NBA Top Picks February 25: No Embiid, No Chance
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Friday, February 23, 2024 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia
Philadelphia's One-Dimensionality
This season, the 76ers have been needing three-point shooters.
They did apparently realize this because they acquired sharpshooter Buddy Hield.
However, their three-point shooting problem is too significant for one play to solve it.
In the last three games, despite the fact that Hield has played in each of them, the 76ers are averaging 10.3 made threes per game, which is actually below their season average.
They rank 27th in made threes per game.
Reliance on Scoring Inside
Philadelphia primarily wants to score inside.
The 76ers rank sixth with 32.1 field goal attempts per game within five feet of the basket.
One might think that this number has been inflated by the presence of now injured star center Joel Embiid, but it's actually the opposite.
Since Embiid's last game on January 30, the 76ers rank second with 36.8 field goal attempts per game within five feet of the basket.
Embiid, because he draws double teams, had made it easier for his teammates to get open behind the arc.
So not only do the 76ers now miss having a monstrous inside scoring threat, they also miss having the same ability to make three-pointers.
Cleveland's Rim Protection
Because Philadelphia is so reliant on scoring around the basket, it is crucial to consider Cleveland's ability to guard the basket.
I like the Cavaliers' defense tonight because the Cavs are excellent at defending this area of the floor: they allow the second-lowest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
Cleveland benefits from having, among others, center Jarrett Allen, who has always been known as a terrific rim protector throughout his career.
Embiid's Defensive Replacements
One reason why Philadelphia is 3-6 right now since Embiid's injury, in addition to losing the benefits that he yields on offense, is that also his defense is missed.
Embiiid is an annual Defensive Player of the Year candidate.
Without him, Philadelphia has to depend on significantly worse defenders to protect the rim.
Evidence for their being significantly worse than Embiid is in the "DFG%" or defensive field goal percentage stat.
Opposing players have a drastically harder time making field goals at an efficient rate against Embiid than against the defenders on whom Philadelphia now depends more strongly, Nicolas Batum and Paul Reed.
Without Embiid, Philadelphia misses too much size, strength, and shot-blocking ability.
Cleveland's Offense
With the driving ability of guard Donovan Mitchell among others, Cleveland has been more efficient than almost all other teams within five feet of the basket.
In addition to possessing weapons that can score inside, especially without having to worry about Embiid, Cleveland is more versatile offensively than the 76ers.
The Cavaliers like to shoot three-pointers, and, by posing a threat from long range with the likes of in-form Darius Garland, will have good balance on offense.
Best Bet: Cavaliers -3.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Friday, February 23, 2024 at 8 p.m. ET at FedExForum in Memphis
Key Trend
L.A. is not a team that you can trust to win by as many points as they would need to win by tonight in order to cover the spread.
The Clippers have failed to win by more than eight points in each of their last seven games.
Their defense is frequently so problematic that this trend persists even though they scored 149 points on February 5 in Atlanta.
The Last Meeting
Now, one might say that the Clippers won by nine points in their last game at Memphis.
Isn't it too dangerous to bet against them tonight?
In that game, though, the Clippers shot 15-for-31 from behind the arc.
It is extremely unlikely that they do so well from deep again, which entails that they will likely score fewer points tonight than they did in that game.
Memphis' Defense
The Grizzlies have won two in a row, holding Houston and then Milwaukee to below its points-per-game average.
So, despite how their season is going, the Grizzlies remain focused.
Their ability to hold Milwaukee, which averages over 120 points per game, to 110 points is especially impressive given Jaren Jackson Jr's absence.
Memphis clearly has other good defenders and its defense is clearly in strong form right now, but its outlook tonight would be all the stronger if he is able to play tonight. He is actually listed as 'probable' with his quadriceps injury.
Takeaway
It won't take that much good defense, anyhow, to keep the Grizzlies in cover range against a Clippers team that, on defense, has been vulnerable especially lately and on the road.
L.A. is allowing 125 points per game in its last three games and it allows nearly five more points per game on the road than at home.
