Best MLB Parlay Picks Today
Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Friday, September 17, 2021 at 7:07 p.m. ET at Sahlen Field in Buffalo
A Tougher Test For Michael Pineda
A Twin backer may point to Minnesota starter Michael Pineda's last two starts as a source of optimism.
However, the teams that Pineda succeeded against -- Kansas City and Cleveland -- are not in the same stratosphere as Toronto in terms of scoring power.
Whereas both the Royals and Indians rank in the bottom half in runs per game, the Blue Jays rank third in the category with 5.28 runs per game.
Plus, the Blue Jays are at home today where they average 5.49 runs per game.
Blue Jay Batters vs. Pineda
Toronto's hitters are in a great spot because, except for rare hiccups, they have enjoyed superb form for an extended period of time as they make a push for a Wild Card spot.
Since September 11, they have produced an absurd 58 runs in six games.
They are primed to perpetuate this positive play against Pineda because they have cultivated a strong history against him.
In a combined total of 72 career at-bats facing Pineda, they hit .417 and slug .833.
Randal Grichuk, Jake Lamb, George Springer, and Corey Dickerson all slug well above .900 in at least five career at-bats with Pineda on the mound.
Matching Up Against Hyun-Jin Ryu
After allowing seven earned runs in 2.1 innings against Baltimore, it's hard to make the case that Toronto starter Hyun-Jin Ryu is enjoying positive form.
In any case, Ryu is in a tough spot tonight because he matches up poorly against Twin batters.
Ryu throws, primarily, a fastball, cutter, and change-up. Those are the three pitches that he throws with 25 percent frequency or higher.
Against these three pitches from lefties, Minnesota ranks sixth in slugging .459.
Look out for Josh Donaldson, for example. He is 3-for-7 (.429) with two doubles and a homer in his career against the Toronto southpaw.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
Friday, September 17, 2021 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Citi Field in Queens, New York
Zack Wheeler's Great Spot
Philly starter Zack Wheeler enjoys strong form, having allowed one earned run in his last two starts, totaling 12.2 innings.
He is in a great spot today against a Met team that he has consistently owned this year.
Perhaps Wheeler is extra motivated when he pitches against the Mets because he was a Met for five years.
In any case, Wheeler has yielded a sub-two FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) in two starts against the Mets this year and a sub-2.50 FIP in his other two starts against them.
The Mets have produced zero runs in Wheeler's last two starts against them.
Collectively, Met batters have produced one home run in 156 career at-bats with Wheeler on the mound.
Their BA is .250 and slugging rate .321 against him. They have struck out one less time than they have hits against Wheeler.
Jeff McNeil, for example, is 3-for-17 (.176) facing Wheeler.
Fade Taijuan Walker
Met starter Taijuan Walker is a must-fade today as he's allowed a combined 11 earned runs and five home runs in his last two starts.
Walker hasn't won a game since July 3 and his Mets have lost three in a row.
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Friday, September 17, 2021 at 8:15 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium in St. Louis
Strong Batter Histories Against Rusty Pitchers
The Cardinals have accumulated 69 career at-bats against Padre starter Vince Velasquez.
Their slugging rate in these at-bats against him is .522. What impresses me is the sheer variety of Cardinal batters who find success against him.
Seven different St. Louis hitters slug at least .500 in their career against him.
While a couple of those hitters own very small data samples, Velasquez seems to be in a bad position to prevent Cardinal hitters from improving upon their numbers against him.
He makes his debut with the Padres tonight. Even if he isn't nervous, he hasn't thrown a pitch in over a month and a half.
Conversely, it's likely no longer accurate to say that Cardinal starter Miles Mikolas is rusty.
But he still has yet to find his footing during his brief foray into this season. He has yielded an ERA over seven in each of his last three starts.
Eric Hosmer, Adam Frazier, and Victor Caratini all slug over .580 against Mikolas in at least nine at-bats.
They will help the Padres stay hot. San Diego's 16 combined runs in its past two games almost trumps the 18 that the Cards have generated in their past two games.
The Verdict
Expect a lot of runs in Buffalo and St. Louis while the Mets fail to keep up with the Phillies.
For the above reasons, parlay the Twins/Jays first-half over with the Phillies first-half run-line and the Padres/Cards first-half over.
