Friday Night Lights: Memphis-SMU Clash Leads Double Pack on Primetime TV
Friday night’s betting card offers two games, both of which begin at 9 PM ET. Most would expect Memphis and SMU to be the most competitive of the pair. But New Mexico may surprise people as large dogs against Boise State.
Memphis (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS, 5-4 O/U) at SMU (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS, 5-5 O/U)
Friday, 9 ET (ESPN 2)
NCAAF Pick: Under 72.5
When oddsmakers set a point total that is this high, bettors aren’t actually making an argument for the „over“ when they point out the strong quality of each offense because that quality is already evident in the total. In order to exceed a high total, offenses need to be more than just good. They need to move the ball quickly down the field because, if they move too slowly, they can score almost as often as they want, but they won’t exceed the total because they will lack sufficient opportunity to do so.
Memphis seems like a strong „over“ candidate because their offense is largely predicated on big plays. The „over“ is a huge public play probably because Memphis ranks in the top 20 in both yards per rush and yards per pass completion. The „over“ has hit when Memphis played Georgia State, South Alabama, and East Carolina, each of whose defenses ranks outside the top 100 in ISO PPP+, a statistic that measures how good a defense is at limiting opposing big plays. The „over“ also hit when Memphis played Missouri and its NFL-caliber quarterback and against Tulsa, the last game in which Memphis clinched bowl eligibility and nudged the game total „over“ with a special teams touchdown and a second touchdown following another big special teams play.
Conversely, Memphis went „under“ against Navy and Tulane, each of which had an insane amount of time of possession thanks to its run-first offense, against U Conn, which hardly scored, and against UCF, which ranks 27th in ISO PPP+. SMU ranks four spots behind UCF in the category. SMU doesn’t allow a lot of big plays on the ground. Its pass defense ranks outside the top 100 in opposing pass completion and in the top 50 in opposing yards per completion because it is inclined to play soft coverage in order to keep the ball in front of it and prevent the big play. SMU’s top defender is NFL-caliber cornerback Jordan Wyatt, who matches up well with Memphis’ top receiver Damonte Coxie in terms of height, size, and speed. Wyatt is listed as „questionable,“ though. He was limping a bit after his last game. His undisclosed injury doesn’t seem serious. But, just in case, you may want to check the injury report before placing your bet.
SMU, unlike Memphis, is not a big-play offense, although it is pass-first. It ranks 93rd in yards per completion. Teams generally try to run against Memphis. The Tigers rank 87th in opposing run play percentage. Memphis boasts a solid secondary that ranks top 50 nationally in terms of opposing passer rating and completion percentage against conference opponents. It is led by safety Josh Perry, who had originally committed to Alabama. SMU games have gone „over“ against a then-underrated Michigan offense, Navy’s option attack, and in three games where the Mustangs produced a ton of points. However, Memphis’ Defensive Coordinator Chad Ball has SMU quarterback Ben Hicks figured out. Hicks had his lowest yardage total in each of the last two seasons against Memphis.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="de"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Here is another crazy stat regarding Lobo football as we get ready to take on nationally-ranked Boise State on Friday night...<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/GoLobos?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#GoLobos</a> <a href="https://t.co/O7SJj0VS1L">pic.twitter.com/O7SJj0VS1L</a></p>— New Mexico Football (@UNMLoboFB) <a href=" ">13. November 2018</a></blockquote>
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Boise State (8-2 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) at New Mexico (3-7 SU, 4-6 ATS)
Friday, 9 ET (CBSSN)
NCAAF Pick: New Mexico +20.5
This is a strong spot for the underdog for two reasons. Firstly, this year, the NCAA established a new rule whereby players are allowed to play in four games and still maintain their redshirt. Boise State coach Bryan Harsin announced that he plans to make ample use of this rule against New Mexico. He wants to feature new faces by giving them playing time plus he wants to fill in gaps left by injuries on the defense. The Broncos have four defensive starters on the injury report plus a defensive lineman who had provided depth by frequently rotating into the game. Secondly, Boise State faces ranked Utah State next week in what promises to constitute an exciting climax to the regular season. Favored by nearly three touchdowns against the Lobos, Boise State is apt to look ahead to its next opponent.
Match-up wise, New Mexico will find success through the air. Quarterback Sheriron Jones has faced two defenses within his conference that rank in the top 20 in opposing passer rating and he played awfully against both. But, he faced three defenses that rank outside the top 90 in the category—Colorado State, UNLV, and Air Force, and threw for combined six touchdowns and one interception against those teams. Boise State ranks 97th in the category. The Broncos’ pass defense is vulnerable to conceding big plays. It ranks 96th in opposing yards per completion. The Lobos have numerous big-play threats like Elijah Lilly with his speed. With their help, they can secure enough points for a cover.
