NBA Parlay Picks of the Day
Utah Jazz vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Friday, June 18, 2021 at 10 p.m. ET (ESPN) at STAPLES Center in Los Angeles
The Odds
For tonight's game, sports betting sites opened the Clippers as 1.5-point underdogs.
This spread might seem strange because the Clippers at home. In their last home game against Utah, the Clippers were favored by five points.
The strong shift in the spread in Utah's favor has to do with Kawhi Leonard, the Clipper star who will miss tonight's game due to injury.
This spread is no "trap," baiting you to bite the home underdog. It is simply a reflection of Kawhi's very positive public perception.
Kawhi Who?
Maybe this section title is a bit sensationalistic. I don't want to deny that Kawhi is a great player.
But we literally just saw a game in which his absence did not matter.
For Game 5, the Clippers were initially three-point underdogs and they closed as 8.5-point underdogs after Kawhi's injury was announced.
Despite his absence, the Clippers not only covered the spread with ease. They won by eight points.
Scheme
Bettors mistakenly place too much emphasis on injuries because we live in an age populated by vociferous media personalities and pervasive media organs that worship the superstar.
Nobody cares about things like tactics because it's hard to attach much sensation to x's and o's.
But, as Game 5 showed, tactics are critically important because they can more than make up for the absence of important players.
While I am harping on Game 5, I am not really talking about a one-game sample.
Rather, I am talking about the last three games in which the Clippers upped their scoring output and won.
Their improvement, plainly independent of Kawhi's presence, is a product of the team's newfound devotion to small-ball principles.
Small ball has been the bane of Gobert's defensive existence.
Rudy Gobert
Utah's defense is anchored by three-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert.
Gobert is at his best when he can position himself near the basket where he will swat away anything that a player attempts at the basket (unless Terance Mann is trying to dunk, of course!)
Besides providing superb rim protection, he allows his perimeter defenders to guard their opponent more closely behind the arc.
Jazz perimeter defenders know that they can be more aggressive because, if their man gets past them, Gobert will clean up any messes at the rim.
But with small ball, the Clippers are forcing Gobert away from the basket, thus nullifying his skill set as a shot-blocker by removing him from the space on the court where he is strongest.
Hence, Gobert's defensive rating was an excellent 103.6 through the first two games of the series.
After Game 2, that is, after the Clippers switched to small ball, Gobert's defensive rating has worsened to 121.7 (a defensive rating is worse when it's higher).
This is a huge change, one that largely explains why, given Gobert's importance to the team's defense, the Clippers are scoring more than 10 points per game than they did in Games 1 and 2.
Scorers
Power forward Nicolas Batum, for example, has continued to receive an uptick in minutes, of which he accrued 42 in Game 5.
As a threat behind the arc, Batum is also attempting even more threes than usual. He's converting 50 percent of them this series.
Paul George has also stepped up in Kawhi's absence, despite his sardonically conceived reputation as "Playoff Paul."
He has scored 30+ points in three straight games. He drives inside, forcing Jazz defenders to collapse, and can kick it out to a number of efficient Clipper shooters like Marcus Morris and Reggie Jackson, both of whom are converting over 40 percent of their three-point attempts this series.
Jackson has also been tremendous as a big-time shot-maker who can attack inside when he doesn't shoot from behind the arc.
These guys are scoring more because Jazz perimeter defenders aren't able to be as aggressive with Gobert behind them protecting the rim.
But Utah's perimeter defenders also lack the quality to stay in front of their man and limit opposing open wide three-point attempts, which the Clippers are generating at easily the highest rate of any team left in the playoffs.
Hobbling Jazz Scorers
Donovan Mitchell is listed as 'questionable' for tonight's game with ankle problems.
His injury is limiting his ability to explode past people, which is a big part of his game as somebody who loves to drive inside.
His lack of driving ability, a lack that is exacerbated by the increased ball pressure that a smaller and therefore speedier, but still also lengthier, Clipper defense is able to devote to him, is making him less dangerous as both a scorer and a distributor.
Without the ball-handling prowess of the likewise injured Mike Conley -- who may try to play tonight -- the Jazz lack ball-handling options.
They lack options inside even with the Clippers playing small, such that they are attempting even more three-pointers than usual. This reliance on threes is typically problematic in another team's arena.
Moreover, the Clippers are playing Terance Mann over 20 minutes instead of fewer than 10. He owns a stronger defensive rating than even Gobert's in the first two games of the series.
Total Verdict
Despite my concerns over Utah's offensive multi-dimensionality and its guards, I still like the "over" because the best way for Utah to finally deal with the Clippers' schematic adjustment is going to be by scoring more points.
Gobert has struggled defensively in three straight games. He does not have an answer for the Clipper offense.
But we have seen stretches where he uses his size inside on offense -- like on put-back chances or otherwise -- and where other Jazz players assert themselves inside.
In addition to jacking up a lot of threes, the Jazz will have enough size and skill inside to push the score over the betting total.
