Friday NBA Thoughts

S

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
Large Card...However we might have a growing bunch of teams/games in the NBA that might just be better till wait till halftime with or pass on ...

Early Leans:
Kings +2 & und 196
Warriors -9.5
Philly +5.5
NYK +12
Atlanta +8
New Orleans +5
Under 204.5 Cleveland
Tor +2 & Under 197
Wiz -6.5 & Ov 210.5
Over 197 -105 Charlotte
 
Early Leans:
Kings +2 & und 196
Warriors -9.5
Philly +5.5
NYK +12
Atlanta +8
New Orleans +5 A game I'd rather stay away from. Nobody plays for the Hornets anymore.
Under 204.5 Cleveland Might be a spot for Cleveland as well? -4 possibly
Tor +2 & Under 197 Bulls have won 18 straight against these guys??? Probably get +3??
Wiz -6.5 & Ov 210.5 You guys have balls to bet an over on a Magic game this high. I'd play the 1st half over before the game. Like the Wiz.
Over 197 -105 Charlotte

Lots of similar thoughts just glancing at the card.
 
Well it goes like this so far...

The Kings own the series and are the better team IMO....with GS obvious how bad Boston has been shorthanded....now way Philly should be this big a dog to Portland and Sixers have revenge...like NY a little cause of the spot not much else though...off a huge OT win traveling to play a team who lost at the buzzer.....look at the egg NY threw up in Philly ..shouldnt fade elite teams off SU losses...no rush to talk ATL but I cant lay points with HOu either ...yeah would grab NO if that line wnet higher DEN has no one...AI and Boykins...dressed 8 tonite and struggled at home vs Sea...would only play Cle if the line dropped to about -3 they stink lately but tall order win 3 straightg away in 4 days....raps almost ended the streak last game , Deng is wuestionable and CHi on the road is scary.... Not so sure about needing balls there D has lackedlately , Turk is back , Wiz have revenge ....looking for it drop under 210 though....

Actually that Charlotte Over is probably one of the plays that stands out loudest...Bobcats have adjusted to life w/o Knight...100+ last 3 at home without him...Bos , Utah ( he played 18 minutes) and Wash....
 
I like the Under in LA. Got a strong feeling that game is gonna be scrappy, scrappy, scrappy.

Also like the CLE Under, and I think Denver could win their first game without topping 100 pts this season, in NOR
 
I'm actually a fan of Felton as far as the Bobcats play goes. Only problem with him is that he seems to be inconsistent. I'm sure that has to do with looking over his shoulder all the time. I actually expect him to play well tonight as he should have confidence of knowing it's his team at least for a month. A good month will equal a starting nod most likely and a trade for Knight.
 
JPicks said:
I'm actually a fan of Felton as far as the Bobcats play goes. Only problem with him is that he seems to be inconsistent. I'm sure that has to do with looking over his shoulder all the time. I actually expect him to play well tonight as he should have confidence of knowing it's his team at least for a month. A good month will equal a starting nod most likely and a trade for Knight.
Click to expand...

knowing Knight's situation I definetly think benefits the team . Instead of alway sthinking maybe he will be back soon...
 
Ya that's one I didn't highlight but 196 is definitely higher than expected. Looking forward to Magette against Artest. That should be funny to watch.
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
I like the Under in LA. Got a strong feeling that game is gonna be scrappy, scrappy, scrappy.

Also like the CLE Under, and I think Denver could win their first game without topping 100 pts this season, in NOR
Click to expand...

if the game is scrappy it would certainly break the trend of recent CHA home games. Can Wallace cover Kobe? End of trip dont see D as a priority..
 
SportsNut said:
if the game is scrappy it would certainly break the trend of recent CHA home games. Can Wallace cover Kobe? End of trip dont see D as a priority..
Click to expand...

Think he's talking about the Clippers/Kings game.
 
Interested to see the Indy/Det line...Stons off of a loss to NYK and revenge playing at home...could be a good under situation too


Agree on Sac/LAC Under as well...
 
Leaning towards ATL/HOU O177 - TMac and JJ should combine for at least 65 points between them. Without Yao it should be an up-tempo pace.
 
