Friday spoiled rich kids only Discussion

GWarner27

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
leans from the BOL open:
PIT u7 +100
CIN -102
CHC +123
COL +138
TOR o9 +105
BAL +123
BOS +123
KC +118


on the radar:
NYY +103
MIL -122
 
GWarner27 said:
BAL dropped but i got +118/+113 and the same for KC
Click to expand...
like KC as well...llooking at the Dbacks against the pads tmrw as well.. got any thoughts on that Dbacks game?

can't back eovaldi in his current form
 
The Giants are 27-21 SU in Hudson's starts:

When they score less than 3 runs: 4-19 SU
When they score more than 2 runs: 23-2 SU

The Giants are 13-11 SU in Hudson's home starts:

When they score less than 3 runs: 1-11 SU
When they score more than 2 runs: 12-0 SU
 
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gsro said:
like KC as well...llooking at the Dbacks against the pads tmrw as well.. got any thoughts on that Dbacks game?

can't back eovaldi in his current form
Click to expand...

lean that way, but Tyson is one of those guys i keep waiting to put it all together and become a lights out stud. Eovaldi may not be good, but he's got stuff and a great manager who knows how to win games while he's facing a guy who may not get 12 outs and I still think the Astros are going to eventually free fall back to .500
 
GWarner27 said:
lean that way, but Tyson is one of those guys i keep waiting to put it all together and become a lights out stud. Eovaldi may not be good, but he's got stuff and a great manager who knows how to win games while he's facing a guy who may not get 12 outs and I still think the Astros are going to eventually free fall back to .500
Click to expand...
I'm on the same boat with Tyson and it seems the last 3 times I've back him he's sucked dick, not sure I want waste money on him until I see positives also think Ray is going to have a real successful career
 
Interesting card tomorrow. I lean AZ as well. I see +130 now, overnights might let us take +135. Robbie Ray is a stud. Sd is simply an average team. Kemp leading off won't mask that.
 
Wonder what cws tt will be. I don't see them having much success vs anibal.
 
Agree about Velazquez. I'm thinking he will implode soon. Guy is a ticking time bomb.

Stab tonight or tomorrow?
 
Gabe said:
Agree about Velazquez. I'm thinking he will implode soon. Guy is a ticking time bomb.

Stab tonight or tomorrow?
Click to expand...
If yanks lose tonight which I expect. Yank lovers will be all over eovaldi over night
 
Gabe said:
Interesting card tomorrow. I lean AZ as well. I see +130 now, overnights might let us take +135. Robbie Ray is a stud. Sd is simply an average team. Kemp leading off won't mask that.
Click to expand...

it directly affected the game last night when Venable was up in an RBI situation only to swing at pitches that bounced over and over and over. No clue why Kemp would ever be a leadoff hitter, besides that he's not hitting HRs

Gabe said:
Agree about Velazquez. I'm thinking he will implode soon. Guy is a ticking time bomb.

Stab tonight or tomorrow?
Click to expand...

it's not really in play range for me so i will wait, but I think the shine has worn off Velazquez after two starts where he hasn't done anything good
 
95-85 +4.67 units all bets 0.5 units.

Az +142
Balt +112
Sea +113

Waiting on tb and nyy
 
Would avoid Detroit. Sanchez has been playing great but today he is on 4 days which has been bad and has a bad ump
 
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Porcello is bad, but actually has decent numbers vs TB - pitched gems last two times he faced them and could only find 1 bad start going back 5 years.

The way Max is throwing the ball, I may have to find him a parlay partner. Am a bit concerned about number of pitches he has thrown last few starts.

Making Balt a home dog vs Clev seems a bit crazy, especially in game 1 of the series
 
C-MAN said:
Porcello is bad, but actually has decent numbers vs TB - pitched gems last two times he faced them and could only find 1 bad start going back 5 years.

The way Max is throwing the ball, I may have to find him a parlay partner. Am a bit concerned about number of pitches he has thrown last few starts.

