MLB Best Bets for April 4: Tonight Closes With Low-Scoring Fun
New York Yankees vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Friday, April 4, 2025 at 4:12 p.m. ET at PNC Park
New York's Starter
Max Fried starts for the Yankees today.
A two-time All-Star, Fried has earned his reputation as a strong starting pitcher.
It is notoriously difficult to pitch in front of the Yankee crowd with its high expectations. So Fried should be forgiven for not being at his best in his debut as a Yankee where he allowed two earned runs in 4.2 innings.
His team did still win the game. It is easy for a pitcher to be a part of his team's victory when it scores 20 runs.
Yankees vs. Pirates Batters
Fried is going to be sharper in his second start as a Yankee.
As a lefty, he is also going to have an easier test in the form of a Pittsburgh team that, by a clear margin, ranks dead-last against left-handed pitching.
The Pirates slug .077 against left-handed pitching.
While the data sample is small, 1-for-13 is a stat line that justifiably creates pessimism.
Moreover, the Pirates have a more extensive track record against Fried that reinforces this pessimism.
In 93 at-bats, they slug .290 against him.
Pittsburgh's Starter
Mitch Keller starts for the Pirates today.
Keller did have a great debut to his season, but it came against the low-talent Marlins.
The test that he'll encounter today is insuperably more difficult.
Whereas the Marlins rank 18th in slugging, the Yankees rank number one in slugging.
Keller vs. Yankees Batters
Each of New York's wins thus far have come by multiple runs largely because the strength of its lineup easily suffices to procure larger leads for its pitchers.
The Yankees must be expected to continue their strong form against Keller.
In 62 at-bats, they own a .532 slugging rate with him on the mound.
Cody Bellinger and Trent Grisham, for example, are combined 10-for-24 against him.
Best Bet: First-Half Yankees Run-Line at -106 with BetOnline
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Friday, April 4, 2025 at 6:45 p.m. ET at Nationals Park
Washington's Starter
Jake Irvin starts for the Nationals today after he faced the Phillies in his last start.
Irvin's first time facing Philadelphia's batters went well. But then they saw him again.
In his second time through the order, Irvin allowed four hits, including a double and a home run.
Irvin is a characteristically predictable pitcher. He has tried to reduce this predictability by adding more pitches to his arsenal, but he is struggling to make those pitches effective. This is why he is, like last. year, continuing to struggle against batters who've faced him before in a given game.
Irvin vs. Diamondbacks Batters
Arizona's batters will not need much time before they do damage to Irvin, because they match up exceedingly well against him.
Primarily, he throws a curveball, changeup, four-seam fastball, and a sinker.
Unfortunately for him, they rank second with a .627 slugging rate against these pitches from righties.
Arizona's Starter
Brandon Pfaadt starts for the Diamondbacks tonight.
In his first start, Pfaadt allowed three earned runs in six innings against the Cubs.
While this is a mediocre performance, it is worrying that he performed this poorly against the Cubs after he did so well last season in his starts against them.
Pfaadt vs. Nationals Batters
Pfaadt's outlook is negative against Washington's batters.
He throws a four-seam fastball, sweeper, changeup, curveball, and sinker.
Washington's batters rank eighth with a .453 slugging rate against those pitches from righties.
Their matchup advantage will allow them to keep pace with Arizona in what will be a high-scoring affair.
Best Bet: First-Half Over 4.5 at -113 with BetOnline
Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels
Friday, April 4, 2025 at 9:38 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium
Cleveland's Starter
Gavin Williams starts for the Guardians tonight.
In his first start, Williams allowed two earned runs in five innings in Kansas City.
While his ERA wasn't great, it belies the quality of his start.
He did a fantastic job of creating soft contact while limiting hard contact.
His 2.63 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) reflects how well he truly performed.
Los Angeles' Starter
Jose Soriano starts for the Angels tonight.
Soriano threw seven shutout innings in his first start. He allowed all of two hits.
Thus, like Williams, he enters tonight's game after a strong opening performance.
Matchups Favor the Pitchers
Both starters own a particularly strong outlook tonight because of their respective matchup advantages.
The Angels slug .279 against Williams' pitches from righties.
Likewise, the Guardians slug .297 against Soriano's favorite pitches from righties.
With both starters looking good, they will take full advantage of their matchup edge.