We will ll take it up in the A.M. my brain is fried...Rip was pissed about that loss and revenge makes great incentive...hopefully O'Neal plays...and the Hawks game the only thing that scares me is JJ is slumping a bit and Mac less then 100%...okay bedtime!
 
why the under with Milw? that should have ahppened 2 nights ago, minjus the 12 points in the last minute of play including 4 foul shots when there was a 20 point lead. but anyway. Milwaukee has to know the way for them to win is to run people off the court, that being said cleveland's defense is no good and why wouldn't the y play the up-tempo game. especially if they will be down by 15 most of the game, donyell marshall will probably attempt 15 3pointers himself for cleveland, neither team defends the three well, i see lebron getting caught up in the run and gun.
 
I wanna pull the trigger on the Stons, but 7 might be to high....I think O'neal is out....

Also, Raps look enticing as home dogs, but I don't like backing this team without Bosh....

As far as totals go, I think Phx goes Over and LAC Under....I honestly don't like too much here tonight....
 
I am actually a bit trigger shy on the Suns Over. I actually see the Suns wining this comfortably...15-20 points...I just don't think NYK can keep up. I realize Suns are on a b2b, but they lost to Dallas due to horrible turnovers and Dallas continually kept slowing the game down. I think they come out focused at home.
 
Feeling a little under the weather today so gonna be a slow day for me...well slow posting day for me....

Really not all that interested in NY v Pho at the moment. Being a NYer I have seen since that Utah game how the fans @ MSG have rallied around this team. Sounds corny but having the Garden rocking is definetly something that can help a shorthanded team 'rally'. Looking at fundamentals NY simply lacks the knowledge of how to play the game and I'll say alot of the guys are young. They allowed two good teams in Utah and Det to hit clutch 3 's to force OT. So I feel they can wilt at anytime just on silly errors. I would hate to play PHO after a SU loss but I do think nY can hang around if Marbury plays like he has recently. As well as Crawford who heated up sometime in the overtime periods. Right now both side and total seems to be a coin flip and truthfully NY has had 1 road contest since the brawl and what happened?

I like Tor catching points here and with O'Neal Doubtful 7 is bargain but you can get cheaper
 
Beanbag said:
why the under with Milw? that should have ahppened 2 nights ago, minjus the 12 points in the last minute of play including 4 foul shots when there was a 20 point lead. but anyway. Milwaukee has to know the way for them to win is to run people off the court, that being said cleveland's defense is no good and why wouldn't the y play the up-tempo game. especially if they will be down by 15 most of the game, donyell marshall will probably attempt 15 3pointers himself for cleveland, neither team defends the three well, i see lebron getting caught up in the run and gun.
Click to expand...

Actually in some ways thats part of it...it shoudl have happened last game and the streak lasted one more day.. I wont say Clevelands defense is good but allowing 90 pts per at home and holding 5 of the last 6 teams to les then 87 is solid enough.The last 3 meeting vs Cle think Bucks scored something like 88.86.84 clearly different teams but we have alot of wiggle room befoe we get both teams in the 100's...its been 5 straight where Bucks have failed to crack 90 in Milw...

I dont think I would classify either as good or bad shooting the three or defending it...to me they would be say neutral...Milw avsg 33% and Cle 36% while defending at 34% and 36%...Cavs dont shot FTs well and neitherteam gets to the line much...we all know what Bucks do on offense...Milw has struggled in Cle so I wont be suprised to the streak end here both win streak and 7 game over streak...

Playing 3rd in 4th away is tough for milw and I would expect about 95 pts here this isnt Memphis...BOL alot of guess work involved...
 
So here is what I am looking at:

Over 197 -110 Lakers :

basically we have LA at the end of trip and they havent allowed less then 93 pts in game. On 1 day rest the LA offense seems to work best avg nearly 103 pts. Charlotte has allowed 100 or more in 7 of the past 10 games and 49% shooting last 5. However the offense even minus knight and may at times has scored 99,100,101 and 107 last 4 at home.

Sean May went through an intense shooting workout before Wednesday's game and appears to be close to returning from his sprained right ankle, according to the AP. May has been out since suffering the injury on Dec 16.

