Friday Night NCAA Discussion

[C-MAN]

Only 2 games tonight so let's break them down. Both lines are on the rise. I'm seeing Lou -15 and MD -11 currently.

I'm going to start with the MD/FIU game and post some thoughts here as I go. Would love to hear from some of the MD guys.

 

[C-MAN]

The Indiana 34 - FIU 13 week 1 result was one of those deceiving final scores. FIU was leading going into the 4Q despite giving up a punt block safety and pick 6 in the 1H. The 4Q was all Indiana but, despite being down 14, FIU still had a chance to cover late in the 4Q and threw another pick 6.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Public perception might be a bit too high on Louisville right now after that QB's week 1 performance. But I think they beat Cuse by 3 TDs tonight. No way that Cuse offense can keep up.

 

[C-MAN]

FIU was young last year and decimated with injuries but still managed to win 5 games. They should be better this year but they will have to run and take care of the ball better than they did in week one. The defense was only responsible for 17 points given up against Indiana. Maryland ran well last week and would expect them to try to do the same. Maybe 1H under

 

[M.W.]

Public perception might be a bit too high on Louisville right now after that QB's week 1 performance.

He threw for 8 TDs? LOL! Karma's going to grab him by the leg one of these days and twist the hell out of that knee!

This Louisville hype is ridiculous.

 

[M.W.]

UL scored more than 21 points in a grand total of three ACC games last year (in games 9, 10, and 11 vs. Syr, UVA and Pitt), and Bolin was the starting QB in all 3. Granted, Jackson's starts were against better offensive teams, but the narrative that Jackson has given UL a "high-powered offense" because he progressed as a freshman as he gained experience last year is totally bogus. Most of the big scoring numbers at the end of the year were with Bolin at QB.

 

[Timh]

Obviously hard to gauge MD based on performance against Howard, as it was just a class mismatch all the way around but I was pleased that Durkin used a number of the young offensive players in the game. Terps had 6 kids with over 40 rushing yards and managed to find time for both freshman qbs to get some action. Walt Bell has basically said the Terps don't plan on platooning at QB and it is Hills job, so he should see all of the reps and most of the game time going forward. Caleb Rowe has been cleared to play and listed as co-backup. I kind of felt like Rowe might get an oppty with the new coaching staff this year, as he potentially is better throwing the ball downfield than Hills but admittedly he was terrible last year under Edsall/Locksley and threw way too many picks and made poor decisions. However, I still think with the right coaching that he could contribute. Hills looks to have improved this year with the benefit of some off-season tutelage from Gus Frerotte, and Bell has been very happy with his competitiveness and work habits. FIU big ? mark coming into the season is their DL and ability to stop the rush and get pressure on opposition. Indiana ran for 236 yds, so I think that bodes well for MD ability to continue to try and develop a sold rushing game (something they have sorely lacked over the last couple years). My major concerns about MD are both of their lines, and whether they will be able to hold up against better competition. I do think they will really focus on running the football in this matchup and they should have success against FIU. Hills brings the element of being able to run also which will help, and I think he has adapted well to Bell's system in camp and looks pretty comfortable out there. The line seems about right to me at 10.5 and I don't know if I'm interested in laying that with MD on the road and prob will be satisfied just watching or maybe 2h play.

 

[M.W.]

A little more on UL/Cuse:

UL was 1-3 ATS as double-digit favorites last year, including 0-2 with Jackson as starting QB. The first was his first start ever (home vs. Houston), a straight-up loss as -13. That one's easy to understand -- UH was obviously underrated at the time, the line was too high as a result, and it was Jackson's first start. The other time UL was favored by double digits with Jackson at QB, however, it was at Wake, and they won just 20-19.

Jackson started five ACC games last year, and UL scored 17, 20, 21, 17, and 20 points in those games. Those five teams did include the three best defenses in the ACC (BC, Clemson, and FSU), but UL managed just 20 against NC State and 20 against Wake, teams that allowed an average of 26 and 25 points, respectively.

Syracuse put up 30 and 29 points against those teams. Syracuse also outscored UL versus Clemson and BC, and scored the same number (21) as UL vs. FSU. That's all their division games except the head-to-head, which UL won 41-17 with the other QB (Bolin) at the helm. I think the hype for Jackson and the UL offense has gotten way out of hand.

 

[Metallica]

GL tonight C-Man.

 

[DeadEyeDuckie]

I'm not sure how to handle the Louisville hype. Talent wise, development wise, skills wise...are they improved from last year? I think if we can say yes on this, then I would lean Louisville here mainly because of the Bobby Petrino "Foot on the gas pedal" until the end factor. I remember back in 2004ish during his first go-around with Louisville he was easily one of those coaches who you could depend on for "style points" to try and get his team more hype/attention.

Any Syracuse people here or anyone have thoughts on them?

 

[C-MAN]

Think 1H bets are the ticket tonight. Both dogs 1H and 1H under 28.5 in the Md/FIU game. If the road faves cover it will prob be from MD wearing down FIU or Petrino putting up style points. GL to everyone with whatever you decide.