NCAAF Week 2 Picks Parlay for Friday's Games
Marshall vs Boise State - Marshall First-Half +6.5
After a legendary, emotional win on Saturday that Boise State achieved through an 18-point comeback against Florida State, the Broncos find themselves in a classic let-down spot.
In these let-down scenarios, I prefer to bet the first half only because I find that the relevant team often regroups in the locker room at half-time before threatening to cover the full-game spread.
The situation also favors Marshall because Boise State had to reveal more of itself in order to come back against Florida State while Marshall could sleepwalk to its win against VMI.
One weakness that Boise State revealed and that Marshall can exploit is Boise State's pass protection. The Broncos allowed six sacks and eight quarterback hurries in their opener against Florida State. Even when quarterback Hank Bachmeier wasn't getting hit, he was frequently under duress and often picking himself off the ground.
Marshall will try to blitz a lot in order to exploit Bronco quarterback Bachmeier's proclivity to hang on to the ball too long. The Herd return the bulk of a front seven that helped Marshall rank 27th last year in sack rate.
One key player is defensive tackle Channing Hames, who, last year, led the Herd with 12.5 tackles for loss and was second on the team with 7.5 sacks. Another one who looks to become as reliable is FIU transfer Fermin Silva, who amassed 6.5 sacks in 2017 and hopefully shook off any rust after playing last Saturday for the first time since September 22, 2018.
On the other side of the ball, the amount of tackles that Boise State defenders missed must seem alarming as it allowed different Seminole position players to make big plays -- such as the numerous missed tackles that allowed Florida State to sustain and score on its opening drive and the ones that made Tamorrion Terry's 75-yard touchdown catch off a screen look easy.
Tyler King and Brenden Knox are Marshall's two returning running backs, each of whom led the team last year with 6.1 YPC on over 90 rush attempts. They'll exploit Boise State's tackling inconsistency behind a veteran offensive line that returns 111 career starts.
For as good as Bachmeier looked while picking apart Florida State's zone defense, Marshall's quarterback has the developmental edge. Isaiah Green finished last season -- his first as the Herd's starting quarterback -- throwing three interceptions in his final four games compared to six in his first three.
He's always had a strong arm and, as he becomes ever more consistent and efficient in terms of accuracy, he's a more constant big-play threat and playmaker.
William & Mary vs Virginia - Tribe +34.5 at 5Dimes
After soundly defeating Pittsburgh in its opener, Virginia enjoys strong public perception, which surely explains the early three-point line move in its favor.
Virginia, though, is in a bad spot for bettors, having to face an FCS team after its ACC opener and before playing fellow ACC opponent Florida State.
Under Coach Mendenhall, Virginia has built a consistent history against weaker opponents, going 0-2 ATS when favored by 20 points or more. Both of those opponents were low-profile programs from the same state who were exceptionally motivated given the local Virginia ties of many of their players.
The Tribe have also covered their last two games in the series -- in 2015 before Mendenhall arrived and in 2017.
While the two-game sample size is small, Virginia's mentality under Mendenhall against both low-profile underdogs was more than transparent. Last year, Liberty scored 24 points in its cover thanks largely to a first-half effort that saw it down only 24-17.
For about three quarters, until the score was 31-24, the Flames had no trouble moving the ball down the field. They accumulated 354 total yards of offense against a top-level ACC defense that allowed 14 fewer yards per game.
While Virginia is obviously the more talented team, considerations of player quality go out the window in a sandwich or lookahead spot that clearly favors the underdog.
Marshall vs Boise State - Marshall First-Half +6.5
After a legendary, emotional win on Saturday that Boise State achieved through an 18-point comeback against Florida State, the Broncos find themselves in a classic let-down spot.
In these let-down scenarios, I prefer to bet the first half only because I find that the relevant team often regroups in the locker room at half-time before threatening to cover the full-game spread.
The situation also favors Marshall because Boise State had to reveal more of itself in order to come back against Florida State while Marshall could sleepwalk to its win against VMI.
One weakness that Boise State revealed and that Marshall can exploit is Boise State's pass protection. The Broncos allowed six sacks and eight quarterback hurries in their opener against Florida State. Even when quarterback Hank Bachmeier wasn't getting hit, he was frequently under duress and often picking himself off the ground.
Marshall will try to blitz a lot in order to exploit Bronco quarterback Bachmeier's proclivity to hang on to the ball too long. The Herd return the bulk of a front seven that helped Marshall rank 27th last year in sack rate.
One key player is defensive tackle Channing Hames, who, last year, led the Herd with 12.5 tackles for loss and was second on the team with 7.5 sacks. Another one who looks to become as reliable is FIU transfer Fermin Silva, who amassed 6.5 sacks in 2017 and hopefully shook off any rust after playing last Saturday for the first time since September 22, 2018.
On the other side of the ball, the amount of tackles that Boise State defenders missed must seem alarming as it allowed different Seminole position players to make big plays -- such as the numerous missed tackles that allowed Florida State to sustain and score on its opening drive and the ones that made Tamorrion Terry's 75-yard touchdown catch off a screen look easy.
Tyler King and Brenden Knox are Marshall's two returning running backs, each of whom led the team last year with 6.1 YPC on over 90 rush attempts. They'll exploit Boise State's tackling inconsistency behind a veteran offensive line that returns 111 career starts.
For as good as Bachmeier looked while picking apart Florida State's zone defense, Marshall's quarterback has the developmental edge. Isaiah Green finished last season -- his first as the Herd's starting quarterback -- throwing three interceptions in his final four games compared to six in his first three.
He's always had a strong arm and, as he becomes ever more consistent and efficient in terms of accuracy, he's a more constant big-play threat and playmaker.
William & Mary vs Virginia - Tribe +34.5 at 5Dimes
After soundly defeating Pittsburgh in its opener, Virginia enjoys strong public perception, which surely explains the early three-point line move in its favor.
Virginia, though, is in a bad spot for bettors, having to face an FCS team after its ACC opener and before playing fellow ACC opponent Florida State.
Under Coach Mendenhall, Virginia has built a consistent history against weaker opponents, going 0-2 ATS when favored by 20 points or more. Both of those opponents were low-profile programs from the same state who were exceptionally motivated given the local Virginia ties of many of their players.
The Tribe have also covered their last two games in the series -- in 2015 before Mendenhall arrived and in 2017.
While the two-game sample size is small, Virginia's mentality under Mendenhall against both low-profile underdogs was more than transparent. Last year, Liberty scored 24 points in its cover thanks largely to a first-half effort that saw it down only 24-17.
For about three quarters, until the score was 31-24, the Flames had no trouble moving the ball down the field. They accumulated 354 total yards of offense against a top-level ACC defense that allowed 14 fewer yards per game.
While Virginia is obviously the more talented team, considerations of player quality go out the window in a sandwich or lookahead spot that clearly favors the underdog.
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