3 Player Props April 21: There's Good Value in Rays' Josh Lowe
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Friday, April 21, 2023 at 6:35 p.m. ET at PNC Park in Pittsburgh
Who Starts for the Reds?
Graham Ashcraft starts for the Reds tonight.
Ashcraft might look too good to go against given his 1.42 ERA.
But his ERA is certain to rise. He will regress at some point.
He's been stranding baserunners at a statistically unsustainable rate -- there is no way that he is going to maintain a left on base rate of over 90 percent.
His FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) is a much more modest 3.50.
This statistic makes it more transparent that he is not some sort of invulnerable ace.
Ashcraft's Profile
To the point of regression, he is sure to regress statistically against lefties.
So far, he is yielding an improbably low .043 BABIP against them. This is likewise a statistic that cannot possibly continue.
Against lefties, he favors his cutter.
This is already his favorite pitch in general, but he emphasizes it especially with lefties at the plate.
While batters aren't getting many hits against this pitch, they are doing a better job at taking advantage of it to increase their slugging rate.
This disparity -- Ashcraft's cutter has yielded one single but four extra-base hits -- helps make it more tempting to invest in a prop bet that rewards extra-base hits.
My Favorite Pirates' Batter
I want a good lefty to rely on against Ashcraft.
My choice is Bryan Reynolds, who crushes righties to the tune of a .333 BA and .684 slugging rate.
He also slugs .833 against Ashcraft's pitches from righties.
Let's count on him to record at least one extra-base hit, although two singles would also suffice for this prop bet to hit.
Best Bet: Bryan Reynolds to record 2+ total bases at -115 with Bovada
Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Friday, April 21, 2023 at 6:40 p.m. ET at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg
Who Starts for Chicago?
Michael Kopech starts for the White Sox.
Kopech is having, by far, the worst season of his career.
His main problem is the rate at which he is allowing home runs -- he is conceding 4.02 home runs per nine innings.
Most recently, he allowed two home runs in five innings against the Orioles.
This vulnerability to home runs makes prop bets that emphasize slugging particularly attractive.
I don't like home run prop bets because it is too rare to see a home run.
Batters are crushing Kopech's pitches -- he is yielding a hard contact rate of 40.4 percent so far -- and this statistical tendency should lead to extra-base hits, which we want to profit from even if they are not home runs.
Kopech's Profile
Kopech's main problem is location.
He throws, primarily, a fastball and a slider.
These two pitches combine to make up about 89 percent of his arsenal.
Heat maps show that he often leaves his fastballs and sliders in the more middle parts of the strike zone.
It is easier for batters to crush his pitches because it is easier for batters to take advantage of such poor location.
Value in Rays' Josh Lowe
My favorite Rays' batter to invest in is Josh Lowe.
I find it unbelievable that we can get him at +135 to record 2+ total bases.
For this prop bet to hit, we need him to manage at least one extra-base hit, although two singles will suffice.
He is a great candidate today because he is hot, entering today on a five-game win streak.
Also, he slugs .889 against Kopech's pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Josh Lowe to record 2+ total bases at +135 with Bovada
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees
Friday, April 21, 2023 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium
Who Starts for Toronto?
Yusei Kikuchi starts for Toronto.
Kikuchi's 4.70 ERA actually flatters him.
This surface-level statistic masks a 5.95 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding), which reflects just how poorly he is actually performing as an individual.
He has benefitted from standing runners at a statistically unsustainable 91.7-percent rate.
Kikuchi is particularly vulnerable because opponents are regularly crushing his pitches.
He is failing to generate soft contact even 10 percent of the time.
His hard contact allowed rate is 41.9 percent.
When opponents keep crushing his pitches, they are likelier to achieve extra-base hits, so we'll want to find a prop bet that rewards batters for achieving extra-base hits.
Kikuchi's Profile
Primarily, I take issue with the quality of Kikuchi's pitches.
His fastball and slider are his favorite pitches by far, yet both are evidently vulnerable to yielding hits.
Most prominently, his slider yields an atrocious .615 slugging rate, even though he throws it 33.7 percent of the time.
Kikuchi's third-favorite pitch is his change-up, which he throws 21.1 percent of the time and almost exclusively to righties.
This pitch yields a .545 slugging rate.
My Favorite Yankees' Batter
A right-handed Yankee batter will get to see Kikuchi's change-up, most likely, and almost certainly his slider.
My favorite one is Gleyber Torres.
Torres is attractive because he has already proven himself against Kikuchi.
His career slugging rate in 18 at-bats with Kikuchi on the mound is .667.
Thus, it is more than reasonable to expect him to achieve at least two singles or at least an extra-base hit.
