SF_capper
CTG addict
Plays:
Indiana -7- 10 units
Orlando -3.5- 6 units
Charlotte -3- 2 units
NYK +5- 2 units
Toronto +3- 4 units
Atlanta +6 (+110)- 2 units
Boston -7- 4 units
2nd H Denver -7.5 (-120)- 2 units
YTD:
21-11
+32.4 units
I’ve said this before, but I don’t think people understand the significance of playoff revenge. A player is sent home with a disappointing loss, and all they can think about in the offseason is the pain they felt, what they coulda/shoulda done to win the game, and watch replays of those losses pointing out almost every play you did wrong. They cannot wait to avenge their loss to inflict the embarrassment they received. Now, some1 made a great point, that it doesn’t truly apply for opening night as every player on every team is hyped for it and possibly did their homework on the other team to try to get the edge. However, besides those, most teams coast and rely on their skill, which is why situational capping is so successful in NBA- many players take breaks and rarely do players bring their ALL always. Example one: Houston</ST1
Rockets. You think TMac’s wonderful night was a coincidence? He was useless last yr in the playoffs against <ST1Orlando, <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
<ST1
utah</st1:State>, and got some redemption yesterday. We have a couple of those instances tonight: <st1:City w:st=" /><st1:City w:st="on">Toronto</st1:City>, and the Lakers
<O</O
<st1:City w:st="on">Detroit +2 @ Orlando</st1:City>
I like this one. Playoff revenge for <ST1<st1:City w:st="on">Orlando</st1:City></ST1. <st1:City w:st="on">Detroit</st1:City> on a b2b after the big win over <ST1<st1:City w:st="on">Miami</st1:City></ST1 last night. Their stock may be a tad higher as they usually inflate TNT winners a bit the net game- although rarely does the 1 pt change really make a difference- its still there. I remember last yr cashing the ticket many times when <st1:City w:st="on">Orlando</st1:City> would play <st1:City w:st="on">Detroit</st1:City>- I would take <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1Detroit</ST1</st1:City>. The matchup was hell for <ST1<st1:City w:st="on">Orlando</st1:City>.. Jameer, Hedo, Hill, and Sheed would pick on Dwight. However, I think this yr will be different. Dwight showed some of his potential against <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1lace Milwaukee</ST1</st1:City>, but I feel it was just a taste for the yr (besides the 7 blox- that monster). Although I feel Rashard is a bit overrated and way overpaid, he is still a step up on both offense and D from last yr. The new offensive system will hurt <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1Detroit</ST1</st1:City> much more, as they tend to crowd the inside a bit more than they should which makes them weak to the kick out. <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1Orlando</ST1</st1:City>’s 3 pt shots will be open and with shooters like Hedo, Rashard, JJ, and Garrity, I’d expect many to go in. I love Sheed, but he cannot guard Dwight Howard. Tough for <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1Detroit</ST1</st1:City>, gotta play Shaq then Dwight on B2B. Ariza should be enough to limit Prince from the kind of night he had tonight. Also, what was <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1Hamilton</ST1</st1:City>’s family emergency? I hate to take it into account, but if it’s a tragedy, I don’t think basketball will be on his mind. Have to see. Dwight should be hungry for revenge. Lean <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1Orlando</ST1</st1:City>
Prediction: Orlando- 98-91
<O</O
<ST1<st1:City w:st="on">Miami</st1:City> +6 @ <st1:State w:st="on">Indiana</st1:State></ST1
Had this one mini circled in hoped J O’neal would play. Its fine either way, just stronger obviously with him in. <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1Miami</ST1</st1:City> cannot guard centers. Yes bold statement for a team with 2 likely Hall of Fame centers, but Shaq when in, cannot guard a low post/ outside shooting/ any decent center. He might be able to put in a couple nice plays here and there, but overall it just puts him in foul trouble and takes him out. Now, with Dade out and Ricky Davis just new into the system, who the hell is gonna control the game on offense for <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1Miami</ST1</st1:City> is Shaq is out? Another major weakness of the <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1Miami</ST1</st1:City> team is their age, which shows against fast teams. Well in comes, up-tempo Indiana who probably still hasn’t gotten enough attention for their home win. <st1:City w:st="on">Miami</st1:City> will be on a B2B off a tough loss (I think) to <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1Detroit</ST1</st1:City> in which Shaq will have to pull the team’s weight or get blown out here. This is a spot I would warrant a 2 game chase on fading <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1Miami</ST1</st1:City>, but I’ll fade them both times. Granger showing his skill last game, and Tinsley showing that he will do great under the new coach. Would like to see Murphy/O’Neal out there, as it is more bodies to throw at Shaq, and Murphy has the outside shot that will take Shaq out. Lean <st1:State w:st="on"><ST1Indiana</ST1</st1:State>
Prediction: Indiana 102- 90
<O</O
<st1:City w:st="on">Toronto</st1:City> +3 @ <st1:State w:st="on">New Jersey</ST1</st1:State>
