zone in his last two starts and it mighta just taken a couple of extra starts to get that old arm fired up. He's given up just one ER in his last two starts, but they are keeping him on a tight pitch count. That must be taken into account against a hungry Yankee lineup (think flies around Joba's hat and the ALDS last year) eager to exact a little revenge. Pettitte seems to have rounded into form, and the Tribe averages just 3.9 rpg vs. LH starters.
Ana@Det - First of all, I refuse to acknowledge that team as anything other than ANAHEIM or CALIFORNIA. There is only one team in LA. OK, off my soapbox. Anaheim just came off a fairly emotional set in Boston, where they were swept out of the playoffs last season. They had to struggle to earn a series win. I have been basically blindly betting Detroit OVERS at the highest number (looking for plus-juice), figuring the Tejas staff was going to help awaken those potent bats. I was right. Now the big question is can Santana retain his early-season road form? His woes in the past are well-documented. He threw 109 pitches last time in a good home effort against Seattle. Regression? My vote is yes here against this Tiger lineup that I rate as the best in baseball. Meanwhile, Robertson has his own problems against the Halos, with an 0-4 record and 8.91/1.92 numbers lifetime. He's given up four or five ER in all four starts this year, only getting out of the sixth inning once. I made the total 11 o15.
Bos@Tam - Devil Rays now 6-0 lifetime in Orlando; might want to consider moving the Yankee/Boston series there in the future - if it weren't for all the revenue those teams and their fans brought to central Florida 18 times or so a year it would behoove them to at least think about it. Wakefield loves the Juicebox, as he's 9-1 in 20 games there with a sub-3 ERA (19-3 vs. TAM lifetime). Even if Garza is healthy, hard to tell whether he'll be anything better than a mediocre starter in this league. BoSox seem awfully cheap in this spot.
Min@Tex - With all of the Texas troubles, it seems almost laughable that they can be favored. That said, Millwood is the one guy that can right the ship (even if only for a day) in Arlington. He's 8-1 with a respectable 3.52 ERA in Arlington in his last 13 starts there. That said, he's always struggled with the Twins. Blackburn has a limited sample size, and while I've not seen him pitch, he's been better at home than away (though Detroit and Chicago lineups, which combined to hit .326 against him, could have something to do with that).
Tor@Kcy - Burnett had an off-season injury which could be affecting the way he throws his breaking ball. He's not had nearly the strikeout numbers as he did in the past, and hasn't made it into the seventh inning all season. 13K's to 12 BBs (six last time) is of particular concern. Greinke has out-of-this world talent, and appears to have finally harnessed his ability to pitch. Of worry is that he had breezed through the season thus far until the Athletics batted around in the fifth last time out. By the time he got out of there with three runs to his credit, he had made 100 pitches through five - he made only 106 in a complete game win in Seattle last week. How he rebounds will be key. Jay offense is struggling right now, particularly with their power numbers.
Bal@Cws - I don't know much about Burres, so I'll post his Sabermetrics - and you guys that follow that shit tell me what stands out (maybe I can get a lesson out of this)... what stands out to me is the slugging is only .004 higher than his OB percentage - which means he doesn't give up many extra-base hits. Or at least he hasn't this season, lol. Please note Burres's start in Chicago; his only career one there. Last July 5, he got just four outs and gave up seven earned runs. I was about to say it was his worst outing of the season, but I forgot about those 8 runs he gave up (recording just 2 outs) in the Texas 30-3 blitzkrieg.
OBP SLG BB/9 K/9 K/BB HR/9 BABIP LOB% SB CS FB% GB% LD% GF SVOP HLD QS
Brian Burres .387 .391 5.19 4.67 0.90 0.52 .315 .797 2 0 .345 .400 .255 1 0 0 1
Buehrle had a rocky opening day start - and hasn't gotten much better. Have to wonder when he's gonna turn it around, as he's been a habitual innings-eater and not much else for the ChiSox the last 2-plus seasons.
Oak@Sea - I'm not drinking the Eveland cool-aid just yet. He's not giving up a lot of hits, but his wildness is going to come back to haunt him eventually. He threw 95 pitches last time in just 5 2/3 innings. In two of his last three starts, he's given up as many walks as he has hits (11 hits, 10 walks total in 16 2/3)... Batista was excellent last time out against Anaheim, shutting them out through 7 2/3 innings and striking out eight, his most two years. He credits a slight change in his mechanics - I believe it was his arm slot - that he used last time after complaining of 'dead arm'. Without going into details, he said he's discovered a way to pitch despite not having his best stuff. He had great command of his fastball, moving it in and out, and up and down. He also walked only one. It's definitely worth noting that six of the eight hits he allowed came with two outs.
