Best MLB Player Props for June 9: Luis Castillo and Marcus Stroman to Remain Elite
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels
Friday, June 9, 203 at 9:38 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium in Anaheim
Luis Castillo (Seattle)
Seattle starts Luis Castillo tonight.
As evident in the fact that he ranks ninth in ERA, Castillo is one of baseball's best pitchers this season.
In his most recent starts, he is pitching even more strongly than ninth-best: he has allowed a total of one run in his last three starts, which totaled 19 innings.
His last start was arguably his most impressive one: he allowed one run in seven innings to a Texas team that ranks number one in runs per game.
Castillo is so successful because he relies on various pitches, each of which is hard for batters to hit.
The fastball, slider, and sinker are his three favorite pitches to throw.
Batters hit .190 against his fastball, .167 against his slider, and .203 against his sinker.
His fastball and slider are especially helpful for his strikeout rate.
For his fastball, he relies on high velocity -- this pitch averages 96 mph -- and on good locational variety in that he evenly distributes it along both sides of the plate.
Relative to his fastball, his slider is much slower, so that he can use either pitch to keep hitters off balance by creating an intense change of pace.
He'll also use the fastball and slider to change the batter's eye level in that he likes to bury his slider and elevate his fastball, thus further keeping hitters off-balance.
The Pick
Tonight, Castillo's outlook is especially strong because the Angels rank last in slugging .334 against his pitches from righties.
In addition to matching up poorly against him, their history against him is already bad.
Of teams that he's faced multiple times, the Angels rank tied for the second-lowest BA against him: in three starts against the Angels, he's yielding a .167 BA.
For the above reasons, expect Castillo to allow fewer than five hits for the third time in his last four starts.
Best Bet: Luis Castillo under 4.5 hits allowed at +100 with BetMGM
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants
Friday, June 9, 2023 at 10:15 p.m. ET at Oracle Park in San Francisco
Marcus Stroman (Cubs)
Marcus Stroman starts for the Cubs tonight.
Stroman is a top-tier pitcher: he ranks eighth in ERA.
He is also pitching as well as anyone right now: he has allowed a combined total of three earned runs in his last four starts.
Moreover, he has allowed zero earned runs in his last two starts.
His most impressive start came on May 29 when he held the mighty Rays to one hit and one walk in nine innings.
Stroman's pitching arsenal is laden with quality pitches.
He relies most especially on his sinker and slurve, which yield a .191 BA and .180 BA, respectively.
With both pitches, he does a great job of avoiding the middle of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage.
While his sinker enjoys strong movement, his slurve is hard for batters to track with its high spin rate.
High spin rate is a typical feature of Stroman's pitches in general in addition to strong location.
Two other pitches that he'll mix in less extensively and that likewise show good spin and good location are his cutter and fastball.
The former pitch yields a .179 BA while opponents are batting .043 against his fastball.
The Giants
San Francisco's lineup is in an awful spot because tonight is its first game back from hitting in Coors Field in Denver.
It is difficult to adjust from batting in a super hitters-friendly ballpark to batting in a pitcher-friendly one.
Even if the Giants weren't in this bad spot, they match up poorly against Stroman.
They rank 26th in slugging against his two favorite pitches from righties.
Furthermore, Stroman himself is in a good spot because he likes pitching in San Francisco where he enjoys a 2.37 ERA in three career starts.
Best Bet: Marcus Stroman under 2.5 total earned runs allowed at -125 with BetMGM
Anthony DeSclafani (Giants)
Anthony DeSclafani starts for San Francisco tonight.
He is one of the less obvious candidates to invest in because of his last start in which the Orioles accrued five earned runs against him.
One cannot discount DeSclafani tonight, because the Orioles, one of the best teams in baseball, are tough.
Baseball betting is too complex to judge a pitcher solely based on the number of runs he's allowed because there are other factors in play that are often more predictive.
DeSclafani, in his last start, did a great job of inducing soft contact.
What is likewise critical to note is that, in terms of producing spin and velocity in his pitches and in terms of throwing strikes (as evident in his first-pitch strike rate), he looked great.
The Matchup
DeSclafani has a great track record this season against the teams that match up really poorly with him.
So it is decisive for our bet that he gets an easier test.
Like the White Sox, Tigers, and Royals teams that he held to a combined total of three earned runs, the Cubs slug below .390 against his four favorite pitches from righties.
Moreover, he already has a strong track record against Cubs' batters.
Only Ian Happ, who happens to be suffering terrible form right now -- he is slugging .182 in June -- has an extra-base hit (a double) off him.
Overall, the Cubs are hitting very poorly.
They have mustered seven runs in their past four games combined.
The West Coast has not been kind to their lineup.