Best Bet: Gleyber Torres to record 2+ bases at+100 with Bovada
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Friday, April 21, 2023 at 6:35 p.m. ET at PNC Park in Pittsburgh
Who Starts for the Reds?
Graham Ashcraft starts for the Reds tonight.
Ashcraft might look too good to go against given his 1.42 ERA.
But his ERA is certain to rise. He will regress at some point.
He's been stranding baserunners at a statistically unsustainable rate -- there is no way that he is going to maintain a left on base rate of over 90 percent.
His FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) is a much more modest 3.50.
This statistic makes it more transparent that he is not some sort of invulnerable ace.
Ashcraft's Profile
To the point of regression, he is sure to regress statistically against lefties.
So far, he is yielding an improbably low .043 BABIP against them. This is likewise a statistic that cannot possibly continue.
Against lefties, he favors his cutter.
This is already his favorite pitch in general, but he emphasizes it especially with lefties at the plate.
While batters aren't getting many hits against this pitch, they are doing a better job at taking advantage of it to increase their slugging rate.
This disparity -- Ashcraft's cutter has yielded one single but four extra-base hits -- helps make it more tempting to invest in a prop bet that rewards extra-base hits.
My Favorite Pirates' Batter
I want a good lefty to rely on against Ashcraft.
My choice is Bryan Reynolds, who crushes righties to the tune of a .333 BA and .684 slugging rate.
He also slugs .833 against Ashcraft's pitches from righties.
Let's count on him to record at least one extra-base hit, although two singles would also suffice for this prop bet to hit.
Best Bet: Bryan Reynolds to record 2+ total bases at -115 with Bovada
Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Friday, April 21, 2023 at 6:40 p.m. ET at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg
Who Starts for Chicago?
Michael Kopech starts for the White Sox.
Kopech is having, by far, the worst season of his career.
His main problem is the rate at which he is allowing home runs -- he is conceding 4.02 home runs per nine innings.
Most recently, he allowed two home runs in five innings against the Orioles.
This vulnerability to home runs makes prop bets that emphasize slugging particularly attractive.
I don't like home run prop bets because it is too rare to see a home run.
Batters are crushing Kopech's pitches -- he is yielding a hard contact rate of 40.4 percent so far -- and this statistical tendency should lead to extra-base hits, which we want to profit from even if they are not home runs.
Kopech's Profile
Kopech's main problem is location.
He throws, primarily, a fastball and a slider.
These two pitches combine to make up about 89 percent of his arsenal.
Heat maps show that he often leaves his fastballs and sliders in the more middle parts of the strike zone.
It is easier for batters to crush his pitches because it is easier for batters to take advantage of such poor location.
Value in Rays' Josh Lowe
My favorite Rays' batter to invest in is Josh Lowe.
I find it unbelievable that we can get him at +135 to record 2+ total bases.
For this prop bet to hit, we need him to manage at least one extra-base hit, although two singles will suffice.
He is a great candidate today because he is hot, entering today on a five-game win streak.
Also, he slugs .889 against Kopech's pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Josh Lowe to record 2+ total bases at +135 with Bovada
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees
Friday, April 21, 2023 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium
Who Starts for Toronto?
Yusei Kikuchi starts for Toronto.
Kikuchi's 4.70 ERA actually flatters him.
This surface-level statistic masks a 5.95 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding), which reflects just how poorly he is actually performing as an individual.
He has benefitted from standing runners at a statistically unsustainable 91.7-percent rate.
Kikuchi is particularly vulnerable because opponents are regularly crushing his pitches.
He is failing to generate soft contact even 10 percent of the time.
His hard contact allowed rate is 41.9 percent.
When opponents keep crushing his pitches, they are likelier to achieve extra-base hits, so we'll want to find a prop bet that rewards batters for achieving extra-base hits.
Kikuchi's Profile
Primarily, I take issue with the quality of Kikuchi's pitches.
His fastball and slider are his favorite pitches by far, yet both are evidently vulnerable to yielding hits.
Most prominently, his slider yields an atrocious .615 slugging rate, even though he throws it 33.7 percent of the time.
Kikuchi's third-favorite pitch is his change-up, which he throws 21.1 percent of the time and almost exclusively to righties.
This pitch yields a .545 slugging rate.
My Favorite Yankees' Batter
A right-handed Yankee batter will get to see Kikuchi's change-up, most likely, and almost certainly his slider.
My favorite one is Gleyber Torres.
Torres is attractive because he has already proven himself against Kikuchi.
His career slugging rate in 18 at-bats with Kikuchi on the mound is .667.
Thus, it is more than reasonable to expect him to achieve at least two singles or at least an extra-base hit.
Best Bet: Gleyber Torres to record 2+ bases at+100 with Bovada
