Basketball Betting Analysis: Our Top NBA Picks for May 28
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks
Friday, May 28, 2021 at 9:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) at American Airlines Center in Dallas
219
Looking at the NBA odds right now, I see that the total is listed at 219 for this game.
For Game 1, the final score was 113-103 in favor of Dallas. Dallas won Game 2 with a score of 127-121.
So we need to ask two questions: one, can the Mavericks continue to score as many points as they are scoring?
Two, are the Clippers more likely to score 103 or 121 points in Game 3?
Looking At 103
In asking this second question, we are wondering which scoring total — 103 or 121 — was more unlikely to happen given the way the game played out and given what we know about each team from the large data sample provided by the regular season..
When the Clippers scored 103 points, they converted 11 of 40 three-point attempts. That is a conversion rate of 27.5 percent.
During the regular season, the Clippers actually led the NBA by a clear margin in three-point percentage. They made 41.1 percent of their three-point attempts.
This fact doesn’t necessarily mean that L.A. underperformed against Dallas, that this 27.5-percent three-point conversion rate was an instance of bad luck.
Maybe Dallas played great defense. Maybe the Clipper offense doesn’t match up well with the Maverick defense.
But neither of these two theoretical possibilities hold water. The Mavericks were not playing great defense and the Clippers do match up well with Dallas’ defense.
In Game 1, the Clippers generated 15 open three-point attempts. But they only made 26.7 percent of them.
Out of the eight teams that played on May 22, they also generated the most wide open three-point attempts.
However, their conversion rate by wide open three-point attempts was — like its conversion rate by open three-point attempts — significantly lower in Game 1 than it was during the regular reason.
Simply stated, if the Clippers had shot as well as they normally would have, then they would have easily eclipsed 103 points and so the game total would have exceeded 219 points.
Looking At 121
But was 121 points more than one could have hoped for? Could the Clippers score 121 points again?
In Game 2, when the Clippers scored 121, their three-point percentage was just below their regular season average.
Again, though, they’re generating a lot of wide open attempts.
They should be able to generate great looks from deep against a Maverick perimeter defense that in the regular season ranked in the bottom half in several statistical categories.
Partly because of its loyalty to conservative ball-screen principles, Dallas in the regular season ranked 20th in limiting opposing three-point attempts.
The Mavericks also allowed the second-most open three-point attempts during the regular season.
So teams regularly make a lot of threes against the Mavs.
If Paul George does what he usually does from behind the arc, then the Clippers can add a high-volume, regularly efficient three-point shooter to its arsenal of offensive weapons.
With George hitting just 35.2 percent of his three-point attempts — this is his career postseason three-point percentage, a figure that is deflated by the higher-quality defenses that he’s encountered in the playoffs — the Clippers eclipse 121 points.
Dallas’ Offense Starts With Luka
Broadly speaking, the Clippers have a stronger perimeter defense than Dallas by various statistical measures.
However, they cannot stop superstar Luka Doncic.
Clipper defenders are blitzing him, playing him less aggressively, alternating in order to give him different looks.
It doesn’t matter. Luka averaged 30 points against them during the regular season. In Game 1, he scored 31 points.
In Game 2, he made up for the anomalous one-point fourth quarter in Game 1 to amass 39 points and so help Dallas fly past its 113-point output in Game 1.
If Luka isn’t scoring, he’s finding teammates who are open because the Clippers are employing multiple defenders in order to trap him.
So far in the playoffs, Dallas has the second-most open three-point attempts per game and they will continue to generate great looks from deep because L.A. has to devote extra attention to Luka.
In the regular season, the Mavs made the eighth-most threes per game because they have multiple efficient three-point shooting options like Tim Hardaway Jr, Dorian Finney-Smith, floor-spacer Kristaps Porzingis, Doncic himself, and so forth.
Even if Dallas drops off somewhat in its efficiency, it has multiple guys who have gone off and can go off from beyond the arc especially against this Clipper defense.
With the Mavericks flying past 115 points again — and, unlike in Game 1, they will need to in order to keep up with the Clippers -- and the Clippers approaching 130, 219 points will be no problemo.