Hope this helps, and look forward to some feedback. GL all...
:cheers:
Ended up 6-4 last night and up 1.22 units. Parlays didn't pan out the way I wanted (except Ana/O, which I did not post)... Now 38-50 and up 4.68 units on the season.
Observation - Because of the imbalance in the schedule, there is always a week each season (I believe) when each league has every team playing every day - a 2-game set, another 2-game set, and a 3-game set. This week is the one time this year it happens in the National League, which has made for some interesting travel scenarios. I am of the belief that most times, the bookmakers factor in the travel and/or extra inning games when necessary, but I'm not sure this card reflects them as it maybe ought to. That being said, I don't want to overvalue that either (think Colorado 22-inning win, then score 10 the next night in Houston - sometimes the day AFTER, in this scenario, the Saturday games - would be more reflective of the travel situation)... Thoughts???
Phi@Pit - Does anyone think Eaton can sustain his early start? He's yet to win but has a respectable 1.34 WHIP thus far. Philles travelling for the third time in five days (Sunday nighter vs. Mets, out to Denver, then to Milwaukee, now to Pittsburgh). Duke was solid in his one home start and Pirate pen (somehow) has been decent (2.27 ERA) at home.
Atl@Met - Braves have struggled on the road some, and Mets are better at Shea. I like Jurrgens and his ability to pitch. He seems to always keep his cool out there and doesn't get rattled. Manages the game quite well for someone his age. Pelfrey got battered around pretty good the last time out and his WHIP is 0.27 higher than Jair. I made this much closer to a pick.
Cub@Was - Dumpster has been solid if not spetacular for the Flubs thus far, living up to his spring billing. Perez has only thrown one real lemon, but has nothing to show for it. Cubs batter lefties to the tune of .302 - but they are also in travel delirium. San Diego last weekend, then home for the Mets, then to Denver for two, then to Washington for this series.
Fla@Mil - Both pitchers have been very good thus far (albeit in limited action). I made the total 8 over here, so buying now you can still get close to 9-flat. What am I missing? Marlin bullpen has a 1.38 ERA on the road. Florida goes from Miami to Pitt to Atlanta to Milwaukee since Sunday. Milwaukee has been home all week.
Hou@Stl - Chacon has been smitten with bad luck from his anemic offense. His road ERA is just 1.29 (2.77 overall) and he has four quality starts in four outings thus far. Looper is usually either very good (inducing lots of grounders) or very bad (last three starts ERA 7.24). Houston travel much more manageable than most visitors this weekend (home to Cincy to STL).
Arz@Sdg - Rematch of the outing Sunday. Wolf a slight favorite, which looks about right to me. Others, I'm sure, have more thoughts on these two lefties, and you've got plenty of data to work with. Zona's travel is irrelevant.
Cin@Sfo - Call me lazy if you want (or call me just short on time), but I'd like to know what Sanchez does following up his 100-pitch (or maybe even 90-plus pitch starts)... He's been bad-good-bad-good so far through four starts, so you might know what to expect tonight should he stay in that pattern. Harang is clearly a staff ace in my opinion, and should have no trouble taming this Giant (Midget?) lineup. Reds just wrapped up a homestand.
Col@Lad - Rockies send out struggling Jimenez, while Dodgers send out a regressing Kuroda. Wish this were a day game. A friend told me that the Braves were picking up Kuroda's pitches much earlier than any of the first three teams (Diego, Arizona, Pittsburgh) did. Also must note that those offenses don't inspire a lot of fear (Arizona's offense will regress as the season progresses; I don't believe it can sustain this start) - and Colorado definitely has more sizzle than it has shown thus far. Kuroda could be heading the wrong way. Rockies just wrapped up a homestand.
AL -
Nyy@Cle - I know a lot of you guys don't like Byrd because he can't strike anyone out and basically pitches to contact. But he has regained command of the strike zone in his last two starts and it mighta just taken a couple of extra starts to get that old arm fired up. He's given up just one ER in his last two starts, but they are keeping him on a tight pitch count. That must be taken into account against a hungry Yankee lineup (think flies around Joba's hat and the ALDS last year) eager to exact a little revenge. Pettitte seems to have rounded into form, and the Tribe averages just 3.9 rpg vs. LH starters.
