Basketball Betting Analysis: Our Top NBA Picks for June 18
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Atlanta Hawks
Friday, June 18, 2021 at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) at State Farm Arena in Atlanta
Close Games And Blowouts
One headline in this series has been the big leads that Philadelphia has surrendered.
In Game 5, the 76ers led by as many as 26 at one point. Yet they lost by three.
There are two specific things to discuss in connection with this revealing and, for determined Philadelphia backers, disturbing reality.
One thing is energy, which I will discuss later. The other thing is closing, which I will discuss now.
Philadelphia won two games in this series. Both of those wins came by double digits.
Atlanta won three games in this series. All three of those wins came by four or three points.
It would be mistaken to read this observation and conclude that Philadelphia is the better team because it is blowing teams out whereas Atlanta only wins by "eking" out victories.
Atlanta is going to win this series because the only way that Philadelphia will win is by blowing out the Hawks.
If a game is at all close, the Hawks have something extremely important: a closer.
I used to think that closers were a baseball-specific thing. But it's obvious even in these playoffs alone that basketball teams need a guy to close out games.
For Brooklyn, this closer has been Kevin Durant. Atlanta has Trae Young. These guys are ball-dominant stars who can procure their own basket.
Closers are often guards. Durant is not a guard, but he has uniquely superb footwork, handles, and shot creation.
Put differently, Durant is not Shaq, a guy who needs to be fed under the basket. Likewise, importantly, he is not Joel Embiid.
Embiid is Philadelphia's top scorer. But the 76ers do not have anyone who will close a game out for them.
Seth Curry and Tobias Harris are not star x-factors like Young (or Durant).
Ben Simmons will not assert himself on the offensive end. He didn't even attempt a field goal in the second half of last game.
Philadelphia likes to run through Embiid, but the offense often lags for it because Embiid is slow and has to be fed inside the arc.
The 76ers also lack adequate support for their top sorers. Sure, Tyrese Maxey may show up one game and score double digits. But it's not enough.
Their drop-off in scoring quality is evident in the insertion of Furkan Korkmaz to the starting lineup. He started playing a lot more minutes after mustering all of seven points in Games 1 and 2 combined.
In the team's 44-point second half last game, Embiid and Curry were actually the only two guys to score for Philadelphia.
For tonight's game, the 76ers are three-point favorites. But, because they cannot win close games, taking them as three-point favorites is like bettinig on them to win by double digits.
They need to blow the Hawks out, which is.a tall task anywhere, especially in loud and vibrant Atlanta.
Size
I also mentioned waning energy being a factor in Philadelphia's second-half collapses.
Personnel-wise, the Hawks are able to make Philly work more by injecting more size into their lineup.
Clint Capela, John Collins, and Danilo Gallinari all have size. Specifically the 6-10 Gallinari is seeing more time on the court after playing 18 minutes in Game 1.
With size, the Hawks match a strength of the 76ers, one that helped them breeze past the three-guard Wizard lineup in Round 1.
One guy who is working more is Embiid, who is shooting 3-of-21 in the past two second halves. His ongoing knee problems -- he has a partially torn meniscus -- contribute to his physical and athletic deterioration in games.
Gallinari, especially when he's guarding the passive Simmons, is able to help off his man in order to make use of his length by stopping Embiid from driving and in other instances by stopping Harris from driving, and so forth.
Trae Young
After slowing down earlier in the series, Trae Young has stepped up, producing 25 points and 18 assists in Game 4 and then 39 points and seven assists in Game 5.
He uses his quickness to breeze past on-ball defenders. He punishes defenders for guarding him too closely by locating open players who benefit from the attention that he draws or by tossing lobs at the rim.
Whereas Philadelphia's star scorer struggles at the end of games, Young gets stronger.
Best Bet: Hawks +3.5 at -108 with Heritage
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Atlanta Hawks
Friday, June 18, 2021 at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) at State Farm Arena in Atlanta
Close Games And Blowouts
One headline in this series has been the big leads that Philadelphia has surrendered.
In Game 5, the 76ers led by as many as 26 at one point. Yet they lost by three.
There are two specific things to discuss in connection with this revealing and, for determined Philadelphia backers, disturbing reality.
One thing is energy, which I will discuss later. The other thing is closing, which I will discuss now.
Philadelphia won two games in this series. Both of those wins came by double digits.
Atlanta won three games in this series. All three of those wins came by four or three points.
It would be mistaken to read this observation and conclude that Philadelphia is the better team because it is blowing teams out whereas Atlanta only wins by "eking" out victories.
Atlanta is going to win this series because the only way that Philadelphia will win is by blowing out the Hawks.
If a game is at all close, the Hawks have something extremely important: a closer.
I used to think that closers were a baseball-specific thing. But it's obvious even in these playoffs alone that basketball teams need a guy to close out games.
For Brooklyn, this closer has been Kevin Durant. Atlanta has Trae Young. These guys are ball-dominant stars who can procure their own basket.
Closers are often guards. Durant is not a guard, but he has uniquely superb footwork, handles, and shot creation.
Put differently, Durant is not Shaq, a guy who needs to be fed under the basket. Likewise, importantly, he is not Joel Embiid.
Embiid is Philadelphia's top scorer. But the 76ers do not have anyone who will close a game out for them.
Seth Curry and Tobias Harris are not star x-factors like Young (or Durant).
Ben Simmons will not assert himself on the offensive end. He didn't even attempt a field goal in the second half of last game.
Philadelphia likes to run through Embiid, but the offense often lags for it because Embiid is slow and has to be fed inside the arc.
The 76ers also lack adequate support for their top sorers. Sure, Tyrese Maxey may show up one game and score double digits. But it's not enough.
Their drop-off in scoring quality is evident in the insertion of Furkan Korkmaz to the starting lineup. He started playing a lot more minutes after mustering all of seven points in Games 1 and 2 combined.
In the team's 44-point second half last game, Embiid and Curry were actually the only two guys to score for Philadelphia.
For tonight's game, the 76ers are three-point favorites. But, because they cannot win close games, taking them as three-point favorites is like bettinig on them to win by double digits.
They need to blow the Hawks out, which is.a tall task anywhere, especially in loud and vibrant Atlanta.
Size
I also mentioned waning energy being a factor in Philadelphia's second-half collapses.
Personnel-wise, the Hawks are able to make Philly work more by injecting more size into their lineup.
Clint Capela, John Collins, and Danilo Gallinari all have size. Specifically the 6-10 Gallinari is seeing more time on the court after playing 18 minutes in Game 1.
With size, the Hawks match a strength of the 76ers, one that helped them breeze past the three-guard Wizard lineup in Round 1.
One guy who is working more is Embiid, who is shooting 3-of-21 in the past two second halves. His ongoing knee problems -- he has a partially torn meniscus -- contribute to his physical and athletic deterioration in games.
Gallinari, especially when he's guarding the passive Simmons, is able to help off his man in order to make use of his length by stopping Embiid from driving and in other instances by stopping Harris from driving, and so forth.
Trae Young
After slowing down earlier in the series, Trae Young has stepped up, producing 25 points and 18 assists in Game 4 and then 39 points and seven assists in Game 5.
He uses his quickness to breeze past on-ball defenders. He punishes defenders for guarding him too closely by locating open players who benefit from the attention that he draws or by tossing lobs at the rim.
Whereas Philadelphia's star scorer struggles at the end of games, Young gets stronger.
Best Bet: Hawks +3.5 at -108 with Heritage