Best Bet: Parlay Twins/Blue Jays First-Half Over 5 at -110, Phillies First-Half RL at -125, Padres/Cardinals First-Half Over 5 at -105 at +571 odds with Bovada
Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Friday, September 17, 2021 at 7:07 p.m. ET at Sahlen Field in Buffalo
A Tougher Test For Michael Pineda
A Twin backer may point to Minnesota starter Michael Pineda's last two starts as a source of optimism.
However, the teams that Pineda succeeded against -- Kansas City and Cleveland -- are not in the same stratosphere as Toronto in terms of scoring power.
Whereas both the Royals and Indians rank in the bottom half in runs per game, the Blue Jays rank third in the category with 5.28 runs per game.
Plus, the Blue Jays are at home today where they average 5.49 runs per game.
Blue Jay Batters vs. Pineda
Toronto's hitters are in a great spot because, except for rare hiccups, they have enjoyed superb form for an extended period of time as they make a push for a Wild Card spot.
Since September 11, they have produced an absurd 58 runs in six games.
They are primed to perpetuate this positive play against Pineda because they have cultivated a strong history against him.
In a combined total of 72 career at-bats facing Pineda, they hit .417 and slug .833.
Randal Grichuk, Jake Lamb, George Springer, and Corey Dickerson all slug well above .900 in at least five career at-bats with Pineda on the mound.
Matching Up Against Hyun-Jin Ryu
After allowing seven earned runs in 2.1 innings against Baltimore, it's hard to make the case that Toronto starter Hyun-Jin Ryu is enjoying positive form.
In any case, Ryu is in a tough spot tonight because he matches up poorly against Twin batters.
Ryu throws, primarily, a fastball, cutter, and change-up. Those are the three pitches that he throws with 25 percent frequency or higher.
Against these three pitches from lefties, Minnesota ranks sixth in slugging .459.
Look out for Josh Donaldson, for example. He is 3-for-7 (.429) with two doubles and a homer in his career against the Toronto southpaw.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
Friday, September 17, 2021 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Citi Field in Queens, New York
Zack Wheeler's Great Spot
Philly starter Zack Wheeler enjoys strong form, having allowed one earned run in his last two starts, totaling 12.2 innings.
He is in a great spot today against a Met team that he has consistently owned this year.
Perhaps Wheeler is extra motivated when he pitches against the Mets because he was a Met for five years.
In any case, Wheeler has yielded a sub-two FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) in two starts against the Mets this year and a sub-2.50 FIP in his other two starts against them.
The Mets have produced zero runs in Wheeler's last two starts against them.
Collectively, Met batters have produced one home run in 156 career at-bats with Wheeler on the mound.
Their BA is .250 and slugging rate .321 against him. They have struck out one less time than they have hits against Wheeler.
Jeff McNeil, for example, is 3-for-17 (.176) facing Wheeler.
Fade Taijuan Walker
Met starter Taijuan Walker is a must-fade today as he's allowed a combined 11 earned runs and five home runs in his last two starts.
Walker hasn't won a game since July 3 and his Mets have lost three in a row.
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Friday, September 17, 2021 at 8:15 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium in St. Louis
Strong Batter Histories Against Rusty Pitchers
The Cardinals have accumulated 69 career at-bats against Padre starter Vince Velasquez.
Their slugging rate in these at-bats against him is .522. What impresses me is the sheer variety of Cardinal batters who find success against him.
Seven different St. Louis hitters slug at least .500 in their career against him.
While a couple of those hitters own very small data samples, Velasquez seems to be in a bad position to prevent Cardinal hitters from improving upon their numbers against him.
He makes his debut with the Padres tonight. Even if he isn't nervous, he hasn't thrown a pitch in over a month and a half.
Conversely, it's likely no longer accurate to say that Cardinal starter Miles Mikolas is rusty.
But he still has yet to find his footing during his brief foray into this season. He has yielded an ERA over seven in each of his last three starts.
Eric Hosmer, Adam Frazier, and Victor Caratini all slug over .580 against Mikolas in at least nine at-bats.
They will help the Padres stay hot. San Diego's 16 combined runs in its past two games almost trumps the 18 that the Cards have generated in their past two games.
The Verdict
Expect a lot of runs in Buffalo and St. Louis while the Mets fail to keep up with the Phillies.
For the above reasons, parlay the Twins/Jays first-half over with the Phillies first-half run-line and the Padres/Cards first-half over.
Best Bet: Parlay Twins/Blue Jays First-Half Over 5 at -110, Phillies First-Half RL at -125, Padres/Cardinals First-Half Over 5 at -105 at +571 odds with Bovada
