Friday NBA- Situational Handicapping

K

Killa

To the left, to the left, to the right to the righ
'05/'06 NBA Record ATS: 122-95 (56%)
'06/'07 NBA Record ATS: 78-59 (57%)

Fucks +7 (-120 @ Greek)
This is what situational betting is all about. Toronto's stock is at an all-time high right now. They just went on a 3-game trip spanning from North Carolina to Texas. They finished with a romp of Houston. 24 hours after this game, they go BACK on the road for a showdown at Cleveland. This is the definition of a sandwich game, a home game vs. the lowly Bucks whom they have already beaten twice this season. No motivation here for Toronto. Sandwich between two mini road trips involving games vs. multiple playoff teams. Milwaukee has my boy Redd back and they got some mojo right now. They're defending well and they're back to their high-scoring ways. I love Mo Williams BTW, awesome player under the radar. Upset here wouldn't surprise me in the least.

P.S. There's an added bonus to this play, considering the team I am fading. Those who know me well will know what I mean.

:smiley_acbe:
 
BTW, Parker won't play and there's whispers on the other site of Barnani being out too.
 
I looked at this line a bit ago and knew immediately what the play was. This line has been adjusted somewhat against us IMO. Toronto play as of late dictates say an 8. This is Milwaukee's game to win. Huge revenge against CLE coming up. Sandwich indeed. Love it.
 
I grabbed the 6.5 a bit ago.

Only two other potential plays I like. We'll see. Both games OTB board right now.

Note to cappers: Rasheed is game time decsion tomorrow in Miami.
 
Knew you would. And you're dead right about this line being shaded against us. This has been happening all year. Last season we would get that 8 here. But oh well, just means that my boy will definitely be on the chalk, hehe.
 
Like it as well. Great spot would be an understatement. Might entertain the over as well. GL Killa.
 
LOL-I put 3 units on it. Feels pretty strong.

Waiting out the Spurs-Magic line.

Interested in what Miami-Detroit opens at.

Nothing else on card sticks out.
 
Glad to hear JP.

Ahhh, a BAR/Killa collabo on this one..... We got this shit baby
 
Parker is out and Bargnani is out (will miss 2 games for illness in family). Humphries should get most of Barg's playing time. No way he drops 16 pts and goes 7-7 from the field again. No one really left to guard Redd. Mo-P has been playing to his defensive abilities this year. So that leaves us with Juan Dixon at the 2.

I think I'll take the +6.5. Also CV hasnt forgotten about the betrayal of the Raptors management. You are one of the building blocks....yada yada and BC ships out at the first available moment.
 
t-dot said:
Parker is out and Bargnani is out (will miss 2 games for illness in family). Humphries should get most of Barg's playing time. No way he drops 16 pts and goes 7-7 from the field again. No one really left to guard Redd. Mo-P has been playing to his defensive abilities this year. So that leaves us with Juan Dixon at the 2.

I think I'll take the +6.5. Also CV hasnt forgotten about the betrayal of the Raptors management. You are one of the building blocks....yada yada and BC ships out at the first available moment.
Click to expand...

Excellent point.
 
Not to sure there defending well, or just having opponets get cold. Either way i think if Bogut and Skinner shut down Bosh they'll cover. Also its a big game for Villaneuva, who yes, is playing.
 
lovin this gane as well. likin Memphis as well.. Philly off their superbowl. Also, SA might be worth a look. Every1 remembers last game
 
San Antonio is an excellent play when line comes out. Ivy loves it so BDK hates it ;)

I personally like it too.
 
Do you guys think I should wait for a better line? I'm using sportsbook.com and right now they have Grizzlies +6 (-115) and Bucks +6.5 (-115). Public will be all over Toronto. Enough to move line to 7, or at least (-110) juice?
 
rook.,.I grabbed the 6.5 -110 early...but may regret..still 6.5 at bookmaker right now...but you may want to wait...IMO

GL
 
First post in CTG.

All points presented is valid. This might be a good spot to fade Toronto after the big win at Houston. Still waiting to get a better line. Current line at my local bookie is Mil+6.

Good luck on your plays tonight gentlemen!!!
 
Line down to 5 now. I understand the idea of the Raptors coming out flat, but I'm wondering what if any motivation is there for the Bucks to show up tonight? They're out of the playoff race, they've won a couple in a row at home to get the coaches and fans off their backs. Now they're out of town with no pressure, I'm fearful of them mailing this one in.
 
Bargnani was supposed to leave for Italy last night, but b/c of the snow he is IN tonight......yes, line to 5 as well.

Heat the play tonight? +4 right now.
 
Killa,
I just read that the Bucks didn't get in until today because of the storm and they missed shootaround. does that make you nervous at all? Also, even if Bargnani plays, his mind may be elsewhere
 
Pepsiman said:
Killa,
I just read that the Bucks didn't get in until today because of the storm and they missed shootaround. does that make you nervous at all? Also, even if Bargnani plays, his mind may be elsewhere
Click to expand...

Yes, that makes me nervous, not so much cuz of actually not shooting around but because it fucks up their usual routine.

And with Bargnani, who the fuck knows? I was hoping he'd be out but no dice.
 
LOL...
Curse of the Killa has moved to pregame happenings and occurences!!!!!
 
10-4, thanks Killa. I am going to hold off but I will watch the game and root for all who have already been fucked by the snow!!! I am here in VT AGAIN!! Sick of this shoveling crap
 
An absolute stellar call Killa.
Great Work!!!!
Don't know if you have noticed it but Fridays seem to be your highest winning % night.
I wonder if there is something to it or just mere anamoly????
 
PooPooStinks said:
An absolute stellar call Killa.
Great Work!!!!
Don't know if you have noticed it but Fridays seem to be your highest winning % night.
I wonder if there is something to it or just mere anamoly????
Click to expand...

are you seriously saying you've tracked his plays day by day and calculated shit?

LMAO, get a girl!
 
billivy said:
are you seriously saying you've tracked his plays day by day and calculated shit?

LMAO, get a girl!
Click to expand...


FWIW,
I'm married with a 4.5 year old son.
Don't bash Austin over in BAR's thread and then start this shit.
I complimented you tonight too.
 
PooPooStinks said:
FWIW,
I'm married with a 4.5 year old son.
Don't bash Austin over in BAR's thread and then start this shit.
I complimented you tonight too.
Click to expand...

Exactly...bill is sippin that hypocrite juice tonight LOL!

Anyways, good shit on Milk today Killa...glad we both cashed :drink:
 
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