Raps +3.5 -110 & Und 198.5:

I know all about Chicagos win streak over Toronto. It almost ended last meeting and with Chi road issues you can imaginw why I think tonite could be the nite. Especially with Toronto on a little streak now. Not going to get crazy about the total but I dont really see Tor as up tempo team still. Follishly I played the Under vs Minny so I will be cautious here but I dont see the winner above 100...

Upon further review I have no opinion on Washington vs Orlando. I though Was had value but no feel this line should be about -4.5 . So not wanting to fade Wash this is probably the spot to do so. Especially with Turkoglu returning. Still could be interested in an over since Orl has allowed 106 and 117 at home recently..makes me comfortable with expecting Wiz to creep above 110..

With Milw @ Cle ....Bucks +5 & Under 204.5

The under is 9-1 past 10 meetings in Cle and Cavs under 38-13 last 51 vs Central. Fav is 14-2-1 last 17 meetings though. Basically Mil is hot but if the betting public still doesnt believe in them I will ride them again....As I said earlier Milw has failed to crack 90 in 5 prior meetings in Cle and Cavs have held 5 of 6 to 87 or less...if Cavs are to win they know how they must play.......

With Det especially if O'Neal is out the Pistons look very attractive at -7...

The only things that I have IN :

is Philly....@ +5 & New Orleans @ +4 ...& ML's..
 
Thanks DJ....same to you..hate that rundown feeling!

You have to love the commentator jinxing the SOUTH CAR FG...he has never missed insid e45 yds...lines up for a 33yder...wide right...


Feel free to make comments or ask questions just feel like shit and dont feel like spending 2 hours writing down every thought..

Totals
Over 197 -108 Charlotte
Over 210.5 -101 Orlando
Under 199 +100 Chi ( the way its running up I will probably pass)
Under 204.5 -111 Mil
Under 195.5 -101 Sac

Sides
Magic +6 -105 (ML +225)
Raptors +3 +103 (ML +145)
Pistons -6.5 -110 (Played)
Hornets +4 -110 (Played) ML +160 ?
Philly +5 -108 (Played) ML +170?
Warriors -9.5 -104
Sac +3 +101 ( ML +146)
 
Player Props:(3-0 +5.00)

Michael Redd Under 27 -103 (2units)

-On the road avgs 26.9 and 27.1 on 1 days rest , 25.6 in Dec

Last 4 @ Cle 18 ,32 ,26,23

He always tends to struggle versus Cle from the floor and many times Hughes has not even played. Basically think this is a game that MILW will struggle in playing 3rd in 4 nites away.....

Over 14 -101 Jameer Nelson (1unit) Win +1.00

Just expect a high scoring game here. He will be going at Arenas and everyone who plays against Gilbert needs to 'keep up'. He had 22 and 15 in recent higher scoring games...we have seen felton get 22 , Miller 27 and Nash 42 in recent games..

Over 10.5 -116 DeShawn Stevenson (2units) Win +2.00

Probably some extra incentive against his former mates. I think Stevenson has picked up his play lately and off a 7 point game he should kinda bounce back so to speak. He has not had consecutive games under 10 points since 11/15 and 11/17.

Over 19.5 -124 Antwan Jamison (2units) Win +2.00

This month Jamison's lowest total in 6 home games is 19. He had 29 earlier vs Orlando down there. He had 21 , 30 ,25 and 23 last year vs Orlando.
 
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good luck tonight sportsnut, i just wanted to wish you a fast recovery from being a bit under the weather.

cheers......:cheers:
 
does anyone know if ray allen is a go tonight for sea, and is jermaine oneal a scratch or will he try playing with the flu.
 
Totals (doing alot of line shopping )

Over 197 -102 Charlotte (4units)

Over 210 -110 Orlando (3units)

Under 199 -105 Chi (1unit)

Under 204.5 -111 Mil (2units)

Under 195.5 -101 Sac (Artest status?)

Over 195 -109 Minnesota (3units) new addition

Under 185.5 -110 Portland (2units) new

Sides

Magic +7 -106 (2units) ML +265 (1/4unit) didnt like the line move

Raptors +3.5 +100 (2units) ML +145(1/2unit)didnt like line move

Pistons -6.5 -110 (3units)

Hornets +4 -110 (5units) ML +160 (1/2unit)

Philly +5 -108 (4units) ML +170 (1/2unit)

Warriors -9.5 -107 (2units)

Sac +3 -101 ( ML +146) Waiting on some info for Sac..

basically everything that has a size next to it is IN , except the Orl side and Tor.<!-- / message -->
 
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O'Neal is probable and Allen traveled to Minny.

