Friday NHL

[smh212]

YTD: 3-1-1 +2.22 units

What's up fellas? I'm back on the ice after a 2 year hiatus. Typically, I would be betting NBA now, but I got really involved with the NFL, and was unprepared for the NBA season. I bet a couple of games, and realized I was too far behind. Given the Flyers are viable this season, I have been watching much more hockey than usual. About a month and a 1/2 ago, I broke out my hockey system and began back-testing it to see if it still held. It did. I then began reading, reading, and reading some more. Last week I placed my first NHL bets of the season, after paper trading for two weeks. Total number of plays are not that great as the numbers are bit tighter these days, but I believe I can turn a profit this year.

CANES +110 (1)
MY line: Canes -110Situational play here, as both teams have been playing good hockey over the past month. San Jose is in the middle of a 5 game road trip, and tonight will be a B2B, 3rd game in 4 nights, with last night going into an extra session and then shootout. Florida was a consideration for me last night, but I held off. Post game comments from San Jose, lead me to believe that the fatigue is now setting in per Logan Couture, "It was one of those games where we really didn't have our legs". So if they didn't really have their legs last night, what can we expect tonight?
Carolina enters off a loss at Ottawa last night. Before that loss the Canes were on a 3-0-2 run, and this team hasn't gone consecutive games without a point since Dec 3. Overall they are riding an 18-6-1 stretch, including going 8-1-3 at home. I like the fact that Ward will be between the pipes tonight, and last nights loss should have them hungry for a win tonight.

GL.

:shake:

 

[Metallica]

GL tonight SMH :cheers3:

 

[tuck321]

Loved the play. Jones if he played would be playing worst 3 in 4 after ot and we are talking about a great b-b team playing one that was 4-5.

 

[scarf31]

Nice hit, SMH...would love to see you post some more hockey...especially as a guys who's a long-time capper around these boards for years.

I think there is a lot of value out there and overall, it may be the most underrated sport to wager on. Do you do any team totals? I've been dabbling in them the last month or so and find there are some pretty decent angles....I know you are more of a constructed formula guy regarding how you build your own lines, but just wanted to pick your brain on the TT concept.

Any insight is appreciated, my friend.

 

[smh212]

Scarf,
Agree that the NHL provides a bit more value night in and night out compared to say the NFL, where the edges run small, and to gain and edge you have to be placing your bets Sunday night for the following week. The same angle applies in all sports, with regards to having your numbers made days in advance. The difference in the NHL compared to NFL and say the NBA is that the volume is lower, so market indicators are typically more accurate, giving the player a better feel for when to place to your bet.

As for TT in the NHL, my system is structured to predict the final score of each game. Inputs consist of each teams probable amount of shots on goal, their goals/shot rate, starting goalies save percentage, etc. I run this over a teams last 10, 5, and 3 games. This generates a baseline score. From here, I work in each teams style of play as it relates to pace, and generate a probability of which team's style of play is likely to prevail. This calculation helps give me a RANGE of goals scored by each side. For example, in the Boston/Columbus game, I had Columbus scoring between 2.75 and 4 goals and Boston scoring between 3 to 4 goals.

FOR SIDES:
Once I have my predicted score, I look at the total. If the total is say 5.5, over -130, I look at my numbers on that game to see who is likely to carry the scoring load for the game if it were to go OVER. I then look at the team totals. If the favorite is sitting at 3.5 goals, -130 and the dog at 2, -110; I make the determination the probability of the favorite scoring 4 goals and compare that to the ML and the teams TT goals. If the ML has the favorite -170 and my numbers say the probability of the favorite scoring 4 goals is greater than 63% (the odds of a team winning at -170), and I like the favorite, I will play the team total OVER if my numbers have the probability that the favorite will score 4 goals is over 56% (win odds for -130). I apply the same formula to determine if laying 1.5 is the best option. If my final score math says 4-1, and the probability says say 56%, and I can get +120 or greater laying the 1.5, then that's the route I will go.

FOR TOTALS:
This area is more centered on a specific team. It comes down to my numbers saying posting a strong probability on goals scored for one team, and a mixed bag for the other. For example, recently, my numbers were stating to bet the OVER TT on whomever Vancouver was playing. The issue was the juice on the "play on" teams total was so high, that it reduced my advantage to where I passed.

These are just two examples of how I incorporate team totals into my handicapping. At the end of the day, TT are excellent indicators into the mindset of the oddsmakers. Our goal as a handicapper is to form an opinion, and then chose the best betting vehicle.

 

[scarf31]

Awesome info, smh. Seriously appreciate the in-depth response as the "science" of handicapping is what I always strive to learn more from knowledgable guys about. Been reading your stuff for years and know you're a formula based capper, but had to pick your brain when I saw you were getting puck posts up...great sport and I absolutely love the hidden value.

We're getting some really solid puck posters and it is awesome to see around these parts. May you have continued success my friend. :cheers3: