Basketball Betting Analysis: Our Top NBA Picks for May 14
Orlando Magic vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Friday, May 14, 2021 at 8 p.m. ET at Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia
One More Win
After losing to both Indiana and Miami, the 76ers find themselves in a good bounce-back spot tonight.
First of all, they have the motivation to bounce back. They need to win one game in order to clinch the 1 seed in the playoffs.
Indiana and Miami were the most difficult opponents left on their schedule. Plus, they had to play both teams on the road.
Now, they only have to focus on Orlando at home. After beating Orlando, they can then relax and rest players for the final game of the regular season.
Get-Right Game
These last two losses to the Pacers and Heat were ugly in several senses, one being in the sense that Philadelphia failed to reach 100 points in either game.
Bottom-feeder Orlando, which ranks 20th in scoring defense and which has lost five straight games by double digits, is the perfect opponent for the 76ers to get things right against.
There is precedent for Philadelphia struggling over the course of a few games and then bouncing back by covering a large spread.
For example, the 76ers last lost multiple games from April 19 to April 24 when they fell to Golden State, Phoenix, and Milwaukee twice.
After that negative stretch of play, they covered the -15.5 against the Thunder, beating them by 31.
Before that series of games, they lost against the Clippers and Nuggets before beating 9.5-point underdog Cleveland by 20.
Joel Embiid
One player who promises to bounce back for the 76ers is star center Joel Embiid.
He had a career-worst effort against Miami’s high-quality interior defense.
But Embiid gets to match up with Magic center Wendell Carter Jr., whom Embiid dominated when Carter Jr. played for the Bulls.
In two games against Carter Jr., Embiid is averaging 40 points and 14.5 rebounds per game.
Overall, the Magic are allowing the fifth-highest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
So in addition to Embiid, watch out for Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris.
Both of these latter players enjoy driving inside. While the rest of his team has floundered, Harris scored 27 against Indiana and 21 against Miami.
Magic Offense vs. Philadelphia Defense
For all of the team’s struggles on offense, Philadelphia’s higher-level scoring defense remains stout.
Orlando, with its mixture of young and lower-profile scorers, has scored 96 points or fewer in three of its last five games.
As measured by field goal attempts per game, the Magic love to score in the mid-range more than almost any other team.
Philadelphia, though, is the best team at limiting opposing field goal efficiency in this area.
Best Bet: 76ers ATS
Toronto Raptors vs. Dallas Mavericks
Friday, May 14, 2021 at 9 p.m. ET at American Airlines Center in Dallas
One More Win
After rediscovering a strong version of itself in a 125-107 win over New Orleans, Dallas needs one more win in order to avoid the play-in tournament.
Given its situation, I expect the same level of concentration, motivation, and quality from Dallas tonight.
Toronto’s Situation
Admittedly, it’s often too easy to discount a team because “it has nothing to play for.”
Some teams thrive when they have “nothing to play for” because they play more loosely or enjoy a kind of spoiler role.
But Toronto, which is enduring an 0-3 ATS streak right now, is playing like it has nothing to play for.
The Raptors have lost three straight games and all by double digits.
There is a legitimate reason for the Raptors to hold themselves back. Several players are dinged up and requiring rest.
Among these players are key names like leading scorer and rebounder Pascal Siakam plus the second-, third-, and fourth-leading scorers.
Without these scorers, Toronto’s offensive ceiling is low. The Raptors have failed to exceed 102 points in any of their past three games.
Dallas Offense vs. Toronto Defense
The biggest area where Dallas can exploit the Raptor defense is behind the arc.
Toronto allows the ninth-highest rate of open three-point attempts and the fifth-highest rate of wide open ones.
Offensively, Dallas loves to shoot the three, the more so with center Kristaps Porzingis back in the lineup.
Porzingis is a characteristically strong floor-spacer in Dallas’ five-out offense. In his first game back, Porzingis drained two of five three-point attempts.
Overall, the Mavericks attempt the sixth-most threes per game and are converting even more attempts than usual lately.