Making Balt a home dog vs Clev seems a bit crazy, especially in game 1 of the series
Click to expand...


Porcello tries to avoid the longest losing streak of his career Friday night as Boston visits the first-place Tampa Bay Rays.

Of the 35 other pitchers to record a 3.43 ERA or lower last year, only Chris Tillman (6.22) and Stephen Strasburg (5.90) have worse marks than Porcello (5.61) this season in at least five starts. He's posted a 7.50 ERA while losing six straight outings for the second time in his career.
 
What's behind the thread title?

Gyno, what do you see in Robbie Ray that I'm not seeing?

Agree that Velasquez doesn't seem quite ready, but he seems to have the upside to top out as the best of these young Houston pitchers, if he can ever stay off the DL.
 
Robbie is solid. What's he done wrong this season?

1.05 whip, batters hitting. 209 vs him, 1.37 era on road. Always makes 100+ pitches.

What do you not like about him?
 
Gabe said:
Robbie is solid. What's he done wrong this season?

1.05 whip, batters hitting. 209 vs him, 1.37 era on road. Always makes 100+ pitches.

What do you not like about him?
Click to expand...


First post here but been lurking awhile...On to Ray...

He has a 247 babip that will regress, he is stranding 86% which will regress, his hr/9 is about half of where it is projected, he is a 5th starter on a bad team, he just played the padres last week, and when he was called up last year he threw a few good games before getting shelled every time out after.

How often has Ross pitched at home with an O/U above 6.5? I dont know the answer but I doubt it has been very often, Vegas doesn't seem to have much faith in Ray either.
 
Ray doesn't miss enough bats and walks too many guys. Lethal combo.
 
Why do people act like a high lob% is a bad thing? Most of the best pitchers have high LOB% rates. Weird.

There are opinions and facts. This is a fact, just look at the list.


[TABLE="class: table table-striped table-bordered table-hover tablesaw-swipe, width: 100%"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="align: center"]1
[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Hector Santiago
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]LAA
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]79
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]88.96%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]2
[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Zack Greinke
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]LAD
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]77
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]88.30%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]3
[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Carlos Martinez
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]STL
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]83
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]83.50%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]4
[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]A.J. Burnett
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]PIT
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]98
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]81.80%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]5
[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Dallas Keuchel
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]HOU
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]83
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]81.21%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]6
[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Max Scherzer
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]WAS
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]62
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]80.94%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]7
[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Miguel Gonzalez
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]BAL
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]63
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]80.56%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]8
[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Dan Haren
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]MIA
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]63
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]80.36%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]9
[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Gerrit Cole
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]PIT
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]84
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]80.31%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]10
[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Wei-Yin Chen
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]BAL
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]63
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]80.15%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]11
[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Shelby Miller
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]ATL
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]77
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]79.88%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]12
[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Jacob deGrom
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]NYM
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]68
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]79.81%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]13
[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Matt Harvey
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]NYM
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]64
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]79.80%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]14
[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Nick Martinez
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]TEX
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]92
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]79.58%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]15
[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Cole Hamels
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]PHI
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]84
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]79.55%
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
Most of those guys are adept at getting out of jams by making the batters swing and miss. I got no problem with guys who work efficiently and pitch to contact, but it leaves a little more to chance with runners on base. Sometimes the ball finds some open grass.
 
The best pitchers always raise their level with RISP, that's been going on for a hundred years. Didn't need stats, just eyes.
 
Ray

23 SO's in 30 innings, not great but far from terrible. 4+ So's in every game but one.

Has not given up more than 6 hits in any game.

100+ pitches in every game but 1

Has not given up more than 3 ER in any game


Young pitcher who has turned the corner or a fraud?
 
He's young, he's got that going for him. I'm not a big buyer yet.
 
The highest LOB last year was 82% by Greinke. There might be a few exceptions on the list but the top 30 from last year in regards to LOB% are basically the 30 best pitchers that are all high K pitchers. Robbie Ray does not belong on that list and you would expect him to be around the low 70s percent wise over a good sample. So as his babip regresses back to where it should his ERA will raise and his LOB% with lower.