O`Neal (flu-like symptoms) is probable for tonight's game. He did not play against Houston. The 6-11 O'Neal leads the Pacers in scoring (18.7 ppg) and rebounding (10.2 rpg).

12/29: Ray Allen is expected to rejoin the Sonics Friday, the Seattle Times reports. Allen stayed in Seattle as his fiancee, Shannon, gave birth to their second son Wednesday afternoon.
 
Team Totals:

Over 100.5 -108 Lakers (1u)
Over 102 -108 Orl (1u)
Over 108.5 -108 Wash (2u)
Over 97.5 -119 Tor(1u)
Under 99.5 -108 Cle(1u) its Und Milw not Cle ...Cavs had to about 104.5
Over 101.5 -108 Minny(1u)
Over 92.5 -108 Hous (2u)
 
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1st Quarters : (4-3 +3.86)

Bobcats +130 ML (1u) Loss -1.00
Over 53.5 -111 Wash (2u) Win +2.00
Cavs -1.5 -112 (2u) Win +2.00
Det -2 -116 (2u) Win +2.00
Ov 48 +105 Det (1u) Win +1.05
Over 49 -119 Minny(1u)Loss -1.19{6 of 11 Fts and 48 pts!}
Hornets ML +122 (1u) Loss -1.00
Over 55.5 -119 Pho (1u)
 
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Play List:

Totals

Over 197 -102 Charlotte (4units)
Over 210 -110 Orlando (3units)
Under 199 -105 Chi (PASS)
Under 204.5 -111 Mil (2units)
Under 195.5 -101 Sac (Artest status?)
Over 195 -109 Minnesota (3units) new addition
Under 185.5 -110 Portland (2units) new

Sides

Magic +7 -101 (2units) ML +265 (1/4unit) didnt like the line move
Raptors +4 -110 (2units) ML +145(1/2unit)didnt like line move
Pistons -6.5 -110 (3units)
Hornets +4 -110 (5units) ML +160 (1/2unit)
Philly +5 -108 (4units) ML +170 (1/2unit)
Warriors -9.5 -107 (2units)
Sac +3 -101 ( ML +146) Waiting on some info for Sac..
 
Was staring at the Turkoglu PROP and never pulled the trigger think it was 10.5 or 11 he had 14 in the 1st Q!
 
1st Half: 9(1-3 -2.21)

Pistons -3.5 -113(1u) -1.13 f'n collapse
Over 98 -112 Minny (1u) L (95) -1.12
Over 103.5 +104 NO (1u) Win +1.04
New Orleans ML +135 (1u) l -1.00
 
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Nut - I am on a lot of the plays you have as well...hopefully its not a bad thing.....Lakers Over is lookin real good right now....
 
Austintx_05 said:
Nut - I am on a lot of the plays you have as well...hopefully its not a bad thing.....Lakers Over is lookin real good right now....
Click to expand...

Well Good Luck to us then....yeah 60 up at the half is pretty nice on a 197 total...
 
Second Half:

Bulls +0.5 -110 (1u)
Under 101 -114 Tor(1u)
Was fearful of the Tor game in general so I 'll pray the 2nd Q is a true indicator of how thisgame plays out....maybe the total is a sucker play but I guess I will bite...

Hedge : Magic -6 -116 (1u)

Add:
Over 93 -117 Indiana (2u)
 
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So Detroit doesn't care about revenge I see.....how do you let the pacers run on you like this....
 
Austintx_05 said:
So Detroit doesn't care about revenge I see.....how do you let the pacers run on you like this....
Click to expand...

All that matters is the final score. Though I have 1st Q and 1st H as well...I got so much shit going on Yahoo Sports i smy best friend...
 
SportsNut said:
Your a really good jinx....
Click to expand...

You know I thought this site was founded on the principle of not bashing people, yet I get bashed here....:down:
 
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