Best Bet: Grizzlies +9 at -110 with BetOnline
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Friday, February 23, 2024 at 10 p.m. ET at Target Center in Minneapolis
Milwaukee's Preference for Three-Pointers
On offense, the Bucks are rather averse to attempting shots around the basket.
They average the ninth fewest field goal attempts per game within five feet of the basket.
Conversely, they love to shoot three-pointers. They average the seventh-most three-point attempts per game.
Their dedication to shooting three-pointers is apparent in their most recent game.
They attempted 44 three-pointers against Memphis, but they lost the game because they were inefficient from deep.
Milwaukee epitomizes the team that will live or die by the three.
Minnesota's Perimeter Defense
Because Milwaukee is so reliant on three-point shooting, this game will be determined largely by whether it will live or will die by the three.
You can watch a five-minute-long video on YouTube of center Rudy Gobert defending guards by himself behind the perimeter to see an example of how Minnesota's personnel are excellently built to lock down the perimeter.
But you can also just consider the statistics: the Timberwolves allow wide-open three-point attempts at the fifth-lowest rate and open three-point attempts at the sixth-lowest rate.
Moreover, they allow the fourth-fewest three-point attempts per game.
These statistics indicate that Minnesota excels at running teams off the three-point line and at contesting the three-point shots that they do attempt.
Minnesota's defense will flourish tonight by forcing Milwaukee to try to score more inside, where the Bucks are less comfortable on offense and where they will have to contend with the likes of decorated rim protector Gobert.
Minnesota's Offense
It is hard to like Milwaukee if you don't like Milwaukee's offense.
The Bucks' defense has declined since it prioritized offense by letting go a stud defender like Jrue Holiday.
Against a Milwaukee team that ranks 23rd at limiting opposing scoring, Minnesota offense is primed to do very well tonight especially because it is sizzling right now.
The Timberwolves have scored over 120 points in each of their last four games, all of which they have won by at least twelve points.
Best Bet: Timberwolves -4 at -106 with BetOnline
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Friday, February 23, 2024 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia
Philadelphia's One-Dimensionality
This season, the 76ers have been needing three-point shooters.
They did apparently realize this because they acquired sharpshooter Buddy Hield.
However, their three-point shooting problem is too significant for one play to solve it.
In the last three games, despite the fact that Hield has played in each of them, the 76ers are averaging 10.3 made threes per game, which is actually below their season average.
They rank 27th in made threes per game.
Reliance on Scoring Inside
Philadelphia primarily wants to score inside.
The 76ers rank sixth with 32.1 field goal attempts per game within five feet of the basket.
One might think that this number has been inflated by the presence of now injured star center Joel Embiid, but it's actually the opposite.
Since Embiid's last game on January 30, the 76ers rank second with 36.8 field goal attempts per game within five feet of the basket.
Embiid, because he draws double teams, had made it easier for his teammates to get open behind the arc.
So not only do the 76ers now miss having a monstrous inside scoring threat, they also miss having the same ability to make three-pointers.
Cleveland's Rim Protection
Because Philadelphia is so reliant on scoring around the basket, it is crucial to consider Cleveland's ability to guard the basket.
I like the Cavaliers' defense tonight because the Cavs are excellent at defending this area of the floor: they allow the second-lowest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
Cleveland benefits from having, among others, center Jarrett Allen, who has always been known as a terrific rim protector throughout his career.
Embiid's Defensive Replacements
One reason why Philadelphia is 3-6 right now since Embiid's injury, in addition to losing the benefits that he yields on offense, is that also his defense is missed.
Embiiid is an annual Defensive Player of the Year candidate.
Without him, Philadelphia has to depend on significantly worse defenders to protect the rim.
Evidence for their being significantly worse than Embiid is in the "DFG%" or defensive field goal percentage stat.
Opposing players have a drastically harder time making field goals at an efficient rate against Embiid than against the defenders on whom Philadelphia now depends more strongly, Nicolas Batum and Paul Reed.