<ST1Jersey</ST1 impressed me, esp RJeff (besides the chest pounding- haha). <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1Toronto</ST1</st1:City>, also, let Philly back into the game which wasn’t impressive. This one says sucker on it. Jersey just beat <st1:City w:st="on">Chicago</st1:City> with the same spread who is better than <st1:City w:st="on">Toronto</st1:City>, and <st1:City w:st="on">Toronto</st1:City> barely covered against <ST1<st1:City w:st="on">Philadelphia</st1:City></ST1? But wait, look at that NJ game. NJ did play well, but <st1:City w:st="on">Chicago</st1:City> is notoriously bad on the road, whereas <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1Toronto</ST1</st1:City> is alright. <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1Chicago</ST1</st1:City>’s greatest weakness is a lack of an inside threat, which also happens to be NJ’s weakness on defense. Nenad is not as good a defender as <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1Moore</ST1</st1:City>. Philly’s inside defense (evans and dalembert) is pretty formidable and was tough for Bosh and Bargnini, but I think the two have a fun time 2m. Kidd, although one of the best PG defenders, is a step (or 3) slower than before, while TJ is a flash. Calderon will probably struggle a bit with Kidd on him, but I don’t think TJ will as much. Anthony Parker is a pretty dam good defender, a Graham ain’t bad himself. Overall, I think the playoff revenge comes in for this whole team. Both of these teams are underrated, but leaning <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1Toronto</ST1</st1:City>
Prediction: <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1Toronto</ST1</st1:City>: 100- 96
<O</O
Lakers +10 @ <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1Phoenix</ST1</st1:City>
<O</O
Another playoff revneg, but this one is scary. I do like though that <st1:City w:st="on">Phoenix</st1:City> was fuckin ugly tonight at <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1Seattle</ST1</st1:City>. They were given an easy spot and you’d expect them to start their season right, but they did just enough to win- not pretty. Now, comes LA. I really dislike the Lakers chances this season, but yet I’ll likely bet them two games in a row- tonight being the second. <st1:City w:st="on">Kobe</st1:City> looked fierce against <st1:City w:st="on">Houston</st1:City>, and if I remember, Lakers bigs usually get it down pretty well against <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1Phoenix</ST1</st1:City>. <st1:City w:st="on">Kobe</st1:City> is a hungry player, I don’t like him, but I think we got our question answered –(how does <ST1<st1:City w:st="on">kobe</st1:City></ST1 react to the trade talk? Determined/lazy?) He is determined to fuck the world. I’m sure he hates himself for those missed free throws that probably lost the game for them at home. Overall, if Durant can get 27, what can Kobe do? Overall, I expect a close game. Lean Lakers and kinda under
Prediction: Phoenix 105-102
Indiana -7- 10 units
Orlando -3.5- 6 units
Charlotte -3- 2 units
NYK +5- 2 units
Toronto +3- 4 units
Atlanta +6 (+110)- 2 units
Boston -7- 4 units
2nd H Denver -7.5 (-120)- 2 units
YTD:
21-11
+32.4 units
I’ve said this before, but I don’t think people understand the significance of playoff revenge. A player is sent home with a disappointing loss, and all they can think about in the offseason is the pain they felt, what they coulda/shoulda done to win the game, and watch replays of those losses pointing out almost every play you did wrong. They cannot wait to avenge their loss to inflict the embarrassment they received. Now, some1 made a great point, that it doesn’t truly apply for opening night as every player on every team is hyped for it and possibly did their homework on the other team to try to get the edge. However, besides those, most teams coast and rely on their skill, which is why situational capping is so successful in NBA- many players take breaks and rarely do players bring their ALL always. Example one: Houston</ST1
Rockets. You think TMac’s wonderful night was a coincidence? He was useless last yr in the playoffs against <ST1Orlando, <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
<O
</O<st1:City w:st="on">Detroit +2 @ Orlando</st1:City>
I like this one. Playoff revenge for <ST1
<st1:City w:st="on">Orlando</st1:City></ST1. <st1:City w:st="on">Detroit</st1:City> on a b2b after the big win over <ST1<st1:City w:st="on">Miami</st1:City></ST1 last night. Their stock may be a tad higher as they usually inflate TNT winners a bit the net game- although rarely does the 1 pt change really make a difference- its still there. I remember last yr cashing the ticket many times when <st1:City w:st="on">Orlando</st1:City> would play <st1:City w:st="on">Detroit</st1:City>- I would take <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1Detroit</ST1</st1:City>. The matchup was hell for <ST1<st1:City w:st="on">Orlando</st1:City>.. Jameer, Hedo, Hill, and Sheed would pick on Dwight. However, I think this yr will be different. Dwight showed some of his potential against <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1lace Milwaukee</ST1</st1:City>, but I feel it was just a taste for the yr (besides the 7 blox- that monster). Although I feel Rashard is a bit overrated and way overpaid, he is still a step up on both offense and D from last yr. The new offensive system will hurt <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1Detroit</ST1</st1:City> much more, as they tend to crowd the inside a bit more than they should which makes them weak to the kick out. <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1Orlando</ST1</st1:City>’s 3 pt shots will be open and with shooters like Hedo, Rashard, JJ, and Garrity, I’d expect many to go in. I love Sheed, but he cannot guard Dwight Howard. Tough for <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1Detroit</ST1</st1:City>, gotta play Shaq then Dwight on B2B. Ariza should be enough to limit Prince from the kind of night he had tonight. Also, what was <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1Hamilton</ST1</st1:City>’s family emergency? I hate to take it into account, but if it’s a tragedy, I don’t think basketball will be on his mind. Have to see. Dwight should be hungry for revenge. Lean <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1Orlando</ST1</st1:City>Prediction: Orlando- 98-91