Best Bet: Mavericks ATS
Orlando Magic vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Friday, May 14, 2021 at 8 p.m. ET at Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia
One More Win
After losing to both Indiana and Miami, the 76ers find themselves in a good bounce-back spot tonight.
First of all, they have the motivation to bounce back. They need to win one game in order to clinch the 1 seed in the playoffs.
Indiana and Miami were the most difficult opponents left on their schedule. Plus, they had to play both teams on the road.
Now, they only have to focus on Orlando at home. After beating Orlando, they can then relax and rest players for the final game of the regular season.
Get-Right Game
These last two losses to the Pacers and Heat were ugly in several senses, one being in the sense that Philadelphia failed to reach 100 points in either game.
Bottom-feeder Orlando, which ranks 20th in scoring defense and which has lost five straight games by double digits, is the perfect opponent for the 76ers to get things right against.
There is precedent for Philadelphia struggling over the course of a few games and then bouncing back by covering a large spread.
For example, the 76ers last lost multiple games from April 19 to April 24 when they fell to Golden State, Phoenix, and Milwaukee twice.
After that negative stretch of play, they covered the -15.5 against the Thunder, beating them by 31.
Before that series of games, they lost against the Clippers and Nuggets before beating 9.5-point underdog Cleveland by 20.
Joel Embiid
One player who promises to bounce back for the 76ers is star center Joel Embiid.
He had a career-worst effort against Miami’s high-quality interior defense.
But Embiid gets to match up with Magic center Wendell Carter Jr., whom Embiid dominated when Carter Jr. played for the Bulls.
In two games against Carter Jr., Embiid is averaging 40 points and 14.5 rebounds per game.
Overall, the Magic are allowing the fifth-highest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
So in addition to Embiid, watch out for Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris.
Both of these latter players enjoy driving inside. While the rest of his team has floundered, Harris scored 27 against Indiana and 21 against Miami.
Magic Offense vs. Philadelphia Defense
For all of the team’s struggles on offense, Philadelphia’s higher-level scoring defense remains stout.
Orlando, with its mixture of young and lower-profile scorers, has scored 96 points or fewer in three of its last five games.
As measured by field goal attempts per game, the Magic love to score in the mid-range more than almost any other team.
Philadelphia, though, is the best team at limiting opposing field goal efficiency in this area.
Best Bet: 76ers ATS
Toronto Raptors vs. Dallas Mavericks
Friday, May 14, 2021 at 9 p.m. ET at American Airlines Center in Dallas
One More Win
After rediscovering a strong version of itself in a 125-107 win over New Orleans, Dallas needs one more win in order to avoid the play-in tournament.
Given its situation, I expect the same level of concentration, motivation, and quality from Dallas tonight.
Toronto’s Situation
Admittedly, it’s often too easy to discount a team because “it has nothing to play for.”
Some teams thrive when they have “nothing to play for” because they play more loosely or enjoy a kind of spoiler role.
But Toronto, which is enduring an 0-3 ATS streak right now, is playing like it has nothing to play for.
The Raptors have lost three straight games and all by double digits.
There is a legitimate reason for the Raptors to hold themselves back. Several players are dinged up and requiring rest.
Among these players are key names like leading scorer and rebounder Pascal Siakam plus the second-, third-, and fourth-leading scorers.
Without these scorers, Toronto’s offensive ceiling is low. The Raptors have failed to exceed 102 points in any of their past three games.
Dallas Offense vs. Toronto Defense
The biggest area where Dallas can exploit the Raptor defense is behind the arc.
Toronto allows the ninth-highest rate of open three-point attempts and the fifth-highest rate of wide open ones.
Offensively, Dallas loves to shoot the three, the more so with center Kristaps Porzingis back in the lineup.
Porzingis is a characteristically strong floor-spacer in Dallas’ five-out offense. In his first game back, Porzingis drained two of five three-point attempts.
Overall, the Mavericks attempt the sixth-most threes per game and are converting even more attempts than usual lately.
Best Bet: Mavericks ATS
