MLB Parlay Picks of the Day
St Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds
Friday, July 23, 2021 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati
St. Louis's Situation
After triumphing at home against the archrival Cubs, the Cardinals will open up a road stand in Cincinnati.
Besides the fact that they are coming off of an exciting series win, the Cardinals are in a tough situation.
They have lost five straight road stand openers. These particular struggles are largely a product of bad hitting.
In their last road stand opener, they lost 5-2 at Colorado. In the road stand opener before that one, they lost 4-0 in Atlanta. The list continues.
Tyler Mahle
In contrast to the Cardinal team, Red starter Tyler Mahle finds himself in a great spot, a classic bounce-back spot for him.
He has allowed one earned run or fewer in all three of his starts that followed directly a start in which he allowed multiple home runs.
Mahle also boasts strong numbers against just about all of the Cardinal hitters, important ones, too.
Nolan Arenado, whose BA after the All-Star Break has been terrible, has zero extra-base hits against Mahle in 11 career at-bats.
Moreover, Tyler O'Neill is 3-for-13 (.231) with four strikeouts in his career against Mahle.
LeBlanc vs. Lefties
Cardinal starter Wade LeBlanc will keep the first half of this game low-scoring against a Red lineup that hits awfully against lefties.
Cincinnati's struggles against left-handed pitching remain recent and current issues. These specific problems also persist at home.
Their struggles against lefties in Cincinnati -- where they slug .366 against them -- create betting value in the following sense: the posted total is higher than usual because Cincinnati's ballpark is hitters-friendly, but the Reds struggle against lefties even at home.
For the above reasons, the first-half total is much too high.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota Twins
Friday, July 23, 2021 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Target Field in Minneapolis
Alex Cobb
Road stats in baseball can be a tricky thing because ballparks have different dimensions and therefore cater to different players.
But some players are simply unreliable in a road environment. One of those players is Alex Cobb, whose ERA this season is 6.37 on the road compared to 2.30 ERA at home.
His current road struggles are consistent with difficulties that he's encountered throughout his career in Minnesota.
In four career starts in Minnesota, Cobb's ERA is 5.49.
Plenty of Twin batters look primed to take advantage of Cobb's vulnerability on the road. In particular, Max Kepler and Andrelton Simmons are slugging .600 or higher in at least nine career at-bats against Cobb.
Not So Angelic Against Lefties
Bad news for Twin starter J.A. Happ: the Angels are not kind to lefties.
L.A.'s success against lefties contributes to the fact that the "over" is hitting in 70 percent of Angel games against a left-handed starter.
Specifically, the Angels lead the MLB in slugging .455 against lefties and continue to be supreme in this respect.
As you'd expect, Angel batters hit Happ very well. In 51 career at-bats against him, they hit .294 and slug .569.
Justin Upton, for example, is 5-for-11 (.455) with a triple and two homers against him.
Expect Upton to contribute to a high-scoring first five innings.
Oakland Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners
Friday, July 23, 2021 at 10:10 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Park in Seattle
Fade Kikuchi
In his last two starts, Mariner starter Yusei Kikuchi has allowed a combined total of three home runs and 12 earned runs in 10 innings.
You might say: well, he just faced the Angels, who are very good against lefties. So shouldn't we cut him some slack?
However, his recent results really aren't the problem.
Instead, his average fastball velocity has dropped significantly.
Whereas it was averaging in the upper 95's or 96 mph before his last two games, it is now averaging less than 95 mph.
In terms of slugging rate and expected slugging rate, batters are doing tremendously well against this pitch.
These are important details because his fastball is his second-favorite pitch.
The same kind of story can also be told about his favorite pitch, the cutter.
He has been desperate enough to throw way more sliders, although he generally doesn't like to throw this pitch very often.
Oakland's Advantages
Unlike Kikuchi, Athletic starter Frankie Montas shows great form.
Montas has allowed two earned runs or fewer in each of his last four starts.
His strong form is complemented by his match-up edge. The Mariners rank 28th in slugging against Montas's pitches from righties.
Oakland also shows a stronger team rhythm, having won its last three games by multiple runs, while Seattle has lost its last two by multiple runs.
For the above reasons, the A's have an edge in this game from the start.
