Best MLB Parlay Picks Today
Oakland Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Friday, September 3, 2021 at 7:07 p.m. ET at Sahlen Field in Buffalo
Sean Manaea's Poor Form
Recency bias -- the phenomenon whereby one attaches exaggerated significance to the most recent event -- is dangerous for bettors.
In the case of Oakland starter Sean Manaea, disliking him today is not simply a product of recognizing what he did in his last start because he has shown poor form for an extended period of time.
Manaea, in each of his last four starts, has yielded an FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) over 6.00.
Moreover, he's allowed five earned runs or more in three of his last five starts. During this span, he is 0-3 as a starter. The A's have lost four out of the last five games in which he started.
Manaea vs. Jay Batters
Primarily, Manaea likes to throw his sinker. He is a lefty who throws this one pitch over half the time.
Toronto matches up well with Manaea because it thrives against this pitch, slugging .521 against the sinker from lefties at home.
Few Blue Jay batters have faced Manaea. But George Springer, Corey Dickerson, and Randal Grichuk are each batting over .320 with Manaea on the mound.
Alek Manoah
Unlike Manaea, Toronto starter Alek Manoah continues to show strong form.
Manoah has allowed two earned runs or fewer in eight of his last nine starts.
During this span and in his season as a whole, he repeatedly earns a low FIP.
Oakland batters have accumulated two at-bats in their career against Manoah. In Manoah, they will face an upgrade in quality relative to the Tiger pitching that they most recently had the benefit of facing.
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
Friday, September 3, 2021 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri
Faith in Dallas
Bettors will tend to lack faith in White Sox starter Dallas Keuchel when they see his recent starts.
However, success from Keuchel today wouldn't create the first example of Keuchel wrecking the Royals amidst a slew of sluggish starts.
For example, July and the end of June witnessed many awful starts from Keuchel in which he either surrendered a lot of earned runs or, at the very least, yielded a high FIP.
But amidst those starts, he allowed two earned runs in six innings against the Royals, yielding a solid 2.99 FIP.
Keuchel vs. Royal Batters
History shows that Keuchel is a reliable option today.
Royal batters have had almost countless chances to cultivate success against Keuchel, but to no avail.
In 141 career at-bats against him, they hit .206 and slug .284.
Carlos Santana and Salvador Perez are two KC hitters whose career BA against Keuchel is lower than .210.
Upward-Trending White Sox
Royal starter Kris Bubic primarily throws a fastball and a change-up. Both pitches combine to make up just over 80 percent of his arsenal.
During their current 6-2 stretch, the White Sox are slugging .598 against these two pitches from righties combined.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Friday, September 3, 2021 at 8:10 p.m. ET at American Family Field in Milwaukee
Adam Wainright In Milwaukee
Cardinal starter Adam Wainwright has a strong bounce-back opportunity in Milwaukee tonight.
Over his career, he has built up a unique level of success in the Brewer ballpark (formerly named Miller Park). In 17 career starts here, his ERA is 2.68.
Based on Brewer batter history against Wainright, we should expect some singles from Milwaukee hitters, but very little of anything else.
In 106 career at-bats against Waino, Milwaukee is slugging .368.
Moreover, unless they're facing lowly Pittsburgh, the Brewers tend to follow one poor hitting performance with another. So don't expect Milwaukee to bounce back after losing 5-1 to the Giants yesterday.
Freddy Peralta Is Back
After a brief injury stint, Brewer starter Freddy Peralta reportedly feels great and is ready to rejoin Milwaukee's rotation.
Peralta has been pitching well for a while, yielding a sub-three FIP in each of his last five starts.
Only in his most recent start where he suffered injury did he allow more than two earned runs.
Today provides a great bounce-back spot for him because the Cardinals rank 27th in slugging against his favorite pitches, the fastball and slider, from righties.
Among Cardinal hitters, expect nothing from Nolan Arenado, for example. He is 2-for-12 (.167) with five strikeouts in his career against Peralta.
The Verdict
Expect Toronto to ride past Oakland and the struggling Manaea. The White Sox will stay hot in Kansas City. Finally, Cardinal and Brewer starting pitches will flex their advantages against the opposing lineup.
For the above reasons, parlay the Blue Jays first-half money-line, the White Sox first-half money-line, and the Cardinals/Brewers first-half under.