Ana@Det - First of all, I refuse to acknowledge that team as anything other than ANAHEIM or CALIFORNIA. There is only one team in LA. OK, off my soapbox. Anaheim just came off a fairly emotional set in Boston, where they were swept out of the playoffs last season. They had to struggle to earn a series win. I have been basically blindly betting Detroit OVERS at the highest number (looking for plus-juice), figuring the Tejas staff was going to help awaken those potent bats. I was right. Now the big question is can Santana retain his early-season road form? His woes in the past are well-documented. He threw 109 pitches last time in a good home effort against Seattle. Regression? My vote is yes here against this Tiger lineup that I rate as the best in baseball. Meanwhile, Robertson has his own problems against the Halos, with an 0-4 record and 8.91/1.92 numbers lifetime. He's given up four or five ER in all four starts this year, only getting out of the sixth inning once. I made the total 11 o15.
Bos@Tam - Devil Rays now 6-0 lifetime in Orlando; might want to consider moving the Yankee/Boston series there in the future - if it weren't for all the revenue those teams and their fans brought to central Florida 18 times or so a year it would behoove them to at least think about it. Wakefield loves the Juicebox, as he's 9-1 in 20 games there with a sub-3 ERA (19-3 vs. TAM lifetime). Even if Garza is healthy, hard to tell whether he'll be anything better than a mediocre starter in this league. BoSox seem awfully cheap in this spot.
Min@Tex - With all of the Texas troubles, it seems almost laughable that they can be favored. That said, Millwood is the one guy that can right the ship (even if only for a day) in Arlington. He's 8-1 with a respectable 3.52 ERA in Arlington in his last 13 starts there. That said, he's always struggled with the Twins. Blackburn has a limited sample size, and while I've not seen him pitch, he's been better at home than away (though Detroit and Chicago lineups, which combined to hit .326 against him, could have something to do with that).
Tor@Kcy - Burnett had an off-season injury which could be affecting the way he throws his breaking ball. He's not had nearly the strikeout numbers as he did in the past, and hasn't made it into the seventh inning all season. 13K's to 12 BBs (six last time) is of particular concern. Greinke has out-of-this world talent, and appears to have finally harnessed his ability to pitch. Of worry is that he had breezed through the season thus far until the Athletics batted around in the fifth last time out. By the time he got out of there with three runs to his credit, he had made 100 pitches through five - he made only 106 in a complete game win in Seattle last week. How he rebounds will be key. Jay offense is struggling right now, particularly with their power numbers.
Bal@Cws - I don't know much about Burres, so I'll post his Sabermetrics - and you guys that follow that shit tell me what stands out (maybe I can get a lesson out of this)... what stands out to me is the slugging is only .004 higher than his OB percentage - which means he doesn't give up many extra-base hits. Or at least he hasn't this season, lol. Please note Burres's start in Chicago; his only career one there. Last July 5, he got just four outs and gave up seven earned runs. I was about to say it was his worst outing of the season, but I forgot about those 8 runs he gave up (recording just 2 outs) in the Texas 30-3 blitzkrieg.
OBP SLG BB/9 K/9 K/BB HR/9 BABIP LOB% SB CS FB% GB% LD% GF SVOP HLD QS
Brian Burres .387 .391 5.19 4.67 0.90 0.52 .315 .797 2 0 .345 .400 .255 1 0 0 1
Buehrle had a rocky opening day start - and hasn't gotten much better. Have to wonder when he's gonna turn it around, as he's been a habitual innings-eater and not much else for the ChiSox the last 2-plus seasons.
Oak@Sea - I'm not drinking the Eveland cool-aid just yet. He's not giving up a lot of hits, but his wildness is going to come back to haunt him eventually. He threw 95 pitches last time in just 5 2/3 innings. In two of his last three starts, he's given up as many walks as he has hits (11 hits, 10 walks total in 16 2/3)... Batista was excellent last time out against Anaheim, shutting them out through 7 2/3 innings and striking out eight, his most two years. He credits a slight change in his mechanics - I believe it was his arm slot - that he used last time after complaining of 'dead arm'. Without going into details, he said he's discovered a way to pitch despite not having his best stuff. He had great command of his fastball, moving it in and out, and up and down. He also walked only one. It's definitely worth noting that six of the eight hits he allowed came with two outs.
Hope this helps, and look forward to some feedback. GL all...
:cheers:
16)">
