Best MLB Parlay Picks Today
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Friday, August 27, 2021 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia
Aaron Who?
Philadelphia starter Aaron Nola continues to enjoy a strong reputation among bettors.
Undoubtedly, Nola has done a lot in his career to deserve this reputation.
But with the bad season that Nola continues to have -- his current ERA is 4.33 -- he places himself in a very long list of stars (Bryce Harper is an obvious example) who sometimes have bad seasons.
Right now, Nola is not what he has been in the past. By articulating this fact, I hope to make the reasoning for my play on this game as clear as possible.
Nola's Bad Spot
One consistent aspect of Nola's 2021 season is his inconsistency.
Occasionally, he will enjoy a brilliant outing, only to follow it up with a disappointing dud.
He has achieved double-digit strikeouts in five games this season.
In the start following four of them, he allowed at last four earned runs.
His fifth start with double-digit strikeouts was his most recent start. So I dislike Nola tonight because this trend suggests that he will surrender at least four earned runs.
Taylor Widener's Bad Spot
If I didn't dislike Diamondback starter Taylor Widener so strongly tonight, then the Diamondbacks would make a great value play because of how heavily Nola is favored despite his bad spot today and despite the fact that Philadelphia is really struggling to win a game.
But I don't like Widener tonight because of the situation he finds himself in after facing this Philadelphia team only 10 days ago.
As evident in all of his starts against teams that he's faced once before earlier in the season -- with the exception of a Rockie team that he had only pitched 1.2 innings against -- Widener's ERA tends to skyrocket in the rematch relative to his ERA in the first meeting.
Speaking of Bryce Harper, he has a homer in his only career at-bat against Widener.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Friday, August 27, 2021 at 7:05 p.m. ET at PNC Park in Pittsburgh
J.A. Happ's Awful Spot
Recency bias is a tragic phenomenon in situations where a pitcher faces the same team twice in a row.
In this case, it may seem like Cardinal starter J.A. Happ is an obvious candidate to trust because he just performed well against this Pittsburgh squad.
However, history says otherwise. On July 8, Happ allowed three runs to Detroit in seven innings. In his next start, which came against these same Tigers, he allowed seven runs.
The same story repeats itself in his back-to-back encounters with the Royals.
His back-to-back starts with the White Sox technically provides an exception, but it really isn't an exception. Happ allowed nine runs to them on May 12 and "only" gave up six to them in the following start.
Cardinal Bats Can Keep Up
Cardinal hitters get to see Pirate starter Dillon Peters a second time in a row.
It may seem counterintuitive to expect Cardinal batters to perform better against Peters in Pittsburgh than in St. Louis.
But, as odd as it may sound, St. Louis is accruing way more runs away from home -- and Pittsburgh is no exception -- than at home.
Against Peters' two favorite pitches -- the fastball and change-up -- from lefties, the Cards are slugging .778 in PNC Park.
New York Yankees vs. Oakland Athletics
Friday, August 27, 2021 at 9:40 p.m. ET at Oakland Coliseum in Oakland
Gerrit Cole
Yankee starter Gerrit Cole continues to flash superb form.
Cole has yielded a sub-three FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) in each of his last three starts.
He's allowed one earned run or fewer in four of his last six starts. Both exceptions came against divisional rivals whose lineups have seen him very many times this year.
Cole vs. Athletic Batters
Oakland batters have yet to see Cole this year.
They do have a lot of history against Cole, though, that speaks against them.
In 109 at-bats against Cole, they are hitting .156 and slugging .284.
Matt Olson, for example, is 0-for-19 in his career against Cole.
Sean Manaea
Unlike Cole, Oakland starter Sean Manaea suffers poor form.
Manaea has yielded an FIP over 6.00 in each of his past three starts.
Expect Aaron Judge, for example, to hit him well. Judge is 3-for-9 (.333) with a homer when Manaea is on the mound.
The Verdict
Expect high-scoring games in Pennsylvania tonight. In the later game, the Yanks will continue to flex their winning ways as Cole enjoys a major pitching advantage.
Best Bet: Parlay Diamondbacks/Phillies First-Half Over 4.5 at -120, Cardinals/Pirates First-Half Over 4.5 at -125, Yankees First-Half RL at -110 at +530 odds with Bovada
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Friday, August 27, 2021 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia
Aaron Who?
