Friday Night Games

divol

The Spurs can suck my manhood
Tought card tonight to be honest.

One very good bet, Heat +5 (and ML) and a few medium ones on the Kings, Raptors and maybe Bobcats.

I will start with the Heat and later will do short write ups on other picks.

Heat and Portland played already in Portland and than Portland got +3.5 line, but didn't need it and won straight up. Than Heat were getting inflated liens and Portland was good money. Now Miami gettibg at home 5 points line??? That is 8.5 points turnaround with the same players. I'm not sure, but I think this is some sort of a record, at least for me, in all my years as a capper I don't remeber anything like that (maybe it was, but I personally can't recall).
Portland are getting inflated lines right now and why on earth should we back such a poor road team as Portland when it got such a high line to overcome?
First of all, Wade should really get it going tonight. Who will guard him? Webster and Outlaw I presume and both Wade can handle. One isn't fast enough the other isn't too much of a defender.
Secondly, I think that Portland are showing signs of going down the hill. All the little things that went their way in other games, aren't there or aren't helping. The lost after OT in Toronto, after superb fight back, the loss in Boston after gaining momentum in HT with a great three pointer from Blake. It like it's there, but not as before and this is the perfect spot for the Heat backers. The opponent isn't as good as the top teams, but the line is as if it was and if the dogs come to Miami and fight, Portland as a favorite, agaisnt such an expirienced team shoud have tough time and I believe that Heat will win this one.
Heat +5 - 8/10

Best of Luck everybody!!!
 
Cant decide either way on this, I think the opening line @ 3.5 had some value for Portland backers, but eventually 5 what it is now, and possibly 6 by gametime is value imho for the heat.

Gl
 
Man this makes absolutely no sense at all. Portland is a completely different team than what they were in the beginning of the year. Your logic is so flawed. Ever heard of the stock market? Stocks don't remain the same throughout the year, people buy and sell. South Florida was #2 in the beginning of the year in football.. South Carolina was ranked higher than Southern Cal at one point do you think the line would be slightly different in week 4 than it would be if they played the last game of the year?
 
Also you would be an awful debater, you point out Portlands poor road record, but fail to mention the Heats winning % at home is worst than Portlands road record. Portlands last few road losses are to boston, toronto, utah, san antonio and dallas, if you can point out which one of those teams is worst than miami i would love to hear it. ANything can happen in gambling, but to say Miami should be favored in this game is laughable
 
There are lines shifts, but such a strong shift I haven't seen ever. If you remember such an example, would love for you to show me (I'm not cynical).

Anyway, this is not the reason for the pick of course. I'm sorry, but I really don't rate Portland that high on the road. I think that the stock that is called Portland is too inflated and Portland are in a bad spot and will lose anyway. The high handicap surely adds confidence, since Portland won a few games after superb comebacks. I know that many are playing Portland tonight, but that is my opinion. If I'm wrong, I will lose. Not the first or the last time I'm sure if that happens.
 
Also you would be an awful debater, you point out Portlands poor road record, but fail to mention the Heats winning % at home is worst than Portlands road record. Portlands last few road losses are to boston, toronto, utah, san antonio and dallas, if you can point out which one of those teams is worst than miami i would love to hear it. ANything can happen in gambling, but to say Miami should be favored in this game is laughable

You really can't compare the two records. Portland haven't dealt so far with real injuries, mainly because besides Roy, they have very balanced team and even Roy isn't as important to Portland as Shaq or Wade to Miami. Miami on the other hand, dealt with many injuries and problems this season and now, most of the team is healthy.
I don't know your record, but I got behind be three season of success so I must be doing something right I guess. You don't like the pick? You think this is a bad pick? maybe you're right. You got your opinion and I got mine. Only one game, anything can happen and if Miami wins by 20 points that doesn't a thing and if it gets trashed by the same result...
 
I didn't say anything about the pick. I said i completely disagreed making miami 3 pt favorites.
 
lakers went from +8 @ boston to -3 at home. I'm assuming thats the largest turn around this season.

gl on the play. I really feel like miami will win it outright, and I think the NBA (refs) will help make it happen.
 
You right, I couldn't understand that change either. But one big difference, if we assume that home court gives 3 points, than if it was neutral grounds, than it would have been -5 in Boston and PK at Staples Center. Here we got from +3 at home to -5 on a road...
 
oh right. I didn't see you factor in the home court for the lines......but thats cuz the road teams were both the favs lol.
 
DIVOL... my man! think you are the only other person I have seen on this play. Line started out at 4.5, now at 3.5... funny because I know there is heavy action on Portland. Lets see how the line movement plays out tonite. Perception is not always reality in the NBA. Any given night... GL bro.
 
Decided to play only this play tonight and the Raptors 3/10 as well.
Kings and Bobcats I deciced to pass tonight.
Adding 2 units on Heat ML as well...
 
The Heat dissapointed after losing the lead in the fourth that they took in the third and Wade dissapeared yet again when money on the table (as he did against the Magic in OT).
Toronto cashed in.

+6 units in 2008 so far...
 
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