Without Embiid, Philadelphia misses too much size, strength, and shot-blocking ability.
Cleveland's Offense
With the driving ability of guard Donovan Mitchell among others, Cleveland has been more efficient than almost all other teams within five feet of the basket.
In addition to possessing weapons that can score inside, especially without having to worry about Embiid, Cleveland is more versatile offensively than the 76ers.
The Cavaliers like to shoot three-pointers, and, by posing a threat from long range with the likes of in-form Darius Garland, will have good balance on offense.
Best Bet: Cavaliers -3.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Friday, February 23, 2024 at 8 p.m. ET at FedExForum in Memphis
Key Trend
L.A. is not a team that you can trust to win by as many points as they would need to win by tonight in order to cover the spread.
The Clippers have failed to win by more than eight points in each of their last seven games.
Their defense is frequently so problematic that this trend persists even though they scored 149 points on February 5 in Atlanta.
The Last Meeting
Now, one might say that the Clippers won by nine points in their last game at Memphis.
Isn't it too dangerous to bet against them tonight?
In that game, though, the Clippers shot 15-for-31 from behind the arc.
It is extremely unlikely that they do so well from deep again, which entails that they will likely score fewer points tonight than they did in that game.
Memphis' Defense
The Grizzlies have won two in a row, holding Houston and then Milwaukee to below its points-per-game average.
So, despite how their season is going, the Grizzlies remain focused.
Their ability to hold Milwaukee, which averages over 120 points per game, to 110 points is especially impressive given Jaren Jackson Jr's absence.
Memphis clearly has other good defenders and its defense is clearly in strong form right now, but its outlook tonight would be all the stronger if he is able to play tonight. He is actually listed as 'probable' with his quadriceps injury.
Takeaway
It won't take that much good defense, anyhow, to keep the Grizzlies in cover range against a Clippers team that, on defense, has been vulnerable especially lately and on the road.
L.A. is allowing 125 points per game in its last three games and it allows nearly five more points per game on the road than at home.
Best Bet: Grizzlies +9 at -110 with BetOnline
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Friday, February 23, 2024 at 10 p.m. ET at Target Center in Minneapolis
Milwaukee's Preference for Three-Pointers
On offense, the Bucks are rather averse to attempting shots around the basket.
They average the ninth fewest field goal attempts per game within five feet of the basket.
Conversely, they love to shoot three-pointers. They average the seventh-most three-point attempts per game.
Their dedication to shooting three-pointers is apparent in their most recent game.
They attempted 44 three-pointers against Memphis, but they lost the game because they were inefficient from deep.
Milwaukee epitomizes the team that will live or die by the three.
Minnesota's Perimeter Defense
Because Milwaukee is so reliant on three-point shooting, this game will be determined largely by whether it will live or will die by the three.
You can watch a five-minute-long video on YouTube of center Rudy Gobert defending guards by himself behind the perimeter to see an example of how Minnesota's personnel are excellently built to lock down the perimeter.
But you can also just consider the statistics: the Timberwolves allow wide-open three-point attempts at the fifth-lowest rate and open three-point attempts at the sixth-lowest rate.
Moreover, they allow the fourth-fewest three-point attempts per game.
These statistics indicate that Minnesota excels at running teams off the three-point line and at contesting the three-point shots that they do attempt.
Minnesota's defense will flourish tonight by forcing Milwaukee to try to score more inside, where the Bucks are less comfortable on offense and where they will have to contend with the likes of decorated rim protector Gobert.
Minnesota's Offense
It is hard to like Milwaukee if you don't like Milwaukee's offense.
The Bucks' defense has declined since it prioritized offense by letting go a stud defender like Jrue Holiday.
Against a Milwaukee team that ranks 23rd at limiting opposing scoring, Minnesota offense is primed to do very well tonight especially because it is sizzling right now.
The Timberwolves have scored over 120 points in each of their last four games, all of which they have won by at least twelve points.
Best Bet: Timberwolves -4 at -106 with BetOnline
