Friday Thoughts

[E.T.G.]

Things are slowly turning around. Leans


WSUX -123:

Early game here. I feel like this is May 30th all over again...Still have to ask myself 100x if I am sure about this but man would it be sweet to win this game. I had the WS and Garland when they were winning 6-1 vs. Baker @ Minny earlier this yr only for one of the worst meltdowns of that week and the beginning of the end to the WSux and me. I blame this game as the start of my downfall. The WS showed some life yesterday and actually the whole series vs. the Orioles they scored runs. Going back to that first Garland game, I had the pleasure of watching that disaster and what happened was Garland had trouble with his control, walked himself into trouble and a few big hits later and the Twins were back in the game. Garland really doesn't walk a lot of guys though so I doubt he throws another 5 spot up there today. His WHIP in his L3 games is .90 and 1.16 on the yr. The Twins really did not hit the ball hard off him where as the Sox pounded Baker and then went basically hit less from the 3rd inning on against the Minny bullpen. The Twins are also having some trouble against RHP right now. The Twins are 6-2 in their L8 meetings in Chitown and the WSux are 6-2 in Garland's L8 starts vs. Minny. Garland has a long history vs. Twins having pitched in 21 games vs. them.

Barlett (.105 in 19), Castillo (.300 in 10), Cirillo (.429 in 7), Kubel (.273 in 11), Morneau (.321 in 28), Cuddyer (.276 in 29), Hunter (.240 in 50), Mauer (.133 in 15), Ford (.200 in 25), Punto (.263 in 19), Tyner (.294 in 17).

There are some concerning numbers there. Garland at home in the months of May and June = 44ip-38h-10er and if you take out the start vs. Oakland (6.1ip-10h-4er) than he has 5 starts at home of 2er or less in May and June.

I haven't talked a lot about Baker because unless you can see into the future its tough to say how he is going to pitch. This is his 2nd time facing the WS, its on the road, and he's had 2good outtings to start the yr then 3 bad ones in a row and now 3 good ones in a row, sporting a 1.80era over his L3 games. I don't think he get shelled but I don't think he pitches 8innings and posts 1er like last start vs. Detroit.


Going through the other games now

 

[E.T.G.]

I am pretty divided on this WSux game. The Under looks real nice as well. The ideal situation would be for the WS to win game 1 and than I would play the Twins in game 2 at +105. Garza >> Floyd so in a battle of young prospects, I will take the better one in the 2nd game of a DH where some old men from the Sox might be sitting out.


Orioles/Rangers Under 9.5-115:

Honestly, I don't even really care about the ump here. This game is all about numbers.

• 2.62, Guthrie's era on the yr.... 2.82, Guthrie's era in his last 3 games...2.56, Guthrie's era on the road this yr.
• 0.89Whip, Guthrie's on the yr....0.76 in his last 3 games and 0.81 on the road.
• 2.75, Kameron Loe's era in his last 3 games w/ 1.22 Whip.
• 6 runs.....Thats what Loe has given up total in his last 4 starts.
• 8,8,7,8,6.1,8......Guthrie's outting in innings pitched for his last 6 starts.
• 4-8....Both pitchers O/U on the yr or combined 8-16 on the O/U.

These two starting pitchers throwing the way they are right now deserve a total no higher than 8.

 

[E.T.G.]

White Sox ML $123 to Win $100:

Locked in. Here is the bottom line. If you didn't watch the first matchup and only look at the numbers than it looks like Garland got beat up by the Twins. In reality, up 6-1 in the 3rd the WSox and Garland had a meltdown. Walks killed him that game and there isn't much more to it. The Twins got the leadoff guy on by walking almost every inning. The WS pitchers combined for 8walks that game.. That is a huge amount of walks in most situations it leads to runs like it did for the Twins. So while the stats show 6ip-5h-6er, it really was a much better start than that but it was plagued by bad control, something Garland hasn't shown a lot of. How does the saying go "Fool me once, shame on you...Fool me twice, shame on me" or whatever. This is my revenge play on the book for stealing my money the first time.



