Friday MLB-

tee*dub

tee*dub

Head of Loggerhead Turtle Society
wk of 7/28, 7-5, (+1395)

wk of 8/4, 8-2, (+9400)

wk of 8/11, 5-1, (+7941)

Total last couple weeks; 20-8, (+18,736)


__________________________________________________

Hit my only play yesterday. Correct on 13 of last 16 plays. Most small chalk or dogs so pretty good run going.

Circled this play last week and it sets up even better than I hoped:

Cubs -135, 4 units WIN

Add

Cardinals -110, 2 units.. WIN


________________________________________________________
Zambrano's last start

<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=colhead align=right><TD align=left>DATE</TD><TD align=left>OPP</TD><TD align=left>RESULT</TD><TD>IP</TD><TD>H</TD><TD>R</TD><TD>ER</TD><TD>HR</TD><TD>BB</TD><TD>SO</TD><TD>GB</TD><TD>FB</TD><TD>TBF</TD><TD>#Pit</TD><TD>Dec.</TD><TD>Rel.</TD><TD>ERA</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left>8/9</TD><TD align=left>STL</TD><TD align=left>L 3-12</TD><TD>4.1</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>24</TD><TD>88</TD><TD>L(12-5)</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>3.22</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Play on. I have the stats on this but quick summary is --Zambrano is lights out in starts after he gives up more than 7 ERs. In 4 of the last 5 occasions he has given up 2 ERs or less with a couple shutouts sprinkled in. He is a competitor of large proportions and does not like to be embarrased. He was embarrassed in his last start and said immediately after the game "I can't wait until my next start".. His career is full of these instances. I.E. Lose focus get bombed, regain focus and nearly unhittable.

Plus we catch a Marlins offense in a funk. They got shut out yesterday and scored only 10 runs in the four game series with the Cardinals.

A pissed off Zambrano is the last guy they want to see toeing. I do think the Marlins shake out of the offense lapse in this series, but not tonight.

I like Josh Johnson but he still is inexperienced and he still walks too many. Show me you can do it against this line-up kid.

I will add to this card as I really like several games.

Leans/sides I am looking at:

LAD
Stl

Quick notes on Cards which I will add to later:

Carpenter scratched from this start and Larussa had really two fill in options. RHP Brad Thompson or rookie LHP Jamie Garcia.. Lets see- Reds are 21-23 against LHP and 32-45 against RHP.. Easy choice, Thompson gets his fourth start of the year.In his 3 previous starts he has given up only 5 ERs in 15+ innings.

Wellenmeyers deep start yesterday made this a possible play today because for Stl this is essentially a bullpen game and all the key components are now rested. Expect 5 efficient innings from Thompson then the GOOD part of the Card BP.

Cinncy has lost 6 straight at home and STl is an NL best 35-28 on the road. :4_12_13:

At a pick this is a likely play. Arroyo has been better of late so still debating. Waiting on preliminary lineup info.
 
Last edited:
you have been on a nice streak my man... keep it rollin'! :cheers:
 
FL is my team and hate to go against them but these bats have just been awful lately. JJ has been pitching great but the Cubs could only get 1 off of him and still win. Think I will be on this as well. GL
 
Does Arroyo's L2 starts concern you?
Click to expand...

Bronson is 4-5 3.93 ERA in 14 career starts vs StL, but is 1-0 2.25 ERA this season. 2H and 0 ER in 6 IP against StL on June 12 is scary, but I think Cincy was playing ball as a team in mid-June. Cincy is playing for nothing now while StL is 3 or 4 games back of Milwaukee in the NL wild card race.

Thompson concerns me more than Arroyo. I don't know if I can pull the trigger on this game with Thompson replacing Carp.

Arroyo won't go deep, so I understand your call of this being a bullpen game. StL owns a good road record, add that to the motivation to catch Milwaukee in the wild card race, and it might make my cut for a play.
 
Blue_Chip said:
Bronson is 4-5 3.93 ERA in 14 career starts vs StL, but is 1-0 2.25 ERA this season. 2H and 0 ER in 6 IP against StL on June 12 is scary, but I think Cincy was playing ball as a team in mid-June. Cincy is playing for nothing now while StL is 3 or 4 games back of Milwaukee in the NL wild card race.

Thompson concerns me more than Arroyo. I don't know if I can pull the trigger on this game with Thompson replacing Carp.

Arroyo won't go deep, so I understand your call of this being a bullpen game. StL owns a good road record, add that to the motivation to catch Milwaukee in the wild card race, and it might make my cut for a play.
Click to expand...

The middle of the Cards lineup has hit Arroyo pretty good in limited PAs. Ankiel hitting .400 with a couple bombs, Ludwick .357... Seems like Arroyo pitches better to the little guys than the big guys IMO and his numbers vs cardinals show it.. Probably talking myself on it.. My intial reaction was to be concerned with Arroyo.. Have to check lineups.

