Basketball Betting Analysis: Our Top NBA Picks for June 25
Atlanta Hawks vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Friday, June 25, 2021 at 8:30 p.m. ET (TNT) at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee
Coaching vs. Personnel
The biggest reason why Game 1 concluded in Atlanta's favor was Trae Young, who scored 48 points.
I realize that, before Game 1, I talked about why I liked Trae to perform really well.
Part of my confidence in Trae was a product of my lack of faith in Milwaukee coach Mike Budenholzer, who tends to fail to have his team prepared for Game 1 of a new series.
But one has to recognize that, in a series, things change from game to game.
It's easy to continue to lack faith in Coach Bud, who many Buck supporters dislike for valid reasons.
There are, however, two things to note.
One, Milwaukee has already shown that it has the capability to limit Trae.
When facing the Bucks on April 15, Trae mustered 15 points off 17 field goal attempts.
The Bucks own the personnel to limit Trae.
So the second thing to note is that we don't have to trust Coach Bud because he already showed in the later stages of Game 1 that he knows how to implement the weaponry to limit Trae. This is the basis for my support of Milwaukee for tonight's game.
Giannis and Transition Play
Late in Game 1, Coach Bud sought to depart from Milwaukee's constantly ineffective drop coverage.
By having a small-ball lineup with Giannis at the five, the Bucks had an easier time switching.
With his length at 6-11, Giannis was able to disrupt Trae. In two late-game possessions, Giannis used his length to deter Trae from driving.
Instead of letting Trae drive, Giannis compelled him to attempt long three-point attempts.
Because the Bucks found success with Giannis defensively, we can assume that we'll see a lot more of Giannis on Trae in Game 2.
So we're not having to trust Coach Bud for tonight's game because we already know that he already knows how to limit Trae.
Regarding the long and contested three-point attempts that Trae resorted to when guarded by Giannis, these are harder to convert than layups, of course.
Because of the way they bounce off the rim, these bad shot attempts encourage the opponent to attack in transition.
Giannis is one strong reason why the Bucks are scoring the fourth-most points in transition out of any team in this year's playoffs.
Other Guys
Other guys will try to step up for Trae. But as the 76er blowouts early in the last series show, Trae can't rely on teammates to accomplish nearly the level of offensive productivity that he is capable of when confronting more palatable match-ups.
Cam Reddish is still working back from his prior injury.
More important, Bogdan Bogdanovic still doesn't look right with his injured knee, for which reason he only played 27 minutes in Game 1.
His knee injury restricted his movement, making him easier to guard. Bogie, who is Atlanta's third-leading scorer this postseason, is listed as 'questionable' for tonight's game.
First Quarter
I like Milwaukee specifically in the first quarter -- the Bucks should also cover the first-half spread -- because I lack confidence in Milwaukee's ability to sustain offense over the course of four quarters.
Their top scorers get tired down the stretch -- which helps explain the team's inability to close out Atlanta -- partly because they are tasked with so much responsibility largely as a result of the fact that they lack depth and support.
Down 1-0, Milwaukee is in an urgent situation. The Bucks can't afford to lose two home games and go down 0-2, in which case they would have to travel to Atlanta needing two win two road games.
Already in these playoffs, there exists ample precedent for a strong Milwaukee start at home following a disappointing game.
After nearly giving away Game 1 against vastly inferior Miami, the Bucks won the first quarter in Game 2 at home 46-20.
Similarly, after losing both Game 1 and Game 2 at Brooklyn, Milwaukee won the first quarter of Game 3 at home 30-11. That game actually ended up being very close.
Most recently, the Bucks bounced back at home after losing at Brooklyn. In this game, Game 6, they won the first quarter 26-19.
So expect them to assert themselves from the beginning.
Best Bet: Bucks First Quarter -3 at -110 with BetOnline
Atlanta Hawks vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Friday, June 25, 2021 at 8:30 p.m. ET (TNT) at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee
Coaching vs. Personnel
The biggest reason why Game 1 concluded in Atlanta's favor was Trae Young, who scored 48 points.
I realize that, before Game 1, I talked about why I liked Trae to perform really well.
Part of my confidence in Trae was a product of my lack of faith in Milwaukee coach Mike Budenholzer, who tends to fail to have his team prepared for Game 1 of a new series.
But one has to recognize that, in a series, things change from game to game.
It's easy to continue to lack faith in Coach Bud, who many Buck supporters dislike for valid reasons.
There are, however, two things to note.
One, Milwaukee has already shown that it has the capability to limit Trae.
When facing the Bucks on April 15, Trae mustered 15 points off 17 field goal attempts.
The Bucks own the personnel to limit Trae.
So the second thing to note is that we don't have to trust Coach Bud because he already showed in the later stages of Game 1 that he knows how to implement the weaponry to limit Trae. This is the basis for my support of Milwaukee for tonight's game.
Giannis and Transition Play
Late in Game 1, Coach Bud sought to depart from Milwaukee's constantly ineffective drop coverage.
By having a small-ball lineup with Giannis at the five, the Bucks had an easier time switching.
With his length at 6-11, Giannis was able to disrupt Trae. In two late-game possessions, Giannis used his length to deter Trae from driving.
Instead of letting Trae drive, Giannis compelled him to attempt long three-point attempts.
Because the Bucks found success with Giannis defensively, we can assume that we'll see a lot more of Giannis on Trae in Game 2.
So we're not having to trust Coach Bud for tonight's game because we already know that he already knows how to limit Trae.
Regarding the long and contested three-point attempts that Trae resorted to when guarded by Giannis, these are harder to convert than layups, of course.
Because of the way they bounce off the rim, these bad shot attempts encourage the opponent to attack in transition.
Giannis is one strong reason why the Bucks are scoring the fourth-most points in transition out of any team in this year's playoffs.
Other Guys
Other guys will try to step up for Trae. But as the 76er blowouts early in the last series show, Trae can't rely on teammates to accomplish nearly the level of offensive productivity that he is capable of when confronting more palatable match-ups.
Cam Reddish is still working back from his prior injury.
More important, Bogdan Bogdanovic still doesn't look right with his injured knee, for which reason he only played 27 minutes in Game 1.
His knee injury restricted his movement, making him easier to guard. Bogie, who is Atlanta's third-leading scorer this postseason, is listed as 'questionable' for tonight's game.
First Quarter
I like Milwaukee specifically in the first quarter -- the Bucks should also cover the first-half spread -- because I lack confidence in Milwaukee's ability to sustain offense over the course of four quarters.
Their top scorers get tired down the stretch -- which helps explain the team's inability to close out Atlanta -- partly because they are tasked with so much responsibility largely as a result of the fact that they lack depth and support.
Down 1-0, Milwaukee is in an urgent situation. The Bucks can't afford to lose two home games and go down 0-2, in which case they would have to travel to Atlanta needing two win two road games.
Already in these playoffs, there exists ample precedent for a strong Milwaukee start at home following a disappointing game.
After nearly giving away Game 1 against vastly inferior Miami, the Bucks won the first quarter in Game 2 at home 46-20.
Similarly, after losing both Game 1 and Game 2 at Brooklyn, Milwaukee won the first quarter of Game 3 at home 30-11. That game actually ended up being very close.
Most recently, the Bucks bounced back at home after losing at Brooklyn. In this game, Game 6, they won the first quarter 26-19.
So expect them to assert themselves from the beginning.
Best Bet: Bucks First Quarter -3 at -110 with BetOnline