Best Bet: Over 219 at -105 with Bovada
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks
Friday, May 28, 2021 at 9:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) at American Airlines Center in Dallas
219
Looking at the NBA odds right now, I see that the total is listed at 219 for this game.
For Game 1, the final score was 113-103 in favor of Dallas. Dallas won Game 2 with a score of 127-121.
So we need to ask two questions: one, can the Mavericks continue to score as many points as they are scoring?
Two, are the Clippers more likely to score 103 or 121 points in Game 3?
Looking At 103
In asking this second question, we are wondering which scoring total — 103 or 121 — was more unlikely to happen given the way the game played out and given what we know about each team from the large data sample provided by the regular season..
When the Clippers scored 103 points, they converted 11 of 40 three-point attempts. That is a conversion rate of 27.5 percent.
During the regular season, the Clippers actually led the NBA by a clear margin in three-point percentage. They made 41.1 percent of their three-point attempts.
This fact doesn’t necessarily mean that L.A. underperformed against Dallas, that this 27.5-percent three-point conversion rate was an instance of bad luck.
Maybe Dallas played great defense. Maybe the Clipper offense doesn’t match up well with the Maverick defense.
But neither of these two theoretical possibilities hold water. The Mavericks were not playing great defense and the Clippers do match up well with Dallas’ defense.
In Game 1, the Clippers generated 15 open three-point attempts. But they only made 26.7 percent of them.
Out of the eight teams that played on May 22, they also generated the most wide open three-point attempts.
However, their conversion rate by wide open three-point attempts was — like its conversion rate by open three-point attempts — significantly lower in Game 1 than it was during the regular reason.
Simply stated, if the Clippers had shot as well as they normally would have, then they would have easily eclipsed 103 points and so the game total would have exceeded 219 points.
Looking At 121
But was 121 points more than one could have hoped for? Could the Clippers score 121 points again?
In Game 2, when the Clippers scored 121, their three-point percentage was just below their regular season average.
Again, though, they’re generating a lot of wide open attempts.
They should be able to generate great looks from deep against a Maverick perimeter defense that in the regular season ranked in the bottom half in several statistical categories.
Partly because of its loyalty to conservative ball-screen principles, Dallas in the regular season ranked 20th in limiting opposing three-point attempts.
The Mavericks also allowed the second-most open three-point attempts during the regular season.
So teams regularly make a lot of threes against the Mavs.
If Paul George does what he usually does from behind the arc, then the Clippers can add a high-volume, regularly efficient three-point shooter to its arsenal of offensive weapons.
With George hitting just 35.2 percent of his three-point attempts — this is his career postseason three-point percentage, a figure that is deflated by the higher-quality defenses that he’s encountered in the playoffs — the Clippers eclipse 121 points.
Dallas’ Offense Starts With Luka
Broadly speaking, the Clippers have a stronger perimeter defense than Dallas by various statistical measures.
However, they cannot stop superstar Luka Doncic.
Clipper defenders are blitzing him, playing him less aggressively, alternating in order to give him different looks.
It doesn’t matter. Luka averaged 30 points against them during the regular season. In Game 1, he scored 31 points.
In Game 2, he made up for the anomalous one-point fourth quarter in Game 1 to amass 39 points and so help Dallas fly past its 113-point output in Game 1.
If Luka isn’t scoring, he’s finding teammates who are open because the Clippers are employing multiple defenders in order to trap him.
So far in the playoffs, Dallas has the second-most open three-point attempts per game and they will continue to generate great looks from deep because L.A. has to devote extra attention to Luka.
In the regular season, the Mavs made the eighth-most threes per game because they have multiple efficient three-point shooting options like Tim Hardaway Jr, Dorian Finney-Smith, floor-spacer Kristaps Porzingis, Doncic himself, and so forth.
Even if Dallas drops off somewhat in its efficiency, it has multiple guys who have gone off and can go off from beyond the arc especially against this Clipper defense.
With the Mavericks flying past 115 points again — and, unlike in Game 1, they will need to in order to keep up with the Clippers -- and the Clippers approaching 130, 219 points will be no problemo.
Best Bet: Over 219 at -105 with Bovada