Ankiel with day of rest will most definately play. Add Glaus, Ludwick, Pujols probably Schumacher off a day of rest also, Molina..

Probably ought to consider over also.
 
The Cards vs reds series price is at a pick.

digesting that one.

Funny how far the Reds have fallen.. If you have told me at the beginning of the year that the matchup was

Stl -- Thompson, Pineiro, Lohse

vs.

Cinncy-- Arroyo, Harang, Volquez


and the Reds are at home, I would have thought the Reds would have a chance to sweep.
 
Good Luck Tee. Seeing how FLA handled the bats last series and for weeks in general have to love the spot with Big Z off one of his worst starts ever playing a SP who has to yet to record a loss...:cheers:
 
Blue_Chip said:
sit today out... no need to force a bet
Click to expand...

I've lost a lot of money at this and I've made a ton. It took several years to learn and the tuition was expensive but with out exception the times I went on great runs- I was very selective.. Agree with Blue Chip. Don't force it..

I talk myself off of multiple games everyday.. Only when I can't talk myself off it, do I play it.. Works for me FWIW..

Having said that, there are guys on here that do very well playing nearly every game.. Just never worked for me..

couldn't talk myself off the cubs today btw;)

:cheers:
 
On the other side here Tee. In short, I'm counting on Florida to shake off getting thumped by your boys and get to Z here.

Z has the tendency to have a few bad starts, usually at this time of year as well. He had a horrid one last time and now facing a team that has a lot of solid bats in the lineup.

No Aramis Ramirez tonight as well. Josh Johnson keeps the Fish in the game here if you ask me and I like the plus money on the home dog.

We'll see how it pans out, one of us will be a happy camper. GL :cheers:
 
Cardinals lineup

Schumacher
Ludwick
Pujols
Ankiel
Glaus
Felipe Lopez (playing 2B, love this move)
Larue
Pitcher
Izturis

Playing it..

Add

Cardinals -110, 2 units..
 
congrats on the Cubs :shake:


bad beat for me but it was a first one in 10 days so I can handle it.
 
Have to admit.. Totally miscapped Cub game but got the reverse :moose:

:36_19_2:

money;money;:hammer:
 
I capped it well I think, counted on Z to suck again and to issue his trademark (when he's in his suck mode) couple of walks + HBPs or similar shit, but then Darryl Ward launches what, his third homer of the season and it's a three run homer? :D

But hey, it's all part of the game, people think it all has to be clean and one sided and sports isn't like that.

I just hope Philly and LAD come in for me to salvage the day.


:shake:
 
tee*dub said:
Have to admit.. Totally miscapped Cub game
Click to expand...

<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=colhead align=right><TD align=left>Pitchers</TD><TD>IP</TD><TD> H</TD><TD> R</TD><TD>ER</TD><TD>BB</TD><TD>SO</TD><TD>HR</TD><TD noWrap>PC-ST</TD><TD>ERA</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left>C Zambrano</TD><TD>6.0</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>1</TD><TD noWrap>120-63</TD><TD>3.38</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Ya know, that is a strange outing. Did not watch the game but not a horrible line, sans the walks. 4 hits 6 innings with 6 k's, not bad.. Lucky win. If someone watched the game please add color on how Zam looked.
 
Satyr said:
I capped it well I think, counted on Z to suck again and to issue his trademark (when he's in his suck mode) couple of walks + HBPs or similar shit, but then Darryl Ward launches what, his third homer of the season and it's a three run homer? :D

But hey, it's all part of the game, people think it all has to be clean and one sided and sports isn't like that.

I just hope Philly and LAD come in for me to salvage the day.


:shake:
Click to expand...

Like philly esp and somewhat LAD.. Hope you hit both.:cheers:
 
I watched it

He did not look good. Plenty of dislocated pitches, poor control, a lot of pitches to jam out of situations and this is a trigger happy team we're talking about, they strike out A LOT.

They do hit their share of homers but this is not a patient team, he had five walks in 6 IP

This was his worst inning of course.

Josh Johnson: Ball, Ball, Ball, Johnson walked.
Hanley Ramirez: Ball, Ball, Strike looking, Ball, Foul, Foul, Ramirez walked, Johnson to second.
Jeremy Hermida: Hermida struck out bunting foul.
Jorge Cantu: Strike looking, Ball, Foul, Ball, Cantu homered to left center, Johnson and Ramirez scored.
Mike Jacobs: Ball, Ball, Jacobs lined out to second.
Dan Uggla: Ball, Foul, Ball, Strike swinging, Ball, Uggla walked.
Josh Willingham: Ball, Strike swinging, Willingham tripled to center, Uggla scored.
Cody Ross: Strike looking, Ball, Strike looking, Ball, Ross struck out swinging.

He walked Josh Johnson then threw some meatballs down the stretch, Soto called him in to talk but he continued with poor pitching.