<O
</O<ST1
<st1:City w:st="on">Miami</st1:City> +6 @ <st1:State w:st="on">Indiana</st1:State></ST1Had this one mini circled in hoped J O’neal would play. Its fine either way, just stronger obviously with him in. <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1
Miami</ST1</st1:City> cannot guard centers. Yes bold statement for a team with 2 likely Hall of Fame centers, but Shaq when in, cannot guard a low post/ outside shooting/ any decent center. He might be able to put in a couple nice plays here and there, but overall it just puts him in foul trouble and takes him out. Now, with Dade out and Ricky Davis just new into the system, who the hell is gonna control the game on offense for <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1Miami</ST1</st1:City> is Shaq is out? Another major weakness of the <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1Miami</ST1</st1:City> team is their age, which shows against fast teams. Well in comes, up-tempo Indiana who probably still hasn’t gotten enough attention for their home win. <st1:City w:st="on">Miami</st1:City> will be on a B2B off a tough loss (I think) to <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1Detroit</ST1</st1:City> in which Shaq will have to pull the team’s weight or get blown out here. This is a spot I would warrant a 2 game chase on fading <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1Miami</ST1</st1:City>, but I’ll fade them both times. Granger showing his skill last game, and Tinsley showing that he will do great under the new coach. Would like to see Murphy/O’Neal out there, as it is more bodies to throw at Shaq, and Murphy has the outside shot that will take Shaq out. Lean <st1:State w:st="on"><ST1Indiana</ST1</st1:State>Prediction: Indiana 102- 90
<O
</O<st1:City w:st="on">Toronto</st1:City> +3 @ <st1:State w:st="on">New Jersey</ST1
</st1:State><ST1
Jersey</ST1 impressed me, esp RJeff (besides the chest pounding- haha). <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1Toronto</ST1</st1:City>, also, let Philly back into the game which wasn’t impressive. This one says sucker on it. Jersey just beat <st1:City w:st="on">Chicago</st1:City> with the same spread who is better than <st1:City w:st="on">Toronto</st1:City>, and <st1:City w:st="on">Toronto</st1:City> barely covered against <ST1<st1:City w:st="on">Philadelphia</st1:City></ST1? But wait, look at that NJ game. NJ did play well, but <st1:City w:st="on">Chicago</st1:City> is notoriously bad on the road, whereas <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1Toronto</ST1</st1:City> is alright. <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1Chicago</ST1</st1:City>’s greatest weakness is a lack of an inside threat, which also happens to be NJ’s weakness on defense. Nenad is not as good a defender as <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1Moore</ST1</st1:City>. Philly’s inside defense (evans and dalembert) is pretty formidable and was tough for Bosh and Bargnini, but I think the two have a fun time 2m. Kidd, although one of the best PG defenders, is a step (or 3) slower than before, while TJ is a flash. Calderon will probably struggle a bit with Kidd on him, but I don’t think TJ will as much. Anthony Parker is a pretty dam good defender, a Graham ain’t bad himself. Overall, I think the playoff revenge comes in for this whole team. Both of these teams are underrated, but leaning <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1Toronto</ST1</st1:City>Prediction: <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1
Toronto</ST1</st1:City>: 100- 96<O
</OLakers +10 @ <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1
Phoenix</ST1</st1:City><O
</OAnother playoff revneg, but this one is scary. I do like though that <st1:City w:st="on">Phoenix</st1:City> was fuckin ugly tonight at <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1
Seattle</ST1</st1:City>. They were given an easy spot and you’d expect them to start their season right, but they did just enough to win- not pretty. Now, comes LA. I really dislike the Lakers chances this season, but yet I’ll likely bet them two games in a row- tonight being the second. <st1:City w:st="on">Kobe</st1:City> looked fierce against <st1:City w:st="on">Houston</st1:City>, and if I remember, Lakers bigs usually get it down pretty well against <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1Phoenix</ST1</st1:City>. <st1:City w:st="on">Kobe</st1:City> is a hungry player, I don’t like him, but I think we got our question answered –(how does <ST1<st1:City w:st="on">kobe</st1:City></ST1 react to the trade talk? Determined/lazy?) He is determined to fuck the world. I’m sure he hates himself for those missed free throws that probably lost the game for them at home. Overall, if Durant can get 27, what can Kobe do? Overall, I expect a close game. Lean Lakers and kinda underPrediction: Phoenix 105-102
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