NHL Picks Today: Friday, December 5
Buffalo Sabres vs. Winnipeg Jets
A superficial look at Winnipeg’s schedule might suggest that the Jets are worth fading. But consider that all of their recent losses took place on the road or against winning teams like Carolina and Minnesota. The Jets tonight finally get a very beatable team at home. Given their recent losses, they will be extra focused in order to finally get back on track. They certainly have the personnel to get more wins. Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor, and Gabriel Vilardi are all healthy and have all scored more than ten goals. The Jets have been somewhat top-heavy so far, but based on their goal-scoring stats in previous seasons guys like Jonathan Toews and Cole Perfetti should begin producing more.
Location matters. Winnipeg’s outlook is great against a Buffalo team that has two wins in eleven road games this year. The Jets have excelled against sub-elite teams – like Nashville, Columbus, and Calgary – in general at home and are undefeated at home against losing teams. Winnipeg is thus an eminently reliable option tonight.
Utah Mammoth vs. Vancouver Canucks
Utah is coming off a 7-0 win over Anaheim. Crucially, the Mammoth are not a team that typically suffers a let-down after a great performance. For example, on October 30 they beat Chicago by three goals before beating Pittsburgh by three goals in their following game. There is thus zero reason to worry about investing in them tonight as they face a Vancouver team that is struggling severely right now. The Canucks have lost three games in a row, six of their last seven, and nine of their last eleven. They are down multiple valuable goal-scorers and are missing goaltending depth. With negligible healthy talent to offer at the moment, Vancouver will continue its freefall.
Washington Capitals vs. Anaheim Ducks
Washington looks like an auto-bet given its ongoing win streak. But streaks can lead to lazy betting. Sometimes a bettor should think that, based on any reasonable assessment of a team’s quality, it would make sense for a streak to end. It is time for Washington to finally lose a game. I am not just expressing a “hunch.” Instead, advanced metrics tell us that the Capitals should be allowing a much higher goal total. Their “expected goals allowed” total is drastically higher than their goals allowed total.
Tonight is a great spot for a Washington loss because Washington’s offense has looked meek at the end of road trips and Anaheim is in a great spot: the Ducks are 4-0 in their last four games that directly followed a loss. The Ducks have one of the highest-ranked goal-scoring offenses, so they are extra reliable tonight and generally in these favorable situations.
| Matchup | Pick | Odds | Confidence Level | Sportsbook |
| Sabres vs. Jets | Jets ML | -135 | Highest | BetMGM |
| Mammoth vs. Canucks | Mammoth ML | -130 | Highest | BetMGM |
| Capitals vs. Ducks | Ducks ML | +118 | Highest | Caesars |
Buffalo Sabres vs. Winnipeg Jets
A superficial look at Winnipeg’s schedule might suggest that the Jets are worth fading. But consider that all of their recent losses took place on the road or against winning teams like Carolina and Minnesota. The Jets tonight finally get a very beatable team at home. Given their recent losses, they will be extra focused in order to finally get back on track. They certainly have the personnel to get more wins. Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor, and Gabriel Vilardi are all healthy and have all scored more than ten goals. The Jets have been somewhat top-heavy so far, but based on their goal-scoring stats in previous seasons guys like Jonathan Toews and Cole Perfetti should begin producing more.
Location matters. Winnipeg’s outlook is great against a Buffalo team that has two wins in eleven road games this year. The Jets have excelled against sub-elite teams – like Nashville, Columbus, and Calgary – in general at home and are undefeated at home against losing teams. Winnipeg is thus an eminently reliable option tonight.
Utah Mammoth vs. Vancouver Canucks
Utah is coming off a 7-0 win over Anaheim. Crucially, the Mammoth are not a team that typically suffers a let-down after a great performance. For example, on October 30 they beat Chicago by three goals before beating Pittsburgh by three goals in their following game. There is thus zero reason to worry about investing in them tonight as they face a Vancouver team that is struggling severely right now. The Canucks have lost three games in a row, six of their last seven, and nine of their last eleven. They are down multiple valuable goal-scorers and are missing goaltending depth. With negligible healthy talent to offer at the moment, Vancouver will continue its freefall.
Washington Capitals vs. Anaheim Ducks
Washington looks like an auto-bet given its ongoing win streak. But streaks can lead to lazy betting. Sometimes a bettor should think that, based on any reasonable assessment of a team’s quality, it would make sense for a streak to end. It is time for Washington to finally lose a game. I am not just expressing a “hunch.” Instead, advanced metrics tell us that the Capitals should be allowing a much higher goal total. Their “expected goals allowed” total is drastically higher than their goals allowed total.
Tonight is a great spot for a Washington loss because Washington’s offense has looked meek at the end of road trips and Anaheim is in a great spot: the Ducks are 4-0 in their last four games that directly followed a loss. The Ducks have one of the highest-ranked goal-scoring offenses, so they are extra reliable tonight and generally in these favorable situations.