Best Bet: First-Half Under 4 at -113 with BetOnline
New York Yankees vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Friday, April 4, 2025 at 4:12 p.m. ET at PNC Park
New York's Starter
Max Fried starts for the Yankees today.
A two-time All-Star, Fried has earned his reputation as a strong starting pitcher.
It is notoriously difficult to pitch in front of the Yankee crowd with its high expectations. So Fried should be forgiven for not being at his best in his debut as a Yankee where he allowed two earned runs in 4.2 innings.
His team did still win the game. It is easy for a pitcher to be a part of his team's victory when it scores 20 runs.
Yankees vs. Pirates Batters
Fried is going to be sharper in his second start as a Yankee.
As a lefty, he is also going to have an easier test in the form of a Pittsburgh team that, by a clear margin, ranks dead-last against left-handed pitching.
The Pirates slug .077 against left-handed pitching.
While the data sample is small, 1-for-13 is a stat line that justifiably creates pessimism.
Moreover, the Pirates have a more extensive track record against Fried that reinforces this pessimism.
In 93 at-bats, they slug .290 against him.
Pittsburgh's Starter
Mitch Keller starts for the Pirates today.
Keller did have a great debut to his season, but it came against the low-talent Marlins.
The test that he'll encounter today is insuperably more difficult.
Whereas the Marlins rank 18th in slugging, the Yankees rank number one in slugging.
Keller vs. Yankees Batters
Each of New York's wins thus far have come by multiple runs largely because the strength of its lineup easily suffices to procure larger leads for its pitchers.
The Yankees must be expected to continue their strong form against Keller.
In 62 at-bats, they own a .532 slugging rate with him on the mound.
Cody Bellinger and Trent Grisham, for example, are combined 10-for-24 against him.
Best Bet: First-Half Yankees Run-Line at -106 with BetOnline
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Friday, April 4, 2025 at 6:45 p.m. ET at Nationals Park
Washington's Starter
Jake Irvin starts for the Nationals today after he faced the Phillies in his last start.
Irvin's first time facing Philadelphia's batters went well. But then they saw him again.
In his second time through the order, Irvin allowed four hits, including a double and a home run.
Irvin is a characteristically predictable pitcher. He has tried to reduce this predictability by adding more pitches to his arsenal, but he is struggling to make those pitches effective. This is why he is, like last. year, continuing to struggle against batters who've faced him before in a given game.
Irvin vs. Diamondbacks Batters
Arizona's batters will not need much time before they do damage to Irvin, because they match up exceedingly well against him.
Primarily, he throws a curveball, changeup, four-seam fastball, and a sinker.
Unfortunately for him, they rank second with a .627 slugging rate against these pitches from righties.
Arizona's Starter
Brandon Pfaadt starts for the Diamondbacks tonight.
In his first start, Pfaadt allowed three earned runs in six innings against the Cubs.
While this is a mediocre performance, it is worrying that he performed this poorly against the Cubs after he did so well last season in his starts against them.
Pfaadt vs. Nationals Batters
Pfaadt's outlook is negative against Washington's batters.
He throws a four-seam fastball, sweeper, changeup, curveball, and sinker.
Washington's batters rank eighth with a .453 slugging rate against those pitches from righties.
Their matchup advantage will allow them to keep pace with Arizona in what will be a high-scoring affair.
Best Bet: First-Half Over 4.5 at -113 with BetOnline
Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels
Friday, April 4, 2025 at 9:38 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium
Cleveland's Starter
Gavin Williams starts for the Guardians tonight.
In his first start, Williams allowed two earned runs in five innings in Kansas City.
While his ERA wasn't great, it belies the quality of his start.
He did a fantastic job of creating soft contact while limiting hard contact.
His 2.63 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) reflects how well he truly performed.
Los Angeles' Starter
Jose Soriano starts for the Angels tonight.
Soriano threw seven shutout innings in his first start. He allowed all of two hits.
Thus, like Williams, he enters tonight's game after a strong opening performance.
Matchups Favor the Pitchers
Both starters own a particularly strong outlook tonight because of their respective matchup advantages.
The Angels slug .279 against Williams' pitches from righties.
Likewise, the Guardians slug .297 against Soriano's favorite pitches from righties.
With both starters looking good, they will take full advantage of their matchup edge.
Best Bet: First-Half Under 4 at -113 with BetOnline
