MLB Parlay Picks of the Day
Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers
Friday, July 30, 2021 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Comerica Park in Detroit
Tarik Skubal vs. Oriole Batters
Skubal is in a bad spot tonight against an Oriole lineup that matches up well against him.
Primarily, Skubal throws a fastball and a slider. Those are his only two pitches that he throws with over 20-percent frequency.
Baltimore ranks second in slugging .480 and first in batting .305 against his two favorite pitches from lefties combined.
Its general success against lefties -- Baltimore ranks ninth in slugging against them -- contributes to the following statistic:
The over is hitting in 56.8 percent of its games against left-handed starters. This figure is 5.1 percent higher than the over rate in Oriole games against right-handed starters.
I like the Oriole lineup tonight because it can even count on same-handed batters.
Look out, for example, for left-handed hitter Cedric Mullins, who is hitting well over .300 and slugging over .500 against left-handed pitchers.
Matt Harvey vs. Tiger Batters
When Oriole starter Matt Harvey enjoyed his last two starts, he got to face lineups that weren't enjoying a positive streak.
Detroit, however, has scored five, six, 17, and six runs in its last four games, respectively.
Miguel Cabrera is worth watching out for. People insist that he is getting too old, but he has upped his slugging rate by .42 in his last four games.
Cabrera is 3-for-5 (.600) with a double in his career against Harvey.
Cleveland Indians vs. Chicago White Sox
Friday, July 30, 2021 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago
Fade J.C. Mejia
Cleveland starter J.C. Mejia is somebody who you should fade.
It is true that he is coming off his best start in a month. But in that start, he allowed five earned runs and three home runs.
Mejia has yielded an ERA of well over 7.00 in each of his last four starts.
You may ask why this guy continues to pitch if he's so bad. The answer is that the Indians still have two injured starting pitchers. So they simply lack alternatives.
Bounce-Back Spot
Chicago is in a great spot tonight because it is 5-2 this season in its first game back home after a road trip.
Coming off a couple of losses on the road including a rare shutout, the White Sox are where they want to be tonight in order to bounce back.
Lance Lynn
I also like the White Sox tonight because of their starter, Lance Lynn.
Contrary to Mejia, Lynn demonstrates great form. Lynn has allowed one earned run or fewer in each of his last five starts.
He is primed to perpetuate his solid form against Cleveland's lineup.
In 53 at-bats against Lynn, Indian hitters own a collective .113 BA and .302 slugging rate.
Amed Rosario, for example, is 0-for-3 with two strikeouts when facing Lynn.
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres
Friday, July 30, 2021 at 10:10 p.m. ET at Petco Park in San Diego
Jon Gray
Jon Gray has been a solid element for the Rockies.
Despite pitching for this losing team and facing several division leaders, he hasn't collected a loss in any of his last six starts.
He hasn't had to depend on Rockie hitting in order to help him, either.
In these last six starts, Gray allowed two earned runs or fewer five times. In the other start, he allowed three runs.
Gray vs. Padre Batters
Batting numbers against Rockie pitchers are tricky because they account for games in uniquely hitter-friendly Coors Field in Colorado.
But Gray pitches in San Diego tonight, where he enjoys a consistently superb history over a longer period of time.
Gray, in 11 career starts here, owns a 2.89 ERA.
Don't Trust Rockie Hitting
The Rockies are an awful team to back on the road because of their hitting.
Away from Coors Field, their BA is .209 and their slugging rate .320.
Their current road trip substantiates what I'm saying and also lends insight into their current form.
To be specific, they've scored two runs or fewer in four of their last six games.
Those rare exceptions came largely against struggling pitchers, not against guys like Padre starter Ryan Weathers.
Weathers has allowed one run against division opponents all season.
The Verdict
Tiger and Oriole bats will continue to flourish, the White Sox will run away from Cleveland at home thanks to a tremendous pitching edge, and Jon Gray along with Ryan Weathers will keep the first five innings low-scoring in San Diego.