As I said you either get torched against Florida since they launch a lot of homers or you get free ride K's.

He got both, but somehow put his shit together later on and they were even more impatient later on probably thinking that's gonna be enough to beat them

This kind of approach makes Florida not a great team, but the Phillies are in that category as well and the Mets are a hit or miss team, so Florida is in the game for postseason.


If you ask me the key was Chad Gaudin who completely cooled them off, two 1-2-3 innings and the Cubs got what they needed top 9th


A very tough loss for me but I'll live, went 8-1 in last two days and this had to happen sooner or later.
 
Satyr said:
I watched it

He did not look good. Plenty of dislocated pitches, poor control, a lot of pitches to jam out of situations and this is a trigger happy team we're talking about, they strike out A LOT.

They do hit their share of homers but this is not a patient team, he had five walks in 6 IP

This was his worst inning of course.

Josh Johnson: Ball, Ball, Ball, Johnson walked.
Hanley Ramirez: Ball, Ball, Strike looking, Ball, Foul, Foul, Ramirez walked, Johnson to second.
Jeremy Hermida: Hermida struck out bunting foul.
Jorge Cantu: Strike looking, Ball, Foul, Ball, Cantu homered to left center, Johnson and Ramirez scored.
Mike Jacobs: Ball, Ball, Jacobs lined out to second.
Dan Uggla: Ball, Foul, Ball, Strike swinging, Ball, Uggla walked.
Josh Willingham: Ball, Strike swinging, Willingham tripled to center, Uggla scored.
Cody Ross: Strike looking, Ball, Strike looking, Ball, Ross struck out swinging.

He walked Josh Johnson then threw some meatballs down the stretch, Soto called him in to talk but he continued with poor pitching.

As I said you either get torched against Florida since they launch a lot of homers or you get free ride K's.

He got both, but somehow put his shit together later on and they were even more impatient later on probably thinking that's gonna be enough to beat them

This kind of approach makes Florida not a great team, but the Phillies are in that category as well and the Mets are a hit or miss team, so Florida is in the game for postseason.


If you ask me the key was Chad Gaudin who completely cooled them off, two 1-2-3 innings and the Cubs got what they needed top 9th


A very tough loss for me but I'll live, went 8-1 in last two days and this had to happen sooner or later.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the color on the game.. Have to wonder now how Florida responds tommorow.. Lean them but lots to look at.

Hows your year in baseball going? You are a very good capper. Always pay attn to your posts.:shake::cheers:
 
I'm on path to 110% ROI (actually a little above that atm) which is my goal every season, every sport

+120 units so far (5 units = average play, 10 units = max play), I'm happy, especially after a turbulent 07 season

:shake:

I'm tailing you for NFL closely this year, since I don't cap football. ;)
 
Satyr said:
I'm tailing you for NFL closely this year, since I don't cap football. ;)
Click to expand...

Can't wait for NFL. A couple really bad teams out there to fade out of the gate.. STL and Miami.. Like both season win totals under .. Working up a write-up.. Actually wonder how Miami will win a single game. Spent a couple days last week watching them in training camp. Pennington did not complete a pass for more than 20 minutes.. May hit them large on the under.. See you around bro..
 
You know what, I don't even know what to say any more at this point other than :bow:.

YOU ARE THE MAN!!!

:smiley_acbe:
 
Mags said:
You know what, I don't even know what to say any more at this point other than :bow:.

YOU ARE THE MAN!!!

:smiley_acbe:
Click to expand...

Nailed the Cardinal game but got lucky on the Cub win. Sometimes the dealer hits your 14 with a 7.. Appreciate the comment Mags but runs eventually end.. 15 of last 18 .. Hopefully keep it going awhile. Couple decent ones on tap tommorow:cheers:

Patiently waiting for NFL:smiley_acbe:
 
tee*dub said:
Nailed the Cardinal game but got lucky on the Cub win. Sometimes the dealer hits your 14 with a 7.. Appreciate the comment Mags but runs eventually end.. 15 of last 18 .. Hopefully keep it going awhile. Couple decent ones on tap tommorow:cheers:

Patiently waiting for NFL:smiley_acbe:
Click to expand...
Hey man, that's what it's all about, when you're capping games right luck tends to be on your side. I totally tailed ya on The Cubs because of two things 1) completely respect your capping regardless of streaks and 2) I know what it's like to be on these runs and you have to ride it out as long as possible because you are right, it will eventually come to an end. The great news is that I have been tailing you and playing my strongest play in addition to that (see my earlier post saying that I liked Minny ALOT) and it's been a real nice run. Additionally, I'm right at 70% in NFLX. Keep doing what you're doing bro, like I said yesterday, I speak for the crowd when I say that we appreciate you sharing the knowledge and success! See you around tomorrow...about 7 too many BlueMoons in me at this point! :cheers:
:popcorn:
 
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