Best Bet: Anthony DeSclafani under 2.5 total earned runs allowed at -154 with BetMGM
- Luis Castillo under 4.5 total hits allowed at +100 with BetMGM
- Marcus Stroman under 2.5 total earned runs allowed at -125 with BetMGM
- Anthony DeSclafani under 2.5 total earned runs allowed at -154 with BetMGM
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels
Friday, June 9, 203 at 9:38 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium in Anaheim
Luis Castillo (Seattle)
Seattle starts Luis Castillo tonight.
As evident in the fact that he ranks ninth in ERA, Castillo is one of baseball's best pitchers this season.
In his most recent starts, he is pitching even more strongly than ninth-best: he has allowed a total of one run in his last three starts, which totaled 19 innings.
His last start was arguably his most impressive one: he allowed one run in seven innings to a Texas team that ranks number one in runs per game.
Castillo is so successful because he relies on various pitches, each of which is hard for batters to hit.
The fastball, slider, and sinker are his three favorite pitches to throw.
Batters hit .190 against his fastball, .167 against his slider, and .203 against his sinker.
His fastball and slider are especially helpful for his strikeout rate.
For his fastball, he relies on high velocity -- this pitch averages 96 mph -- and on good locational variety in that he evenly distributes it along both sides of the plate.
Relative to his fastball, his slider is much slower, so that he can use either pitch to keep hitters off balance by creating an intense change of pace.
He'll also use the fastball and slider to change the batter's eye level in that he likes to bury his slider and elevate his fastball, thus further keeping hitters off-balance.
The Pick
Tonight, Castillo's outlook is especially strong because the Angels rank last in slugging .334 against his pitches from righties.
In addition to matching up poorly against him, their history against him is already bad.
Of teams that he's faced multiple times, the Angels rank tied for the second-lowest BA against him: in three starts against the Angels, he's yielding a .167 BA.
For the above reasons, expect Castillo to allow fewer than five hits for the third time in his last four starts.
Best Bet: Luis Castillo under 4.5 hits allowed at +100 with BetMGM
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants
Friday, June 9, 2023 at 10:15 p.m. ET at Oracle Park in San Francisco
Marcus Stroman (Cubs)
Marcus Stroman starts for the Cubs tonight.
Stroman is a top-tier pitcher: he ranks eighth in ERA.
He is also pitching as well as anyone right now: he has allowed a combined total of three earned runs in his last four starts.
Moreover, he has allowed zero earned runs in his last two starts.
His most impressive start came on May 29 when he held the mighty Rays to one hit and one walk in nine innings.
Stroman's pitching arsenal is laden with quality pitches.
He relies most especially on his sinker and slurve, which yield a .191 BA and .180 BA, respectively.
With both pitches, he does a great job of avoiding the middle of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage.
While his sinker enjoys strong movement, his slurve is hard for batters to track with its high spin rate.
High spin rate is a typical feature of Stroman's pitches in general in addition to strong location.
Two other pitches that he'll mix in less extensively and that likewise show good spin and good location are his cutter and fastball.
The former pitch yields a .179 BA while opponents are batting .043 against his fastball.
The Giants
San Francisco's lineup is in an awful spot because tonight is its first game back from hitting in Coors Field in Denver.
It is difficult to adjust from batting in a super hitters-friendly ballpark to batting in a pitcher-friendly one.
Even if the Giants weren't in this bad spot, they match up poorly against Stroman.
They rank 26th in slugging against his two favorite pitches from righties.
Furthermore, Stroman himself is in a good spot because he likes pitching in San Francisco where he enjoys a 2.37 ERA in three career starts.
Best Bet: Marcus Stroman under 2.5 total earned runs allowed at -125 with BetMGM
Anthony DeSclafani (Giants)
Anthony DeSclafani starts for San Francisco tonight.
He is one of the less obvious candidates to invest in because of his last start in which the Orioles accrued five earned runs against him.
One cannot discount DeSclafani tonight, because the Orioles, one of the best teams in baseball, are tough.
Baseball betting is too complex to judge a pitcher solely based on the number of runs he's allowed because there are other factors in play that are often more predictive.
DeSclafani, in his last start, did a great job of inducing soft contact.
What is likewise critical to note is that, in terms of producing spin and velocity in his pitches and in terms of throwing strikes (as evident in his first-pitch strike rate), he looked great.
The Matchup
DeSclafani has a great track record this season against the teams that match up really poorly with him.
So it is decisive for our bet that he gets an easier test.
Like the White Sox, Tigers, and Royals teams that he held to a combined total of three earned runs, the Cubs slug below .390 against his four favorite pitches from righties.
Moreover, he already has a strong track record against Cubs' batters.
Only Ian Happ, who happens to be suffering terrible form right now -- he is slugging .182 in June -- has an extra-base hit (a double) off him.
Overall, the Cubs are hitting very poorly.
They have mustered seven runs in their past four games combined.
The West Coast has not been kind to their lineup.
Best Bet: Anthony DeSclafani under 2.5 total earned runs allowed at -154 with BetMGM
