Detroit/Milwaukee under 200.5
Detroit is riding a trend of 8/9 under. They haven't eclipsed the 100 point mark since March 19 vs Phoenix, a game that actually still went under. Detroit has the 6th best defense in the NBA, and that's what they rely on to keep them in games. Even though they haven't been scoring, their defense has been consistent for them. Milwaukee is also riding an 'under' trend, 7 of their 8 last home wins (su) have gone under. That one non-cover was vs the Clippers, who are 6th in the NBA in scoring--Detroit is only 26th. As large favorites against Detroit, I expect them to win, and they win by playing strong defense, 9th in the NBA. With Detroit's leading scorer out, I expect Milwaukee to have a relatively easy time at home, all the more so, considering that Detroit has failed to cover its last 6 road games. I think this will be fairly ugly affair in which neither team hits 100. Perhaps 91-80 for Milwaukee. Lean Milwaukee -9.5 as well.
Thunder +1.5
I don't like the spot for San Antonio. They just gave up an enormous lead at home against Golden State and they have to be coming into this one road game demoralized against a team that overcame a bland start against Orlando to beat them (and cover) in overtime. On the one home game after playing three or more road games in a row, San Antonio is 1-5 ats, the one cover coming way back on November 12. OKC is one of the NBA's most reliable teams ats at home with 25-12 record ats and I expect them to improve upon that tonight.
Miami (opening number)
Miami, two days ago, rocked New York in New York by 17. Consider also that New York plays significantly better at home. New York is 20-16 ats at home, but just 19-20 ats away. The value and matchup thus lead me to expect another double digit victory for Miami at home against the same team. Miami has more to play for and they've been doing a better job at home, where they've covered 8 of their last 10. The Knicks have recently been decently competitive on the road--but mostly only insofar other teams have let them. San Antonio, for instance, had a large (18 point) half-time lead and let that lead squander so that New York could steal the cover. The teams which New York has covered on the road against recently--Utah, Clippers, Spurs, are secure in their hopes for the playoffs. The road teams that New York has recently failed to cover against and gotten blown out against, have been the more competitive teams that are fighting for their playoff lives-- they got blown out at Portland 110-95, at Detroit 112-92, and lost at Milwaukee 104-93. I absolutely put Miami in this latter category, as they are 7th in the Eastern standings, right now, barely hanging on to a playoff spot. Miami is the team with something to play for--but more than that, they are reliable at home, New York is unreliable on the road, especially so, when they fail to match the other team's motivation. I don't think Miami will let New York stay within single digits, and Miami is more than capable of blowing New York out of the water. Miami will win by double digits.
Detroit is riding a trend of 8/9 under. They haven't eclipsed the 100 point mark since March 19 vs Phoenix, a game that actually still went under. Detroit has the 6th best defense in the NBA, and that's what they rely on to keep them in games. Even though they haven't been scoring, their defense has been consistent for them. Milwaukee is also riding an 'under' trend, 7 of their 8 last home wins (su) have gone under. That one non-cover was vs the Clippers, who are 6th in the NBA in scoring--Detroit is only 26th. As large favorites against Detroit, I expect them to win, and they win by playing strong defense, 9th in the NBA. With Detroit's leading scorer out, I expect Milwaukee to have a relatively easy time at home, all the more so, considering that Detroit has failed to cover its last 6 road games. I think this will be fairly ugly affair in which neither team hits 100. Perhaps 91-80 for Milwaukee. Lean Milwaukee -9.5 as well.
Thunder +1.5
I don't like the spot for San Antonio. They just gave up an enormous lead at home against Golden State and they have to be coming into this one road game demoralized against a team that overcame a bland start against Orlando to beat them (and cover) in overtime. On the one home game after playing three or more road games in a row, San Antonio is 1-5 ats, the one cover coming way back on November 12. OKC is one of the NBA's most reliable teams ats at home with 25-12 record ats and I expect them to improve upon that tonight.
Miami (opening number)
Miami, two days ago, rocked New York in New York by 17. Consider also that New York plays significantly better at home. New York is 20-16 ats at home, but just 19-20 ats away. The value and matchup thus lead me to expect another double digit victory for Miami at home against the same team. Miami has more to play for and they've been doing a better job at home, where they've covered 8 of their last 10. The Knicks have recently been decently competitive on the road--but mostly only insofar other teams have let them. San Antonio, for instance, had a large (18 point) half-time lead and let that lead squander so that New York could steal the cover. The teams which New York has covered on the road against recently--Utah, Clippers, Spurs, are secure in their hopes for the playoffs. The road teams that New York has recently failed to cover against and gotten blown out against, have been the more competitive teams that are fighting for their playoff lives-- they got blown out at Portland 110-95, at Detroit 112-92, and lost at Milwaukee 104-93. I absolutely put Miami in this latter category, as they are 7th in the Eastern standings, right now, barely hanging on to a playoff spot. Miami is the team with something to play for--but more than that, they are reliable at home, New York is unreliable on the road, especially so, when they fail to match the other team's motivation. I don't think Miami will let New York stay within single digits, and Miami is more than capable of blowing New York out of the water. Miami will win by double digits.
