Friday The 13th Mlb (7/13)

reNew Orleans

Clubbin' with Rasual Butler
April: 91-69-3 +29.126 Units
May: 112-109-1 +17.898 Units
June: 79-69-2 +25.298 Units
July: 26-22-3 -1.75 Units (Pre All-Star)
Pre All-Star: 70.572 Units
All-Star Game: 0-1 -2 Units

July: 2-0 +4 Units (Post All-Star)
Post All-Star: 2-0 +4 Units

Overall: 310-271-9 +72.572 Units
Sides: 170-159 +40.958 Units
Run Lines: 20-49 -35.647 Units
Totals: 120-62-9 +67.261 Units


2-0 +4 Units yesterday. Lets keep it going, I had bad luck on 7-7-7 and now it's Friday the 13th so I'm gonna be rollin, atleast I like to think so ha.

Plays:

Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Indians UNDER 10 -103 (Perez v. Westbrook) (3 Units) W
Perez has some solid #'s vs the Indians, and likewise for Westbrook.

5 games (1-1) - 30.1 IP, 29 H, 13 ER, 4 HR, 9 BB, 26 K, 3.86 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, .257 Opp BA.

18 games (12 starts) (5-3 w/ 2 CG, 1 SO) - 86 IP, 84 H, 23 ER (32 R), 4 HR, 16 BB, 41 K, 2.41 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, .261 Opp BA

They are 3-3 O/U this year, 1 over involved Elarton, 1 game involved Sowers, and 1 game that went over involved Perez but he pitched well enough for the under in that game. I remember that game because an error lead to a couple of runs and Grienke was awful then Mastny gave up 2 in the 9th to just send it over and I had the under. BS 7 runs in bottom of the 8th and top of the 9th.

A couple of negatives:
OVER 4-0 last 4 vs LHP for Cle
OVER 4-1 last 5 games for Cle
OVER 4-1 last 5 games for KC

Under is 4-1 in last 5 games in Cleveland between these two teams.
Lots of Under trends for the pitchers in this game.

Wind blowing IN 7 mph from LF.


St. Louis Cardinals +140 (Wells v. Kendrick) (1.5 Units) L
St. Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies UNDER 10.5 -105 (2 Units) L
Wells OWNS the Phils, funny to say that he can own a team but it's true.

6 starts (5-0)
40.2 IP, 25 H, 7 R, 6 ER, 1 HR, 12 BB, 45 Ks, 1.33 ERA, .91 ERA, .172 OPP BA

and stealing this from Sparkys thread as the rosters change but still, domination.

In 91 AB v Wells, the Phillies have 14 hits, 0 Homers, 2 RBIs, 6 Walks, 25 Ks, .154 BA, .222 OB%

Kendrick got tons of run support but it's not all that surprising. He got Bailey, Pelfrey, Stanford in 3/5 starts. Danks in one but the ChiSox bullpen got lit up (Thorton). They did light up Francis but I don't think that would happen most times. Kendrick has been solid in his starts, giving them 6+ innings each start. Now he is facing the Cards, who have been struggling to score runs. Eckstein returns today but how ready will he be, it's been a month since he's played and don't see how much he could add, but should help.

The UNDER is 6-2 in their last 8 meetings and all the overwhelming OVER stats for the Phils dont scare me when the other team can't hit so the Phils bullpen won't be as much of a liability in my opinion. I can still see the Cards knocking in a few.

Wind blowing OUT to RF @ 10 mph, hopefully wouldn't send this over.


Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels UNDER 8.5 -108 (Millwood v. Escobar) (2.5 Units) W
Not going to go into stats here but Millwood has been solid recently. Decent #'s vs the Angels. Escobar's been solid all year although not the best #'s vs the Rangers. Escobar's home #'s speak for themself.

UNDER 8-2 last 10 games for Escobar vs the Rangers.
UNDER 20-6-1 last 27 for Escobar on grass
UNDER 10-1 last 11 games for the Rangers

Both solid bullpens

Wind is blowing OUT to RF @ 9mph so there's a negative.


Leans:

Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers OVER 8.5 -113 (Francis v. Capuano)
Brewers v. a LHP. Rockies have been hot, hit LHP a little better this year and .333 last 10.

Capuano some good #'s vs the Rockies though. Yost pretty much killed Capuano last game and if he keeps trying to push him like he is Capuano is going to give up runs late in his outtings.
Wind is blowing out to CF @ 7 mph.

Games between these two teams seem to go Under (7-2-1 last 10 in Mil. 13-5-1 last 19 overall).


leans on sides based mostly on value.

Texas +186
Washington +143
Cincinnati +143
Pittsburgn +141
Arizona -102 (Maddux is 1-9 lifetime vs the D-Backs)


Going to work through these in a bit, try to cut it down to around 3/4 plays.

BOL to Yall Friday the 13th :cheers:
 
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your Stl. insight is right on IMO.. Kip Wells has been outstanding recently out of the pen. Cards get Eckstein back , who was hitting about .500 his last three weeks before injury, Pujols is pissed off.. GL.
 
Good luck tonight ReNew, I think I'm gonna leave totals alone for a while. :shake:

may them hit for you buddy. :cheers:
 
With you on Royals/Tribe under. That Rangers/Angels under looked good as well, but I think Escobar was pulled for little Weaver. I would have taken Kelvim, but I have less faith in Weaver. GL
 
thanks tw - I don't feel the Cards will bounce back just yet but I do believe they start heating up soon.

thanks satyr - just stick to what works for you. you were turning it around right before break and your plays looked solid today. Totals are just easier for me to pick out.

thanks miracle - Weaver was listed yesterday night but Escobar was listed this morning on Pinny. Matchbook still has Weaver but they took the line off recently so hopefully I can bet on that game soon. You wouldnt happen to be the same Miracle on covers? I read a nice thread on them to win the NL Central with some nice odds recently by someone of the same name.


locked in a couple of bets on the STL/PHI game (Under and STL), waiting on the KC/CLE Under and the TEX/LAA Under but I think those will be my 4 plays today
 
How much did you go on those? i.e. how strongly do you feel about each one?

STL +140 (1.5 Units)
STL @ PHI UNDER 10.5 -104 (2 Units)

I plan on putting 2.5 or 3 Units on the KC/CLE Under 10 but on Pinny it was -110 dropped to -107 and I use Pinny to get a general idea of where the money is going. On Matchbook people are thinking UNDER as well because it was +100 and has been fluctuating @ -104 to -106.

TEX/LAA UNDER 8.5 I will probably put 2 Units on it.

KC/CLE is my favorite play
I like the TEX/LAA under a little more, think there is more potential for the PHI/STL game to go over than TEX/LAA.
Then STL.

Since I am attempting to bet fewer games, you won't see as many 1 Unit bets but more 1.5/2 Unit bets as my smallest bets. Hope that gives you a feel for how I will be betting during the 2H of MLB alby.
 
thanks miracle - Weaver was listed yesterday night but Escobar was listed this morning on Pinny. Matchbook still has Weaver but they took the line off recently so hopefully I can bet on that game soon. You wouldnt happen to be the same Miracle on covers? I read a nice thread on them to win the NL Central with some nice odds recently by someone of the same name.
yep, I'm on covers as well. :cheers:
 
Locked In:

Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Indians UNDER 10 -103 (Perez v. Westbrook) (3 Units)

Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels UNDER 8.5 -108 (Millwood v. Escobar) (2.5 units)

St. Louis Cardinals +140
(Wells v. Kendrick) (1.5 Units)
St. Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies UNDER 10.5 -104 (2 Units)
 
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