Best Bet: Parlay Cardinals/Reds First-Half Under 5.5 at -110, Angels/Twins First-Half Over 5.5 at -120, Athletics First-Half RL at +115 at +652 odds with Bovada
St Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds
Friday, July 23, 2021 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati
St. Louis's Situation
After triumphing at home against the archrival Cubs, the Cardinals will open up a road stand in Cincinnati.
Besides the fact that they are coming off of an exciting series win, the Cardinals are in a tough situation.
They have lost five straight road stand openers. These particular struggles are largely a product of bad hitting.
In their last road stand opener, they lost 5-2 at Colorado. In the road stand opener before that one, they lost 4-0 in Atlanta. The list continues.
Tyler Mahle
In contrast to the Cardinal team, Red starter Tyler Mahle finds himself in a great spot, a classic bounce-back spot for him.
He has allowed one earned run or fewer in all three of his starts that followed directly a start in which he allowed multiple home runs.
Mahle also boasts strong numbers against just about all of the Cardinal hitters, important ones, too.
Nolan Arenado, whose BA after the All-Star Break has been terrible, has zero extra-base hits against Mahle in 11 career at-bats.
Moreover, Tyler O'Neill is 3-for-13 (.231) with four strikeouts in his career against Mahle.
LeBlanc vs. Lefties
Cardinal starter Wade LeBlanc will keep the first half of this game low-scoring against a Red lineup that hits awfully against lefties.
Cincinnati's struggles against left-handed pitching remain recent and current issues. These specific problems also persist at home.
Their struggles against lefties in Cincinnati -- where they slug .366 against them -- create betting value in the following sense: the posted total is higher than usual because Cincinnati's ballpark is hitters-friendly, but the Reds struggle against lefties even at home.
For the above reasons, the first-half total is much too high.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota Twins
Friday, July 23, 2021 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Target Field in Minneapolis
Alex Cobb
Road stats in baseball can be a tricky thing because ballparks have different dimensions and therefore cater to different players.
But some players are simply unreliable in a road environment. One of those players is Alex Cobb, whose ERA this season is 6.37 on the road compared to 2.30 ERA at home.
His current road struggles are consistent with difficulties that he's encountered throughout his career in Minnesota.
In four career starts in Minnesota, Cobb's ERA is 5.49.
Plenty of Twin batters look primed to take advantage of Cobb's vulnerability on the road. In particular, Max Kepler and Andrelton Simmons are slugging .600 or higher in at least nine career at-bats against Cobb.
Not So Angelic Against Lefties
Bad news for Twin starter J.A. Happ: the Angels are not kind to lefties.
L.A.'s success against lefties contributes to the fact that the "over" is hitting in 70 percent of Angel games against a left-handed starter.
Specifically, the Angels lead the MLB in slugging .455 against lefties and continue to be supreme in this respect.
As you'd expect, Angel batters hit Happ very well. In 51 career at-bats against him, they hit .294 and slug .569.
Justin Upton, for example, is 5-for-11 (.455) with a triple and two homers against him.
Expect Upton to contribute to a high-scoring first five innings.
Oakland Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners
Friday, July 23, 2021 at 10:10 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Park in Seattle
Fade Kikuchi
In his last two starts, Mariner starter Yusei Kikuchi has allowed a combined total of three home runs and 12 earned runs in 10 innings.
You might say: well, he just faced the Angels, who are very good against lefties. So shouldn't we cut him some slack?
However, his recent results really aren't the problem.
Instead, his average fastball velocity has dropped significantly.
Whereas it was averaging in the upper 95's or 96 mph before his last two games, it is now averaging less than 95 mph.
In terms of slugging rate and expected slugging rate, batters are doing tremendously well against this pitch.
These are important details because his fastball is his second-favorite pitch.
The same kind of story can also be told about his favorite pitch, the cutter.
He has been desperate enough to throw way more sliders, although he generally doesn't like to throw this pitch very often.
Oakland's Advantages
Unlike Kikuchi, Athletic starter Frankie Montas shows great form.
Montas has allowed two earned runs or fewer in each of his last four starts.
His strong form is complemented by his match-up edge. The Mariners rank 28th in slugging against Montas's pitches from righties.
Oakland also shows a stronger team rhythm, having won its last three games by multiple runs, while Seattle has lost its last two by multiple runs.
For the above reasons, the A's have an edge in this game from the start.
Best Bet: Parlay Cardinals/Reds First-Half Under 5.5 at -110, Angels/Twins First-Half Over 5.5 at -120, Athletics First-Half RL at +115 at +652 odds with Bovada
