Thanks for Friday info about Blue Jackets.
Why I like Atlanta?
Again, trying to get my "line reading" skill up for another point
First - teams haven't played for a while against each other, actually they have only one meeting over the last 2 seasons and that was here, in Atlanta when Canucks won 2-1.
Second, here are some stats to show us how really bad the Thrashers have been lately (all numbers Straight Up):
- they're
3-7 over their last 10 games and
1-4 over their last 5
- they're
1-4 over their last 5 home games and
1-10 in their last 11
- they're
3-13 on 1 day rest and
2-10 off a loss
At the same time, Vancouver is 5-5 over their last 10 games and playing their 2nd B2B game where they've posted so far a 4-2 record.
One would expect the line would be at least -160 towards Vancouver but instead it's opened at -127 and with majority of people on Canucks, has been moving down slightly (at the moment it's at -131).
However, there are some other numbers I'd like to share with you:
Vancouver won
only 3 from their last 9 road games (two at Nashville and one at Minnesota) while being shutout twice and
outscored 28-19.
Vancouver has been favored on the road only 2 times so far, and
both times they lost:
1) they were -115 favorites @ Chicago and
lost 2-4
2) they were -169 favorites @ NY Islanders and
lost 1-2 in SO
Both times they had
Luongo in goal.
At the same time, Atlanta is so far 3-3 SU as a home underdog in the price range from +100 to +125 winning against WAS 7-4 (at +125), 3-2 vs BUF (at +115) and against CAR 3-2 (as +110). They lost to MIN, PHI and CAR.
More important is the fact that the Thrashers recently played pretty good games vs Boston (L 1-2) and Carolina (L 4-5). They were in each of those games until the end and the results could've been different if they had just a little more luck (read: a few bounces here and there going their way). And the lone fact that they held Boston to only 2 goals in their most recent game while we know Bruins been averaging 3 to 4 goals per game - now that should be a huge thing (from confidence standpoint) for them, going into this game.
I know they've lost their last 2 games following that solid performance vs Boston but the good thing is - they haven't been blown out plus they're constantly trying and trying and trying. Effort is there, no question about it. Kovalchuk ended the longest goal drought in his career in their most recent game vs Carolina and prior to that they had a close game @ Toronto (L 3-4 in OT).
I'm definitely playing ATL +1.5 here but also thinking about taking a shot at the moneyline too.