Again, we are talking about the #5 starter for one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball here facing the same team back to back games on their turf this time, with an O/U suggesting the pads score runs tonight, stop trying so hard to like a guy you shouldnt like. Cant help the Dbacks offense going from Coors to Petco, quite a difference in ballpark and altitude to adjust too
 
A lot of teams would love that kind of production from a #5. 1.05 WHIP, 100 pitches every start. No more than 3ER in any start. Who wouldn't take that?
Can you name a better #5 starter?


I don't think Ray's ERA, WHIP or OPP BA will sustain, of course he'll regress. But he's been solid and he's 23 years old with upside. He'll probably end the season with an ERA @ 3.42 a WHIP at 1.23 and be a pretty decent pitcher. That's my opinion. I have watched two of his games, he looked pretty good and I liked his location. I feel like he is starting to learn. I could be wrong, been wrong at all but I think he's a young stud.
 
Tribe's #5 starter has a 0.00 ERA with not much less of a sample size, let's pump the brakes.
 
^ It is getting to be run season. Steamier the better. I have nothing to back this up.
 
Gabe said:
I have no feel for the Indians this season. Can you help me?
Click to expand...

I don't like betting them as a favorite, and they've been favored an awful lot for being so shitty so far. My feel is loose at best.
 
tipyerbartender said:
^ It is getting to be run season. Steamier the better. I have nothing to back this up.
Click to expand...


Does a baseball travel farther when hit in humid weather conditions? If so, what scientific principles are at work?
You might think that a baseball (or another type of ball) would not travel as far on humid day due to the moisture in the air--but just the opposite true. The air may feel "heavier" on a muggy day ,but it is not any denser; in fact, it's slightly lighter! (The sticky uncomfortable feeling most of us experience on this type of day is due to condensation hindering the evaporation of perspiration.)
When it's humid, water molecules replace the heavier oxygen and nitrogen molecules in the air. Humid air weighs less than dry air at the same temperature and pressure. Under such conditions, moving objects encounter less drag, although the difference is rather minor. On a day when the temperature is 86 degrees Fahrenheit (30 degrees Centigrade) and the relative humidy of 80 percent, the difference in density has been calculated to be about 1%. There is also a limit to how much water vapor the air can hold (and how much of a factor humidity can play), a relative humidy of 100 percent means the air is completely saturated.
 
nats might win but Phillies might score first. +185 not a bad price to lay. Feels like one of those games where the Phils score first.

Anyone agree?
 
Just woke and checked Killersports
I saw
A 10-0 supporting Arrieta
A 15-0 Trend supporting the Yanks
A 11-0 trend supporting WS under
A 10-0 supporting Dodgers over.
These trends are not in any way Locks but should be considered.
 
Took a brief look at Velasquez. These samples are much too small to be reliable but Conger was the catcher who he got hit hard with in 4.2 innings. It happened in the day and it happened on 5 days rest. Would not trust this but its something.
 
Quick question. Humid night in Milwaukee. Wind out to right and right center. Total dropped a whole run. I like over. Thoughts please
 
PITTSBURGH is 15-2 (+12.9 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Friday over the last 2 seasons.
 
Looking at Minn and WS mostly. Maybe Pitt based on that trend. Not feeling very well today so progress fairly slow but Sanchez's record does not inspire confidence today.
 
gsro said:
cant' wait to see the Hb Toronto one that one is awesome
Click to expand...

For your amusement...

Jays are 35-6 this season when they score 5 runs or more. In those games, they are averaging 8.0 runs per game.

Jays are 4-29 this season when they score 4 runs or less. In those games, they are averaging 2.4 runs per game, while giving up 4.4. Since May 5th, they're 2-18 in this situation, averaging 2.5 runs per game, while giving up 4.2.
 
  • Nationals are 4-12 in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Pitchers next start after no hitter, teams 2-9 L11
 
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