Philadelphia starter Aaron Nola continues to enjoy a strong reputation among bettors.
Undoubtedly, Nola has done a lot in his career to deserve this reputation.
But with the bad season that Nola continues to have -- his current ERA is 4.33 -- he places himself in a very long list of stars (Bryce Harper is an obvious example) who sometimes have bad seasons.
Right now, Nola is not what he has been in the past. By articulating this fact, I hope to make the reasoning for my play on this game as clear as possible.
Nola's Bad Spot
One consistent aspect of Nola's 2021 season is his inconsistency.
Occasionally, he will enjoy a brilliant outing, only to follow it up with a disappointing dud.
He has achieved double-digit strikeouts in five games this season.
In the start following four of them, he allowed at last four earned runs.
His fifth start with double-digit strikeouts was his most recent start. So I dislike Nola tonight because this trend suggests that he will surrender at least four earned runs.
Taylor Widener's Bad Spot
If I didn't dislike Diamondback starter Taylor Widener so strongly tonight, then the Diamondbacks would make a great value play because of how heavily Nola is favored despite his bad spot today and despite the fact that Philadelphia is really struggling to win a game.
But I don't like Widener tonight because of the situation he finds himself in after facing this Philadelphia team only 10 days ago.
As evident in all of his starts against teams that he's faced once before earlier in the season -- with the exception of a Rockie team that he had only pitched 1.2 innings against -- Widener's ERA tends to skyrocket in the rematch relative to his ERA in the first meeting.
Speaking of Bryce Harper, he has a homer in his only career at-bat against Widener.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Friday, August 27, 2021 at 7:05 p.m. ET at PNC Park in Pittsburgh
J.A. Happ's Awful Spot
Recency bias is a tragic phenomenon in situations where a pitcher faces the same team twice in a row.
In this case, it may seem like Cardinal starter J.A. Happ is an obvious candidate to trust because he just performed well against this Pittsburgh squad.
However, history says otherwise. On July 8, Happ allowed three runs to Detroit in seven innings. In his next start, which came against these same Tigers, he allowed seven runs.
The same story repeats itself in his back-to-back encounters with the Royals.
His back-to-back starts with the White Sox technically provides an exception, but it really isn't an exception. Happ allowed nine runs to them on May 12 and "only" gave up six to them in the following start.
Cardinal Bats Can Keep Up
Cardinal hitters get to see Pirate starter Dillon Peters a second time in a row.
It may seem counterintuitive to expect Cardinal batters to perform better against Peters in Pittsburgh than in St. Louis.
But, as odd as it may sound, St. Louis is accruing way more runs away from home -- and Pittsburgh is no exception -- than at home.
Against Peters' two favorite pitches -- the fastball and change-up -- from lefties, the Cards are slugging .778 in PNC Park.
New York Yankees vs. Oakland Athletics
Friday, August 27, 2021 at 9:40 p.m. ET at Oakland Coliseum in Oakland
Gerrit Cole
Yankee starter Gerrit Cole continues to flash superb form.
Cole has yielded a sub-three FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) in each of his last three starts.
He's allowed one earned run or fewer in four of his last six starts. Both exceptions came against divisional rivals whose lineups have seen him very many times this year.
Cole vs. Athletic Batters
Oakland batters have yet to see Cole this year.
They do have a lot of history against Cole, though, that speaks against them.
In 109 at-bats against Cole, they are hitting .156 and slugging .284.
Matt Olson, for example, is 0-for-19 in his career against Cole.
Sean Manaea
Unlike Cole, Oakland starter Sean Manaea suffers poor form.
Manaea has yielded an FIP over 6.00 in each of his past three starts.
Expect Aaron Judge, for example, to hit him well. Judge is 3-for-9 (.333) with a homer when Manaea is on the mound.
The Verdict
Expect high-scoring games in Pennsylvania tonight. In the later game, the Yanks will continue to flex their winning ways as Cole enjoys a major pitching advantage.
Best Bet: Parlay Diamondbacks/Phillies First-Half Over 4.5 at -120, Cardinals/Pirates First-Half Over 4.5 at -125, Yankees First-Half RL at -110 at +530 odds with Bovada