Best Bet: Parlay Clippers +2 at 108 & Over 219 at -108 at +271 odds with Heritage
Utah Jazz vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Friday, June 18, 2021 at 10 p.m. ET (ESPN) at STAPLES Center in Los Angeles
The Odds
For tonight's game, sports betting sites opened the Clippers as 1.5-point underdogs.
This spread might seem strange because the Clippers at home. In their last home game against Utah, the Clippers were favored by five points.
The strong shift in the spread in Utah's favor has to do with Kawhi Leonard, the Clipper star who will miss tonight's game due to injury.
This spread is no "trap," baiting you to bite the home underdog. It is simply a reflection of Kawhi's very positive public perception.
Kawhi Who?
Maybe this section title is a bit sensationalistic. I don't want to deny that Kawhi is a great player.
But we literally just saw a game in which his absence did not matter.
For Game 5, the Clippers were initially three-point underdogs and they closed as 8.5-point underdogs after Kawhi's injury was announced.
Despite his absence, the Clippers not only covered the spread with ease. They won by eight points.
Scheme
Bettors mistakenly place too much emphasis on injuries because we live in an age populated by vociferous media personalities and pervasive media organs that worship the superstar.
Nobody cares about things like tactics because it's hard to attach much sensation to x's and o's.
But, as Game 5 showed, tactics are critically important because they can more than make up for the absence of important players.
While I am harping on Game 5, I am not really talking about a one-game sample.
Rather, I am talking about the last three games in which the Clippers upped their scoring output and won.
Their improvement, plainly independent of Kawhi's presence, is a product of the team's newfound devotion to small-ball principles.
Small ball has been the bane of Gobert's defensive existence.
Rudy Gobert
Utah's defense is anchored by three-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert.
Gobert is at his best when he can position himself near the basket where he will swat away anything that a player attempts at the basket (unless Terance Mann is trying to dunk, of course!)
Besides providing superb rim protection, he allows his perimeter defenders to guard their opponent more closely behind the arc.
Jazz perimeter defenders know that they can be more aggressive because, if their man gets past them, Gobert will clean up any messes at the rim.
But with small ball, the Clippers are forcing Gobert away from the basket, thus nullifying his skill set as a shot-blocker by removing him from the space on the court where he is strongest.
Hence, Gobert's defensive rating was an excellent 103.6 through the first two games of the series.
After Game 2, that is, after the Clippers switched to small ball, Gobert's defensive rating has worsened to 121.7 (a defensive rating is worse when it's higher).
This is a huge change, one that largely explains why, given Gobert's importance to the team's defense, the Clippers are scoring more than 10 points per game than they did in Games 1 and 2.
Scorers
Power forward Nicolas Batum, for example, has continued to receive an uptick in minutes, of which he accrued 42 in Game 5.
As a threat behind the arc, Batum is also attempting even more threes than usual. He's converting 50 percent of them this series.
Paul George has also stepped up in Kawhi's absence, despite his sardonically conceived reputation as "Playoff Paul."
He has scored 30+ points in three straight games. He drives inside, forcing Jazz defenders to collapse, and can kick it out to a number of efficient Clipper shooters like Marcus Morris and Reggie Jackson, both of whom are converting over 40 percent of their three-point attempts this series.
Jackson has also been tremendous as a big-time shot-maker who can attack inside when he doesn't shoot from behind the arc.
These guys are scoring more because Jazz perimeter defenders aren't able to be as aggressive with Gobert behind them protecting the rim.
But Utah's perimeter defenders also lack the quality to stay in front of their man and limit opposing open wide three-point attempts, which the Clippers are generating at easily the highest rate of any team left in the playoffs.
Hobbling Jazz Scorers
Donovan Mitchell is listed as 'questionable' for tonight's game with ankle problems.
His injury is limiting his ability to explode past people, which is a big part of his game as somebody who loves to drive inside.
His lack of driving ability, a lack that is exacerbated by the increased ball pressure that a smaller and therefore speedier, but still also lengthier, Clipper defense is able to devote to him, is making him less dangerous as both a scorer and a distributor.
Without the ball-handling prowess of the likewise injured Mike Conley -- who may try to play tonight -- the Jazz lack ball-handling options.
They lack options inside even with the Clippers playing small, such that they are attempting even more three-pointers than usual. This reliance on threes is typically problematic in another team's arena.
Moreover, the Clippers are playing Terance Mann over 20 minutes instead of fewer than 10. He owns a stronger defensive rating than even Gobert's in the first two games of the series.
Total Verdict
Despite my concerns over Utah's offensive multi-dimensionality and its guards, I still like the "over" because the best way for Utah to finally deal with the Clippers' schematic adjustment is going to be by scoring more points.
Gobert has struggled defensively in three straight games. He does not have an answer for the Clipper offense.
But we have seen stretches where he uses his size inside on offense -- like on put-back chances or otherwise -- and where other Jazz players assert themselves inside.
In addition to jacking up a lot of threes, the Jazz will have enough size and skill inside to push the score over the betting total.
Best Bet: Parlay Clippers +2 at 108 & Over 219 at -108 at +271 odds with Heritage
