Friday unearned runs come in droves Discussion

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
leans from the BOL open:
NYM u6.5 -105
ATL +163
CIN +109
MIA +130
BAL +150
DET +116


on the radar:
WAS -124
CLE u7.5 -120
DET o9 -130
SF -133
 
-over 9 in detroit
-over 11 in colorado
-under 6.5 in pitt
-over 7 in SF
-don't think tropeano should be that big of a fav
-someone talk to me about the mutts, saw a funny stat: -The Mets became the 2nd team since 1920 to start No. 4 and No. 5 hitters with batting averages under .180 and at least 100 ABs...I know G's been praising how Niese has thrown since coming back and being on the trade block.
 
-considering the under in the stl/atl..Manny has impressed me and I keep on trying to go against Cooney and he does well so he should be able to keep those bats quiet

-not sure how to peg the jays game; hutch poor road numbers + pushed cause he was sick but he receives the highest amount of run support in the league per game 6.89, felix currently 1-4 in his last five gets about 2.89 RS/game; both teams playing for the post-season
 
-over 9 in detroit
-over 11 in colorado
-under 6.5 in pitt
-over 7 in SF
-don't think tropeano should be that big of a fav
-someone talk to me about the mutts, saw a funny stat: -The Mets became the 2nd team since 1920 to start No. 4 and No. 5 hitters with batting averages under .180 and at least 100 ABs...I know G's been praising how Niese has thrown since coming back and being on the trade block.

that angels line seems off to me as well. they're en fuego, so that might add some cents to it.
 
Quintana and Kluber two least supported pitchers in AL. Their starts are 14-25 combined to the under.
 
Do you guys actually use run support when capping a game? Seems like one of the most useless stats available with no correlation year to year or am I missing something?
 
Do you guys actually use run support when capping a game? Seems like one of the most useless stats available with no correlation year to year or am I missing something?
to each their own, but it's there as is ball park factor, FIP, xFIP, BABIP, WHIP and ERA for me atleast.
 
Do you guys actually use run support when capping a game? Seems like one of the most useless stats available with no correlation year to year or am I missing something?

Just saying it's a trend for both pitchers this year...I'm probably betting the under. It was interesting to me. It supports the fact that each of their 4 starts against these teams have gone under as well.
 
the under in cle looks really good.

i like mil but kinda waiting to see if it goes any higher. i tend to think nelson underrated and like taking him as a dog, he got smacked around by zona once but he pitching well and dbags not exactly swinging hot bats. think mil can do some damage to corbin and while dbags pen been solid of late i still think they a liability and corbin hasnt been getting deep into games.
 
-over 9 in detroit
-over 11 in colorado
-under 6.5 in pitt
-over 7 in SF
-don't think tropeano should be that big of a fav
-someone talk to me about the mutts, saw a funny stat: -The Mets became the 2nd team since 1920 to start No. 4 and No. 5 hitters with batting averages under .180 and at least 100 ABs...I know G's been praising how Niese has thrown since coming back and being on the trade block.

i would think this is the team he's most likely to be traded to, Kendrick was off last night so he should be in there tonight. Same with Van Slyke

Do you guys actually use run support when capping a game? Seems like one of the most useless stats available with no correlation year to year or am I missing something?

it's unrelated to the SP, but at the same time it has to at least be considered because the team knows about it, the SP knows about it and i think it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy because both start to press
 
i dont blame you on fish, i would have probably played at that number too. when i saw overnight my initial reaction was cashner was overpriced. now im kinda starting to warm to the pads, i think if i could get -120ish id prob end up playing them. cashner has screwed me a ton but he has been pitching more efficiently of late.
 
i dont blame you on fish, i would have probably played at that number too. when i saw overnight my initial reaction was cashner was overpriced. now im kinda starting to warm to the pads, i think if i could get -120ish id prob end up playing them. cashner has screwed me a ton but he has been pitching more efficiently of late.

he's been better and MIA's lineup is terrible, plus JUp pinch hit last night so he may play today, but the Padres are bad and their coaching staff change has hurt them plus their bullpen has been really bad this year despite the great 8th and 9th inning guys
 
SF has real appeal. 3-12 vs 9-6 works best for 9-6 plus SF 7-3 off a day off.
Wish I had seen the plus money on Astros. Now--small lean Astros just on pitching but probably just watch
 
might play Pitt 17-3 at home on Friday and Max has had some recent problems with the ump.
 
Nothing stands out. Locke stinks on 4 which may keep me off. Kluber is better with Yan which might get me on him or the under. Ump seems bad for Quintana.
 
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