Best Bet: Parlay Blue Jays First-Half ML, White Sox First-Half, ML, Cardinals/Brewers First-Half Under (Odds TBA)
Oakland Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Friday, September 3, 2021 at 7:07 p.m. ET at Sahlen Field in Buffalo
Sean Manaea's Poor Form
Recency bias -- the phenomenon whereby one attaches exaggerated significance to the most recent event -- is dangerous for bettors.
In the case of Oakland starter Sean Manaea, disliking him today is not simply a product of recognizing what he did in his last start because he has shown poor form for an extended period of time.
Manaea, in each of his last four starts, has yielded an FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) over 6.00.
Moreover, he's allowed five earned runs or more in three of his last five starts. During this span, he is 0-3 as a starter. The A's have lost four out of the last five games in which he started.
Manaea vs. Jay Batters
Primarily, Manaea likes to throw his sinker. He is a lefty who throws this one pitch over half the time.
Toronto matches up well with Manaea because it thrives against this pitch, slugging .521 against the sinker from lefties at home.
Few Blue Jay batters have faced Manaea. But George Springer, Corey Dickerson, and Randal Grichuk are each batting over .320 with Manaea on the mound.
Alek Manoah
Unlike Manaea, Toronto starter Alek Manoah continues to show strong form.
Manoah has allowed two earned runs or fewer in eight of his last nine starts.
During this span and in his season as a whole, he repeatedly earns a low FIP.
Oakland batters have accumulated two at-bats in their career against Manoah. In Manoah, they will face an upgrade in quality relative to the Tiger pitching that they most recently had the benefit of facing.
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
Friday, September 3, 2021 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri
Faith in Dallas
Bettors will tend to lack faith in White Sox starter Dallas Keuchel when they see his recent starts.
However, success from Keuchel today wouldn't create the first example of Keuchel wrecking the Royals amidst a slew of sluggish starts.
For example, July and the end of June witnessed many awful starts from Keuchel in which he either surrendered a lot of earned runs or, at the very least, yielded a high FIP.
But amidst those starts, he allowed two earned runs in six innings against the Royals, yielding a solid 2.99 FIP.
Keuchel vs. Royal Batters
History shows that Keuchel is a reliable option today.
Royal batters have had almost countless chances to cultivate success against Keuchel, but to no avail.
In 141 career at-bats against him, they hit .206 and slug .284.
Carlos Santana and Salvador Perez are two KC hitters whose career BA against Keuchel is lower than .210.
Upward-Trending White Sox
Royal starter Kris Bubic primarily throws a fastball and a change-up. Both pitches combine to make up just over 80 percent of his arsenal.
During their current 6-2 stretch, the White Sox are slugging .598 against these two pitches from righties combined.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Friday, September 3, 2021 at 8:10 p.m. ET at American Family Field in Milwaukee
Adam Wainright In Milwaukee
Cardinal starter Adam Wainwright has a strong bounce-back opportunity in Milwaukee tonight.
Over his career, he has built up a unique level of success in the Brewer ballpark (formerly named Miller Park). In 17 career starts here, his ERA is 2.68.
Based on Brewer batter history against Wainright, we should expect some singles from Milwaukee hitters, but very little of anything else.
In 106 career at-bats against Waino, Milwaukee is slugging .368.
Moreover, unless they're facing lowly Pittsburgh, the Brewers tend to follow one poor hitting performance with another. So don't expect Milwaukee to bounce back after losing 5-1 to the Giants yesterday.
Freddy Peralta Is Back
After a brief injury stint, Brewer starter Freddy Peralta reportedly feels great and is ready to rejoin Milwaukee's rotation.
Peralta has been pitching well for a while, yielding a sub-three FIP in each of his last five starts.
Only in his most recent start where he suffered injury did he allow more than two earned runs.
Today provides a great bounce-back spot for him because the Cardinals rank 27th in slugging against his favorite pitches, the fastball and slider, from righties.
Among Cardinal hitters, expect nothing from Nolan Arenado, for example. He is 2-for-12 (.167) with five strikeouts in his career against Peralta.
The Verdict
Expect Toronto to ride past Oakland and the struggling Manaea. The White Sox will stay hot in Kansas City. Finally, Cardinal and Brewer starting pitches will flex their advantages against the opposing lineup.
For the above reasons, parlay the Blue Jays first-half money-line, the White Sox first-half money-line, and the Cardinals/Brewers first-half under.
Best Bet: Parlay Blue Jays First-Half ML, White Sox First-Half, ML, Cardinals/Brewers First-Half Under (Odds TBA)
