Friday NBA

SF_capper

CTG addict
just thought I'd get some thought out there before the lines come out

a suer max play comin, circled game for a while. everyone pro bably knows whiuch game this is
Detroit
Stons off that loss to Boston and have HUGE revenge for NY. Lost by I think 25, I don't remember, but I guarentee you Detroit's had this game circled. They probably care more about this game than they did against Boston, and for good reason, they need to make a statement and it'll happen here. One team in the entire league that you don't want pissed off is the Stons, cuz when they play with swagger and emotion, I'd say they're the best team in the league (after Golden State :) ) This'll be a max play as everything is working well into this game. However, I believe you'll need to grab the first number. I'm guessing this comes out 8.5 and climbs its way to 10+.

warrior thoughts are.. GS will be mad after that loss to Charlotte as we needed to sweep this roadie, but ionno if they still bring their all. GS is money off losses, but imo we'll see an inflated line like 7.5 which may be too much. imo, the better time to play em will be saturday (despite 4th game in 5 nights), it'll be a big revenge from OT. We hastled Dwight last time forcing him into a ton of turnovers (don't wanna look it up, too lazy). we might look ahead to Orlando. Maybe GS 1st H, as we'll likely look to get this one over with to rest up for 2m.

other games...
I'll likely be on Phoenix off a loss at home to road weary Jazz. only fear is a possible lookahead to SA, but I don't think they can afford to (which doesn't mean they won't). Okur will not be able to handle Shaq, although Shaq will not be able to chase Okur down to the 3. maybe an over, but I like the side better. We'll likely under 4, which should be good. A lot of faders likely of Phoenix coming after the loss to Denver, but they need to be aware that this was a tough spot for Phoenix on a b2b at Denver with revenge

Portland will be looking to avoid .500 and begin a pretty long road trip. they dont really have a chance for playoffs, but ionno if they know that. Pryzbilla- "They're good, and it would be big for us to start this trip with a win." James Jones- “We worked hard that second half. We showed some grit. We just have to do it for a full game. That first half, we came out and pretty much laid an egg.” Maybe Portland 1st H.. also with James Jones back, Portland been looking pretty good

eh Philly will win but we'll probably see 10+. Hopefully a nie HT value there

if SA has a tough time with Indi, Denver on Friday might be nice. remember everybody- BET THE UNDER ONCE IT COMES OUT!!! these matchups always produce unders.. think about the matchups. TP and AI- both quick enough to limit each other. Bowen on Melo- limits him. Camby on Duncan. Ginobli can have a big night, but thats it
 
liking the warriors here. They have a mentality that if their longest losing streak should be only by 1 loss. As for miami.... fade them as usual.
 
bulls 1 game out and we still have an april month that we play our best ball in over last few years.

mush!

sleddog.jpg
 
62-35
+78.595 units

locked some in while I was out watching the Mavs choke. at sportsbook.com as friday is -105 day

Denver -1.5 (-105)- 7 units
Phoenix -3.5 (-105)- 7 units
SA/ Denver UNDER 201.5 (-105)- 10 units
 
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and that ATL line is funny. ATL NEEDS this win, and if they can get the 2 against Miami, that'll be huge as well. gonna be

Atlanta ML +?- 10 units
-once a ML comes out of course. Hoping for +120, at least 115

also, Imma be on Detroit in every way possible. maybe a small/med bet on all Qs, max on whole game, undecided about the halves. It'll be a monster play. any1 know whats keeping the line?
 
Phx reasoning?

I still have faith in this Phoenix squad. The line came out as I had hoped (3/4). Its as much of a fade of Utah on the road. These 2 usually duke it out with similiarish motion offenses and high pick and rolls
matchup wise. shaq's dominance over Okur's softness should cancel out Okur's outside shots vs Shaq's slow ass. dunno if they gonna put Shaq on Okur, but Boozer can own him as well. Boozer/DWill and Amare/Nash can go at it all day. Hill on CJ miles is a big starters mismatch. and altho Utah is deeper that hasn't mattered much in the past. overall, I think homecourt will get it done here against weak road utah. also, read on statfox a couple days back, can't find it now, that when 2 teams with winning percentages b/w 60-75% match up in (either March or March and on) the home team has taken ATS at over 80%. If someone wants to look it up, go for it and post here. I think it's like 5-3 this month so far. Just in the past, if Utah won this matchup it was cuz of outtoughening Phoenix. With Shaq in, I don't see it happening
I like Phoenix off the loss still really fighting for not only a playoff spot, but to prove all the critics wrong, esp for all the shit spoken of them after Nugget loss
 
also, for ATL, Charlotte/Jrich off huge emotional win for him. he must've wanted that one against us badddl.y
 
gonna be on Stons big 2m BAR?
Tough man

I'll post qoutes and this that tomorrow...but they basically been on road for 12 days now...they got a few days home...but then had a delayed plane due to weather and back on road...

another triple revenge on tap for Sunday night as well against Bulls...

But...they def want to avange that last trip to the Garden where the schedule caught up to them
 
I may still hedge the Denver bet a bit, but I think I'll get a chance to and get some change with it. Might move some to 1st H

Also, the more I think of both Denver and Phoenix feel more like 5-6 units plays that I added too much. played 7 which isn't much difference, but just so its out there

I hate schedule makers for putting Chicago for Detroit on Sunday
 
Tough man

I'll post qoutes and this that tomorrow...but they basically been on road for 12 days now...they got a few days home...but then had a delayed plane due to weather and back on road...

another triple revenge on tap for Sunday night as well against Bulls...

