CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Sup fellas. Last year, I took 2 full months on my Derby vacation from posting plays (late April til the end of June). This year, I took less than 2 weeks (pats self on back).
Been fairly stagnant and trying to hang out with friends and family back home of course during my vacation. Good to be back, jetlag is gone, cobwebs are clear. It's a clean slate, more or less. Ended up at 2-4 and -6.28 on Sunday the 27th and lost the gyno-tail on Cleveland for -2 the next night. That puts me back into the red for the year. Now 46-45-3 and -0.54 on the 2013 season. Let's see if we can pick it up and turn it around. It only takes one day/week to get things going in the right direction.
Wrong team favored in Pittsburgh. Liriano had exactly zero wins last year at this point and he finished with 16. Wacha hasn't gotten much run support despite being better than I expect most times out. Simply put, regression has hit the Cards with a 2-by-4 in the RISP department.
The play: Pitt +113 small to medium 1.5 units.
Mejia fell victim to the Denver altitude last out and rarely strings together many bad ones. Fausto spun a gem for him last out. Zig zag at work here.
The play: Mets -119 small 1u.
Chacin is a stiff. Second off the rack, don't expect much better than the first. Cueto is the best pitcher in the league right now. Reddies are at home. Price baffling to me, should be close to -200. I let the sharp have their way early. My turn to bully in now.
The play: Reddies -1.5 +142 medium 2u; Reddies -159 medium 2u. This is a 4 unit monster play.
Wrong team favored in LA. Did anyone really think I wouldn't be against Shitgarner in this spot, especially after his good game last out? He's yet to pitch well back to back all season.
The play: Doyers +121 medium 2u.
Chen pitching much better than his primary numbers support, and Feldman is coming off the rack. Easy peezey here.
The play: Balty -1.5 +122 medium 2u.
Zoolander gets a Twins lineup that is down to one bench player (two, if you count the guy who drove 200 something miles to meet the team up from the minors). Two of the sharpest math guys are against my runline play, as they simply don't care about anything other than seeing a 2-to-1 favorite with a total of 7.5 at home getting anything less than -1.5 +124, the correct exchange price, so they think. Except the total got bet up earlier, and I anticipate it going up to possibly 9 later, which means I get Zoo and the math working in my favor.
The play: Detroit -1.5 +108 average after commission small to medium 1.5u.
Made Kluber a small favorite, but I'm passing. Odorizzi is capable of better, the Tampons are coming off an off day and have a rested pen and need to start winning some games. Pass. Seems sharp is on OVER. I will stalk the ump for a look, as I am still not drinking the Kluber kool-aid yet, and Odorizzi has been getting pounded around the second time through the lineup.
Wrong favorite in Seattle.
The play: Bags +101 small 1u.
If the Yankees go up any more, I'll try Gallardo small. Target price is +120 for 1 unit only. Nothing worse.
Big move on Arizona today; not sure how they can be this sort of 6-to-5 favorite even if McCarthy, they are gambling, has turned it around. The White Sox have been raking. Should NOT be a home dog against this pen. If you have 2nd half options, for sure look to bet the ChiSox in a close game if they can get McCarthy's pitch count up.
Milone is a stiff. Fister is in his first off the shelf. I have OVER circled here, but have to step around some ump landmines, so I'll wait for the Stalk.
GL today; back later to post some updates...
:shake:
:goal:
Been fairly stagnant and trying to hang out with friends and family back home of course during my vacation. Good to be back, jetlag is gone, cobwebs are clear. It's a clean slate, more or less. Ended up at 2-4 and -6.28 on Sunday the 27th and lost the gyno-tail on Cleveland for -2 the next night. That puts me back into the red for the year. Now 46-45-3 and -0.54 on the 2013 season. Let's see if we can pick it up and turn it around. It only takes one day/week to get things going in the right direction.
Wrong team favored in Pittsburgh. Liriano had exactly zero wins last year at this point and he finished with 16. Wacha hasn't gotten much run support despite being better than I expect most times out. Simply put, regression has hit the Cards with a 2-by-4 in the RISP department.
The play: Pitt +113 small to medium 1.5 units.
Mejia fell victim to the Denver altitude last out and rarely strings together many bad ones. Fausto spun a gem for him last out. Zig zag at work here.
The play: Mets -119 small 1u.
Chacin is a stiff. Second off the rack, don't expect much better than the first. Cueto is the best pitcher in the league right now. Reddies are at home. Price baffling to me, should be close to -200. I let the sharp have their way early. My turn to bully in now.
The play: Reddies -1.5 +142 medium 2u; Reddies -159 medium 2u. This is a 4 unit monster play.
Wrong team favored in LA. Did anyone really think I wouldn't be against Shitgarner in this spot, especially after his good game last out? He's yet to pitch well back to back all season.
The play: Doyers +121 medium 2u.
Chen pitching much better than his primary numbers support, and Feldman is coming off the rack. Easy peezey here.
The play: Balty -1.5 +122 medium 2u.
Zoolander gets a Twins lineup that is down to one bench player (two, if you count the guy who drove 200 something miles to meet the team up from the minors). Two of the sharpest math guys are against my runline play, as they simply don't care about anything other than seeing a 2-to-1 favorite with a total of 7.5 at home getting anything less than -1.5 +124, the correct exchange price, so they think. Except the total got bet up earlier, and I anticipate it going up to possibly 9 later, which means I get Zoo and the math working in my favor.
The play: Detroit -1.5 +108 average after commission small to medium 1.5u.
Made Kluber a small favorite, but I'm passing. Odorizzi is capable of better, the Tampons are coming off an off day and have a rested pen and need to start winning some games. Pass. Seems sharp is on OVER. I will stalk the ump for a look, as I am still not drinking the Kluber kool-aid yet, and Odorizzi has been getting pounded around the second time through the lineup.
Wrong favorite in Seattle.
The play: Bags +101 small 1u.
If the Yankees go up any more, I'll try Gallardo small. Target price is +120 for 1 unit only. Nothing worse.
Big move on Arizona today; not sure how they can be this sort of 6-to-5 favorite even if McCarthy, they are gambling, has turned it around. The White Sox have been raking. Should NOT be a home dog against this pen. If you have 2nd half options, for sure look to bet the ChiSox in a close game if they can get McCarthy's pitch count up.
Milone is a stiff. Fister is in his first off the shelf. I have OVER circled here, but have to step around some ump landmines, so I'll wait for the Stalk.
GL today; back later to post some updates...
:shake:
:goal:
