Best MLB Parlay Picks Today
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros
Friday, August 20, 2021 at 8:10 p.m. ET in Minute Maid Park in Houston
Yusei Kikuchi in Minute Maid Park
Minute Maid Park has been known as a haven for home-run hitters.
This reputation partly derives from the relatively short distance (315 feet) to left field.
A short distance to left field will benefit right-handed batters, who only have to pull a pitch so far in order to send the ball out of the ballpark.
Kikuchi would never be an Astro because he would hate to pitch in this ballpark anymore than he has to.
He is a lefty who, by far, most often tends to allow opposing batters to pull his pitches.
For other reasons as well, Kikuchi is already someone who is vulnerable to allowing home runs. He regularly allows one or two home runs per game.
Kikuchi stands to suffer against a righty-heavy Astro lineup that ranks eighth in home runs per game while often facing much tougher tests than Kikuchi.
This Astro lineup, being righty-heavy, is built to prolong Kikuchi's awful career history in Minute Maid Park.
The Mariner southpaw yields a 5.47 career ERA in Houston.
Kikuchi vs. Astro Batters
Righties are slugging .461 against Kikuchi so far this season.
Unsurprisingly, plenty of Houston's high-quality right-handed hitters have strong numbers in their career facing Kikuchi.
Yordan Alvarez, Martin Maldonado, and Jose Altuve slug well over .500 in at least seven career at-bats against Kikuchi.
Lance McCullers Jr.
Astro starter Lance McCullers Jr.'s home ERA this season is bloated by a single catastrophe that he suffered back in April.
He is still a regular element of quality at home where he has yielded a sub-two FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) in two of his last three home starts in addition to doing so in two of his last three overall starts.
One may counter that his betting numbers against division rivals are not good. But in Houston's losses in his starts against other AL West teams, it's almost always been the lineup that has let him down. But the Astro lineup seems likely to flourish today.
McCullers Jr. vs. Mariner Batters
McCullers Jr. primarily relies on a sinker-slider combo.
His slider is a new feature this year, and a unique one that challenges batters with a rare amount of horizontal movement.
His hard work with this pitch is paying off as it's yielding a .128 BA and .203 slugging rate.
Of course, he's still famous for his curveball.
Against the sinker and slider from righties combined, the Mariners rank 27th in slugging .358. So they match up awfully against the Astro righty.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies
Friday, August 20, 2021 at 8:40 p.m. ET in Coors Field in Denver
Home/Away
One way of looking at this game involves basic but useful consideration of venue.
Whereas Arizona has lost four straight road games, Colorado has won seven in a row at home, including a most recent sweep of San Diego, a team that is still 11 games above .500.
The betting numbers also reflect this disparity between ability at home and ability on the road, a disparity that is really rare to see.
Whereas the Rockies yield -24.1 units on the road, they generate +24.9 units at home.
Similarly, Arizona costs its backers 5.8 units at home, but 23 units outside of Arizona.
Austin Gomber
One Rockie player who thrives in Denver is today's starter, Austin Gomber.
Gomber yields a 1.70 ERA at home this year.
In his one start against Arizona this year, he allowed two earned runs in six innings on the road. He stands to improve upon this effort today at home, especially since Arizona also falls below league average against southpaws.
Tyler Gilbert
Diamondback starter Tyler Gilbert will fall back to earth tonight after his most recent no-hitter.
He matches up poorly against a Rockie lineup that ranks fifth in slugging against his three favorite pitches -- the ones that he throws over 20 percent of the time -- from righties combined.
The Verdict
Expect Houston and Colorado to run away at home today against Seattle and Arizona, respectively. Location and match-up are both going to be two crucial reasons for their success.
For the above reasons, invest in the Astros first-half run-line and the Rockies first-half run-line.
Best Bet: Astros First-Half RL at -130 & Rockies First-Half RL at -135 at +208 odds with Bovada
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros
Friday, August 20, 2021 at 8:10 p.m. ET in Minute Maid Park in Houston
Yusei Kikuchi in Minute Maid Park
Minute Maid Park has been known as a haven for home-run hitters.
This reputation partly derives from the relatively short distance (315 feet) to left field.
A short distance to left field will benefit right-handed batters, who only have to pull a pitch so far in order to send the ball out of the ballpark.
Kikuchi would never be an Astro because he would hate to pitch in this ballpark anymore than he has to.
He is a lefty who, by far, most often tends to allow opposing batters to pull his pitches.
For other reasons as well, Kikuchi is already someone who is vulnerable to allowing home runs. He regularly allows one or two home runs per game.
Kikuchi stands to suffer against a righty-heavy Astro lineup that ranks eighth in home runs per game while often facing much tougher tests than Kikuchi.
This Astro lineup, being righty-heavy, is built to prolong Kikuchi's awful career history in Minute Maid Park.
The Mariner southpaw yields a 5.47 career ERA in Houston.
Kikuchi vs. Astro Batters
Righties are slugging .461 against Kikuchi so far this season.
Unsurprisingly, plenty of Houston's high-quality right-handed hitters have strong numbers in their career facing Kikuchi.
Yordan Alvarez, Martin Maldonado, and Jose Altuve slug well over .500 in at least seven career at-bats against Kikuchi.
Lance McCullers Jr.
Astro starter Lance McCullers Jr.'s home ERA this season is bloated by a single catastrophe that he suffered back in April.
He is still a regular element of quality at home where he has yielded a sub-two FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) in two of his last three home starts in addition to doing so in two of his last three overall starts.
One may counter that his betting numbers against division rivals are not good. But in Houston's losses in his starts against other AL West teams, it's almost always been the lineup that has let him down. But the Astro lineup seems likely to flourish today.
McCullers Jr. vs. Mariner Batters
McCullers Jr. primarily relies on a sinker-slider combo.
His slider is a new feature this year, and a unique one that challenges batters with a rare amount of horizontal movement.
His hard work with this pitch is paying off as it's yielding a .128 BA and .203 slugging rate.
Of course, he's still famous for his curveball.
Against the sinker and slider from righties combined, the Mariners rank 27th in slugging .358. So they match up awfully against the Astro righty.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies
Friday, August 20, 2021 at 8:40 p.m. ET in Coors Field in Denver
Home/Away
One way of looking at this game involves basic but useful consideration of venue.
Whereas Arizona has lost four straight road games, Colorado has won seven in a row at home, including a most recent sweep of San Diego, a team that is still 11 games above .500.
The betting numbers also reflect this disparity between ability at home and ability on the road, a disparity that is really rare to see.
Whereas the Rockies yield -24.1 units on the road, they generate +24.9 units at home.
Similarly, Arizona costs its backers 5.8 units at home, but 23 units outside of Arizona.
Austin Gomber
One Rockie player who thrives in Denver is today's starter, Austin Gomber.
Gomber yields a 1.70 ERA at home this year.
In his one start against Arizona this year, he allowed two earned runs in six innings on the road. He stands to improve upon this effort today at home, especially since Arizona also falls below league average against southpaws.
Tyler Gilbert
Diamondback starter Tyler Gilbert will fall back to earth tonight after his most recent no-hitter.
He matches up poorly against a Rockie lineup that ranks fifth in slugging against his three favorite pitches -- the ones that he throws over 20 percent of the time -- from righties combined.
The Verdict
Expect Houston and Colorado to run away at home today against Seattle and Arizona, respectively. Location and match-up are both going to be two crucial reasons for their success.
For the above reasons, invest in the Astros first-half run-line and the Rockies first-half run-line.
Best Bet: Astros First-Half RL at -130 & Rockies First-Half RL at -135 at +208 odds with Bovada