Friday night’s betting card offers two games, both of which begin at 9 PM ET. Most would expect Memphis and SMU to be the most competitive of the pair. But New Mexico may surprise people as large dogs against Boise State.
Memphis (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS, 5-4 O/U) at SMU (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS, 5-5 O/U)
Friday, 9 ET (ESPN 2)
NCAAF Pick: Under 72.5
When oddsmakers set a point total that is this high, bettors aren’t actually making an argument for the „over“ when they point out the strong quality of each offense because that quality is already evident in the total. In order to exceed a high total, offenses need to be more than just good. They need to move the ball quickly down the field because, if they move too slowly, they can score almost as often as they want, but they won’t exceed the total because they will lack sufficient opportunity to do so.
Memphis seems like a strong „over“ candidate because their offense is largely predicated on big plays. The „over“ is a huge public play probably because Memphis ranks in the top 20 in both yards per rush and yards per pass completion. The „over“ has hit when Memphis played Georgia State, South Alabama, and East Carolina, each of whose defenses ranks outside the top 100 in ISO PPP+, a statistic that measures how good a defense is at limiting opposing big plays. The „over“ also hit when Memphis played Missouri and its NFL-caliber quarterback and against Tulsa, the last game in which Memphis clinched bowl eligibility and nudged the game total „over“ with a special teams touchdown and a second touchdown following another big special teams play.
Conversely, Memphis went „under“ against Navy and Tulane, each of which had an insane amount of time of possession thanks to its run-first offense, against U Conn, which hardly scored, and against UCF, which ranks 27th in ISO PPP+. SMU ranks four spots behind UCF in the category. SMU doesn’t allow a lot of big plays on the ground. Its pass defense ranks outside the top 100 in opposing pass completion and in the top 50 in opposing yards per completion because it is inclined to play soft coverage in order to keep the ball in front of it and prevent the big play. SMU’s top defender is NFL-caliber cornerback Jordan Wyatt, who matches up well with Memphis’ top receiver Damonte Coxie in terms of height, size, and speed. Wyatt is listed as „questionable,“ though. He was limping a bit after his last game. His undisclosed injury doesn’t seem serious. But, just in case, you may want to check the injury report before placing your bet.
SMU, unlike Memphis, is not a big-play offense, although it is pass-first. It ranks 93rd in yards per completion. Teams generally try to run against Memphis. The Tigers rank 87th in opposing run play percentage. Memphis boasts a solid secondary that ranks top 50 nationally in terms of opposing passer rating and completion percentage against conference opponents. It is led by safety Josh Perry, who had originally committed to Alabama. SMU games have gone „over“ against a then-underrated Michigan offense, Navy’s option attack, and in three games where the Mustangs produced a ton of points. However, Memphis’ Defensive Coordinator Chad Ball has SMU quarterback Ben Hicks figured out. Hicks had his lowest yardage total in each of the last two seasons against Memphis.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="de"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Here is another crazy stat regarding Lobo football as we get ready to take on nationally-ranked Boise State on Friday night...<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/GoLobos?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#GoLobos</a> <a href="https://t.co/O7SJj0VS1L">pic.twitter.com/O7SJj0VS1L</a></p>— New Mexico Football (@UNMLoboFB) <a href=" ">13. November 2018</a></blockquote>
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Boise State (8-2 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) at New Mexico (3-7 SU, 4-6 ATS)
Friday, 9 ET (CBSSN)
NCAAF Pick: New Mexico +20.5
This is a strong spot for the underdog for two reasons. Firstly, this year, the NCAA established a new rule whereby players are allowed to play in four games and still maintain their redshirt. Boise State coach Bryan Harsin announced that he plans to make ample use of this rule against New Mexico. He wants to feature new faces by giving them playing time plus he wants to fill in gaps left by injuries on the defense. The Broncos have four defensive starters on the injury report plus a defensive lineman who had provided depth by frequently rotating into the game. Secondly, Boise State faces ranked Utah State next week in what promises to constitute an exciting climax to the regular season. Favored by nearly three touchdowns against the Lobos, Boise State is apt to look ahead to its next opponent.
Match-up wise, New Mexico will find success through the air. Quarterback Sheriron Jones has faced two defenses within his conference that rank in the top 20 in opposing passer rating and he played awfully against both. But, he faced three defenses that rank outside the top 90 in the category—Colorado State, UNLV, and Air Force, and threw for combined six touchdowns and one interception against those teams. Boise State ranks 97th in the category. The Broncos’ pass defense is vulnerable to conceding big plays. It ranks 96th in opposing yards per completion. The Lobos have numerous big-play threats like Elijah Lilly with his speed. With their help, they can secure enough points for a cover.