But...they def want to avange that last trip to the Garden where the schedule caught up to them

any line prediction? Say if Sheed and Randolph play? imo the road factor is not as important because 1) players more often than not bring their game to the garden 2) Detroit after this have shit load of home games where theyll be able to chill anyway. any lookahead to goin home I think goes away, and instead will be more looking to close this long road span in style. I hate the lookahead to Chicago though. Any thoughts on that one BAR?
 
added another 3 units on GS -5 to make it the max 10 units

so the card I'll post before I sleep and likely won't post until much later on in the day
Golden State -5 (-110)- 10 units
Denver -1.5 (-105)- 7 units
Phoenix -3.5 (-105)- 7 units
SA/ Denver UNDER 201.5 (-105)- 10 units
Atlanta ML +?- 10 units
Detroit -?- 10 units
 
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also, if any1 is wondering. My plays are up to 10 units. It's called a max play, but it doesn't really mean like GOY type play, as I'm trying to limit myself and show some discipline from going too big on a single play. since the smallest bet I've posted since keeping this record I believe is 3 units. most will be around 6-7 as imo a good play. a great gets 10 as well as probable other plays connected to that play
 
love under in SA/DEN. ATL. and GS. not sure about denver. they play when they want to.
 
i like the gs play, dont think miami can compete, wade and marion, yes, then what, a day off for gs and their style is good, dont think miami is going to match up with them defensively. dont have the skills or quickness. saw a 4.5 out there,, maybe some love for wade.
 
thanks guys

got ATL at +110 :(
added this one once it came out:
Portland +135- 7 units

also hit these up once I saw em. line fell, then jumped right back
Detroit -8.5 -105- 10 units (SB)
---Detroit -9 +109- 10 units (MB) (couldn't resist)
1st H Detroit -4.5 -105- 10 units (BM)

still waiting on Detroit quarters
no idea wassup with the GS line
 
card so far

Golden State -5 (-110)- 10 units
Denver -1.5 (-105)- 7 units
Phoenix -3.5 (-105)- 7 units
SA/ Denver UNDER 201.5 (-105)- 10 units
Atlanta ML +110- 10 units
Detroit -8.5 -105- 10 units
--Detroit -9 +109- 10 units
1st H Detroit -4.5 -105- 10 units
 
1st Q Detroit -3 - 6 units
2nd Q Detroit -2.5 - 5 units
3rd Q Detroit -3- 5 units
4th Q Detroit -2-5 units

all -110, all from 5dimes just 10 minutes ago
 
eh I'm out everyone. feeling good about today, if I play anything else, i"ll try to post on my iphone, but its kinda slow so I might not post 2nd H plays fast enough. deciding to ride all bets,so heres the card:

Golden State -5 (-110)- 10 units win
Golden State TT OVER 113- 6 units win
--Golden State 1st H TT OVER 57.5- 6 units win
Denver -1.5 (-105)- 7 units

Phoenix -3.5 (-105)- 7 units
SA/ Denver UNDER 201.5 (-105)- 10 units
Atlanta ML +110- 10 units lose
Detroit -8.5 -105- 10 units lose
--Detroit -9 +109- 10 units lose
1st H Detroit -4.5 -105- 10 units lose
1st Q Detroit -3 - 6 units push
2nd Q Detroit -2.5 - 5 units lose

3rd Q Detroit -3- 5 units win
4th Q Detroit -2-5 units lose
Portland +135- 7 units win


fuckin blitzed Detroit. I move lines :)
 
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I'm on bodog, it's at 11 right now. Sucks but Detroit should still be able to cover.

ooh wow. I checked bodog like 15 minutes before I posted, and it had 10 (-110). wow, but agree that 11 should still get it as I seriously see 20 at HT getting blown up further. but still nice to have better numbers in case. you should hop on Bookmaker.com/ they let their overnight lines out around 5 PM EST, and as we approach late march/april, getting early lines can be the difference of even 4 pts.
 
ooh wow. I checked bodog like 15 minutes before I posted, and it had 10 (-110). wow, but agree that 11 should still get it as I seriously see 20 at HT getting blown up further. but still nice to have better numbers in case. you should hop on Bookmaker.com/ they let their overnight lines out around 5 PM EST, and as we approach late march/april, getting early lines can be the difference of even 4 pts.


No doubt, I'm going to be looking for a more favorable book before baseball season.
 
Golden State -5 (-110)- 10 units win
Golden State TT OVER 113- 6 units win
--Golden State 1st H TT OVER 57.5- 6 units win
Denver -1.5 (-105)- 7 units win
Phoenix -3.5 (-105)- 7 units lose
SA/ Denver UNDER 201.5 (-105)- 10 units lose
Atlanta ML +110- 10 units lose
Detroit -8.5 -105- 10 units lose
--Detroit -9 +109- 10 units lose
1st H Detroit -4.5 -105- 10 units
lose
1st Q Detroit -3 - 6 units push
2nd Q Detroit -2.5 - 5 units lose
3rd Q Detroit -3- 5 units win
4th Q Detroit -2-5 units lose
Portland +135- 7 units win

Denver 1st H -1 -105- 8 units lose
Denver -1.5 +100- 10 units win

2nd half stons -5- 10 units lose

day
7-10
-35.8

shit. lost 48 units on Detroit. fuckin Rip, just HAD to get teched out..

69-45
+42.795 units
 
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