Daily Upset Alert: MLB Moneyline Underdog Picks
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds
7:10 p.m. ET at Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati
Kyle Hendricks vs Reds Batters
Chicago starter Kyle Hendricks' numbers against the Reds are only as poor as they are because he often gets to face them in Wrigley Field, his home ballpark, where the Reds lineup is very far removed from its strongest potential.
In Cincinnati, though, Hendricks suffers nearly as heavily as in any other ballpark. He’s even much worse in Cincinnati, for example, than in baseball’s most hitters-friendly ballpark (Coors Field in Denver).
So in Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati, Hendricks is 2-4 with a monstrous 6.57 ERA in nine career starts.
It is thus largely due to Hendricks’ appearances in Cincinnati that several Reds batters have so solid numbers when facing Hendricks.
They certainly benefit from experience and familiarity. Being in the same division as the Cubs, Red batters have seen plenty of „The Professor.“
In 177 total at-bats, active Cincy hitters have accumulated a .282 BA and .458 slugging rate.
Eight different Red batters have a BA of over .270 against Hendricks and six are slugging over .500 against him.
Watch out, in particular, for Freddy Galvis. He is 5-for-15 (.333) in his career when facing Hendricks. Of his five hits, three were doubles.
Tyler Mahle
It is true that Cincy starter Tyler Mahle already pitched against the Cubs. In his season opener, he yielded an ERA over 4.00 when the Cubs visited Great American Ballpark.
However, you have to take a deeper statistical dive to see that he actually performed very well.
In this game, Mahle induced more soft contact by percentage than in any other game. He also did a superb job of keeping the ball on the ground, inducing ground balls at a 53 percent rate.
He simply had, statistically speaking, luck. „Luck“ may sound like lame reasoning. But I mean this word in a statistical sense.
Mahle yielded a .462 BABIP (batting average of balls in play) which is clearly very high. It is tremendously higher than one would expect given the rate at which Mahle induced soft contact.
Hence, Mahle’s FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) was 1.90 against the Cubs, which is excellent.
Mahle is therefore salivating to face the Cubs again, especially at home, where all of Mahle’s great starts this year have taken place.
The Verdict
I like to focus on both starting pitchers. For the above reasons, take the Reds on the first-half moneyline with your MLB Picks.
Best Bet: Reds First-Half Moneyline at +125 odds with BetOnline
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers
8:10 p.m. ET at Miller Park in Milwaukee
Milwaukee’s Hitting Woes
I can’t imagine why Milwaukee would be favored so heavily.
It’s true that oddsmakers won’t account for special circumstances. Considering what happened in Wisconsin and the players’ reactions to it, it’s very reasonable to assume that the Brewers will play distracted today.
But even if the Brewers weren’t distracted, how could a team that ranks 29th in runs per game ever be favored so heavily?
From the beginning of the season, something has been off with Milwaukee’s lineup. Perhaps that is the reason why Lorenzo Cain decided to opt-out.
Cain is one of Milwaukee’s top hitters in terms of batting average. So his loss is essential. For today, his loss is essential because it takes away a much needed right-hand bat from Milwaukee’s lineup.
Milwaukee is rather lefty-heavy. Its best hitter, for example, is Christian Yelich, who is left-handed.
The Brewers’ lack of quality right-handed bats makes it a tough match-up for Pittsburgh southpaw Derek Holland.
As a lefty, Holland has benefited from facing the Brewers. Active Milwaukee batters hit .224 and slug .388 against Holland.
So expect little from Yelich himself. Yelich has been a massive disappointment this season and he likely won’t improve today as he’s only 1-for-14 (.071) lifetime when facing Holland.
Corbin Burnes vs Pittsburgh Batters
Milwaukee’s rotation has seen a lot of movement via transactions and a lot of disarray in recent times.
One pitcher who has had to step up is Corbin Burnes.
Burnes is uniquely salivating for Pittsburgh’s lineup.
Currently, active Pirates own a .298 BA against Burnes.
Six different Pirate hitters are batting .333 or higher against him.
The Verdict
Milwaukee’s lack of offense makes it a favorable team to bet against when it is favored.
Pittsburgh has already proven its ability to hit Burnes well. So the Pirates will score enough wins to achieve the significant upset.
I am less willing to invest in Pittsburgh in a bullpen contest with Milwaukee, though. So I will stick to a first-half play.