Best Bet; Tigers/Orioles First-Half Over 5 at -120, White Sox First-Half RL at -145, Rockies/Padres First-Half Under 4.5 at -125 at +458 odds with Bovada
Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers
Friday, July 30, 2021 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Comerica Park in Detroit
Tarik Skubal vs. Oriole Batters
Skubal is in a bad spot tonight against an Oriole lineup that matches up well against him.
Primarily, Skubal throws a fastball and a slider. Those are his only two pitches that he throws with over 20-percent frequency.
Baltimore ranks second in slugging .480 and first in batting .305 against his two favorite pitches from lefties combined.
Its general success against lefties -- Baltimore ranks ninth in slugging against them -- contributes to the following statistic:
The over is hitting in 56.8 percent of its games against left-handed starters. This figure is 5.1 percent higher than the over rate in Oriole games against right-handed starters.
I like the Oriole lineup tonight because it can even count on same-handed batters.
Look out, for example, for left-handed hitter Cedric Mullins, who is hitting well over .300 and slugging over .500 against left-handed pitchers.
Matt Harvey vs. Tiger Batters
When Oriole starter Matt Harvey enjoyed his last two starts, he got to face lineups that weren't enjoying a positive streak.
Detroit, however, has scored five, six, 17, and six runs in its last four games, respectively.
Miguel Cabrera is worth watching out for. People insist that he is getting too old, but he has upped his slugging rate by .42 in his last four games.
Cabrera is 3-for-5 (.600) with a double in his career against Harvey.
Cleveland Indians vs. Chicago White Sox
Friday, July 30, 2021 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago
Fade J.C. Mejia
Cleveland starter J.C. Mejia is somebody who you should fade.
It is true that he is coming off his best start in a month. But in that start, he allowed five earned runs and three home runs.
Mejia has yielded an ERA of well over 7.00 in each of his last four starts.
You may ask why this guy continues to pitch if he's so bad. The answer is that the Indians still have two injured starting pitchers. So they simply lack alternatives.
Bounce-Back Spot
Chicago is in a great spot tonight because it is 5-2 this season in its first game back home after a road trip.
Coming off a couple of losses on the road including a rare shutout, the White Sox are where they want to be tonight in order to bounce back.
Lance Lynn
I also like the White Sox tonight because of their starter, Lance Lynn.
Contrary to Mejia, Lynn demonstrates great form. Lynn has allowed one earned run or fewer in each of his last five starts.
He is primed to perpetuate his solid form against Cleveland's lineup.
In 53 at-bats against Lynn, Indian hitters own a collective .113 BA and .302 slugging rate.
Amed Rosario, for example, is 0-for-3 with two strikeouts when facing Lynn.
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres
Friday, July 30, 2021 at 10:10 p.m. ET at Petco Park in San Diego
Jon Gray
Jon Gray has been a solid element for the Rockies.
Despite pitching for this losing team and facing several division leaders, he hasn't collected a loss in any of his last six starts.
He hasn't had to depend on Rockie hitting in order to help him, either.
In these last six starts, Gray allowed two earned runs or fewer five times. In the other start, he allowed three runs.
Gray vs. Padre Batters
Batting numbers against Rockie pitchers are tricky because they account for games in uniquely hitter-friendly Coors Field in Colorado.
But Gray pitches in San Diego tonight, where he enjoys a consistently superb history over a longer period of time.
Gray, in 11 career starts here, owns a 2.89 ERA.
Don't Trust Rockie Hitting
The Rockies are an awful team to back on the road because of their hitting.
Away from Coors Field, their BA is .209 and their slugging rate .320.
Their current road trip substantiates what I'm saying and also lends insight into their current form.
To be specific, they've scored two runs or fewer in four of their last six games.
Those rare exceptions came largely against struggling pitchers, not against guys like Padre starter Ryan Weathers.
Weathers has allowed one run against division opponents all season.
The Verdict
Tiger and Oriole bats will continue to flourish, the White Sox will run away from Cleveland at home thanks to a tremendous pitching edge, and Jon Gray along with Ryan Weathers will keep the first five innings low-scoring in San Diego.
Best Bet; Tigers/Orioles First-Half Over 5 at -120, White Sox First-Half RL at -145, Rockies/Padres First-Half Under 4.5 at -125 at +458 odds with Bovada