Rockies -1:

Another lean here. I posted a little in the discussion thread about this game as well. In Francis L5 home starts he has given up 2er or less. His home numbers are thrown off by a bad April. The Phillies are a bad team vs. LHP. Kendrick:

The Sports Xchange notes: RHP Kyle Kendrick admitted after Sunday's victory that he's been pitching with a strained right groin for the past two starts, an injury that forced him to occasionally pitch from the stretch without runners on base. Kendrick, a rookie right-hander who is being counted on to stabilize the rotation in the aftermath of possible season-ending injuries to Freddy Garcia and Jon Lieber, said he tweaked his groin during a June 19 start at Cleveland and aggravated it by running to second base in the third inning Sunday. But the injury hasn't affected his performance. Kendrick is 3-0 with a 4.38 ERA in four starts since being recalled from Double-A Reading. "My velocity was a little down because it hurt to push off," said Kendrick.


While it might be nuttin, I know Francis is 100% healthy. Rockies are much better home team than they are away and pounding the Mets like that had to do a lot for their confidence.

 

[reNew Orleans]

looks like a couple solid plays. still hate the White Sux though ha

it may be raining tonight in arlington with wind around 11 mph, right now blowing slightly out to RF but slowly i think itll become a crosswind today and then slightly blowing in from LF if weather.com is right on its hour to hour forecast.

 

[E.T.G.]

looks like a couple solid plays. still hate the White Sux though ha

it may be raining tonight in arlington with wind around 11 mph, right now blowing slightly out to RF but slowly i think itll become a crosswind today and then slightly blowing in from LF if weather.com is right on its hour to hour forecast.

Oh I hate the WS, no doubt about it but these fukers better pay me today so I can go against them in game 2.


Thanks for the weather update, something to keep an eye on. I just think this total is way too high. Loe fixed something when he got sent down and its worked. Guthrie doesn't give up more than 3 in this game either imo and he pitches long into the game so that gets rid of the Oriole shitheads.

 

[reNew Orleans]

well i mean i agree with the total. and the rain to me is a plus because if it doesnt go a full nine and some how goes over it doesnt get graded with matchbook haha. but then i guess that can backfire.

GL with those plays, ill be posting in a bit and may jump on the rockies in some form.

 

[jimbo1227]

im on the chi sox in the early game as well, we cashed STL last night so lets follow that up with another win.

 

[Satyr]

Not touching the Sox and actually leaning the other way with Philly, but I can't seem to talk myself into taking them, just leaning .

Anyways, GL tonight buddy. :cheers:

 

[jimbo1227]

u and me r definately seeing eye to eye on plays lately, i checked out that balt/tex total and i hit up the under. also checked out the colorado game and liked that as well so i hit that along with the over. to finish the card i got lad -1, oak -1.5, and a risky play with tampa bay. this team is favored on the road when they have lost 9 str8 on the road, and 11 str8 overall, now that is shady. vegas may be tipping their hat with that line. this team is at the point where they r going to scratch and claw for a win. 15 str8 is the team's longest losing streak.

 

[imgn]

Arlington might be the most difficult park to gauge wind direction...
The flags and direction dont always coincide...it tends to swirl in
the upper levels due to the configuration so nearly 90% of the time
it should be takin with a grain of salt bol EVG :3_2_125:

 

[E.T.G.]

wow that piece of shit team...5-0 Twins in the 2nd.. Ummmmm ya I couldn't have been more wrong huh

 

[E.T.G.]

White Sox :36_11_6:


That is just terrible.


Rockies -1 $127.50 to Win $112.50
Texas Under 9.5 $120 to Win $100


Hopefully its a night time sweep

 

[E.T.G.]

Not touching the Sox and actually leaning the other way with Philly, but I can't seem to talk myself into taking them, just leaning .

Anyways, GL tonight buddy. :cheers:

Care to debate this? I am already locked in but wouldn't mind here a counter arguement