Best Bet: Pirates First-Five ML (+170) with 5Dimes
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds
7:10 p.m. ET at Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati
Kyle Hendricks vs Reds Batters
Chicago starter Kyle Hendricks' numbers against the Reds are only as poor as they are because he often gets to face them in Wrigley Field, his home ballpark, where the Reds lineup is very far removed from its strongest potential.
In Cincinnati, though, Hendricks suffers nearly as heavily as in any other ballpark. He’s even much worse in Cincinnati, for example, than in baseball’s most hitters-friendly ballpark (Coors Field in Denver).
So in Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati, Hendricks is 2-4 with a monstrous 6.57 ERA in nine career starts.
It is thus largely due to Hendricks’ appearances in Cincinnati that several Reds batters have so solid numbers when facing Hendricks.
They certainly benefit from experience and familiarity. Being in the same division as the Cubs, Red batters have seen plenty of „The Professor.“
In 177 total at-bats, active Cincy hitters have accumulated a .282 BA and .458 slugging rate.
Eight different Red batters have a BA of over .270 against Hendricks and six are slugging over .500 against him.
Watch out, in particular, for Freddy Galvis. He is 5-for-15 (.333) in his career when facing Hendricks. Of his five hits, three were doubles.
Tyler Mahle
It is true that Cincy starter Tyler Mahle already pitched against the Cubs. In his season opener, he yielded an ERA over 4.00 when the Cubs visited Great American Ballpark.
However, you have to take a deeper statistical dive to see that he actually performed very well.
In this game, Mahle induced more soft contact by percentage than in any other game. He also did a superb job of keeping the ball on the ground, inducing ground balls at a 53 percent rate.
He simply had, statistically speaking, luck. „Luck“ may sound like lame reasoning. But I mean this word in a statistical sense.
Mahle yielded a .462 BABIP (batting average of balls in play) which is clearly very high. It is tremendously higher than one would expect given the rate at which Mahle induced soft contact.
Hence, Mahle’s FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) was 1.90 against the Cubs, which is excellent.
Mahle is therefore salivating to face the Cubs again, especially at home, where all of Mahle’s great starts this year have taken place.
The Verdict
I like to focus on both starting pitchers. For the above reasons, take the Reds on the first-half moneyline with your MLB Picks.
Best Bet: Reds First-Half Moneyline at +125 odds with BetOnline
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers
8:10 p.m. ET at Miller Park in Milwaukee
Milwaukee’s Hitting Woes
I can’t imagine why Milwaukee would be favored so heavily.
It’s true that oddsmakers won’t account for special circumstances. Considering what happened in Wisconsin and the players’ reactions to it, it’s very reasonable to assume that the Brewers will play distracted today.
But even if the Brewers weren’t distracted, how could a team that ranks 29th in runs per game ever be favored so heavily?
From the beginning of the season, something has been off with Milwaukee’s lineup. Perhaps that is the reason why Lorenzo Cain decided to opt-out.
Cain is one of Milwaukee’s top hitters in terms of batting average. So his loss is essential. For today, his loss is essential because it takes away a much needed right-hand bat from Milwaukee’s lineup.
Milwaukee is rather lefty-heavy. Its best hitter, for example, is Christian Yelich, who is left-handed.
The Brewers’ lack of quality right-handed bats makes it a tough match-up for Pittsburgh southpaw Derek Holland.
As a lefty, Holland has benefited from facing the Brewers. Active Milwaukee batters hit .224 and slug .388 against Holland.
So expect little from Yelich himself. Yelich has been a massive disappointment this season and he likely won’t improve today as he’s only 1-for-14 (.071) lifetime when facing Holland.
Corbin Burnes vs Pittsburgh Batters
Milwaukee’s rotation has seen a lot of movement via transactions and a lot of disarray in recent times.
One pitcher who has had to step up is Corbin Burnes.
Burnes is uniquely salivating for Pittsburgh’s lineup.
Currently, active Pirates own a .298 BA against Burnes.
Six different Pirate hitters are batting .333 or higher against him.
The Verdict
Milwaukee’s lack of offense makes it a favorable team to bet against when it is favored.
Pittsburgh has already proven its ability to hit Burnes well. So the Pirates will score enough wins to achieve the significant upset.
I am less willing to invest in Pittsburgh in a bullpen contest with Milwaukee, though. So I will stick to a first-half play.
Best Bet: Pirates First-Five ML (+170) with 5Dimes
). if it wasnt for lefties with sub par stuff and lineups like brewers desperate for something gyroko would have been out the league long ago. lol.
