Friday MLB Total!!!!!!!!!!

[hile75]

Over/Unders 57-22-3
Favs (-140 or less) 29-12
Doggies 8-7
R/L 4-4

Had to sweat yesterdays a lill, but it cashed....Lets hope todays is easier.

Detroit/Seattle UNDER 9

Lets start with this number.....Since 2005, the O/U tally is 7-12-1 to the UNDER......Bonderman has been awesome this year.....9-1 record with a mid 3 ERA....Also boasts an over 4-1 K to walk ratio. In his last 3 starts, hes 1-1 but has a 1.57 ERA witha 1.22 WHIP. Washburn, on the other hand, not a huge strikeout pitcher, but hes control has really been spot on this year. Only has an 8-6 record, but very similar stats to Bonderman, minus the K's......Also, Bonderman has only allowed 7 HR's this year, number kinda impresses me for being halfway done the season. I still thinkn Detriot wins this, but I really think Seattle struggles to score the runs tonite....4-2 Detroit.

BOL tonite everyone

 

[Ray]

GL Hile

 

[Blue_Chip]

i'm still pondering: dea/sea under or kc/cle over

 

[AgainstThePublic]

GL Hile. I'm with ya.

 

[Santacapper]

I am this close (pinches fingers together) to playing this too Hile. Here's my sticking points right now. For as good as Bonderman has pitched, the Tigers just score for him (L3 notwithstanding), and for everybody for that matter really. His road starts average over 12 runs a game, and the over is 5-2 in those road starts, 10-5 in his starts on the year. He has 2 straight unders, but coming off 10 straight over starts.

Washburn has great #'s vs the Tigers, 4 straight unders and is 50% o.u at 8-8 this season. Close to 10 runs at home a game is a bit of a scare for me the way I cap too. Add in the way the Tigers hit lefties at over .300 for the year.

Like I said, this close, but these are the reasons keeping me off this game right now.

GL tonight

 

[Man on Fire]

If Seattle plays Sexson tonight they won't score much. Twice he killed RISP chances last night.

 

[hile75]

santa, i ALWAYS LOVE when u come into my threads....always play the devils advocate and u bring the discussion around full circle....good stats u put up.....

Santa, I just want you to consider the starting pitching he faced in those last 5 road starts, in no particular order.......Jon Lieber, Jeremy Sowers, Casey Fossum, Mike Bacsik, and Kelvim Escobar.....

Lets be honest here.....If u took those 5 and made a starting rotation out of them, youd be in worse shape then the Nationals........Of course the game was going over in those matchups, none of those pitchers, except maybe Escobar, should be described in the same sentence as Washburn

 

[Santacapper]

Like I said, not saying its a bad play and Im still 'this close' but there are a few flags for me.

Those are absolutely the pros of the play with regards to Tigers run support, no doubt... In the same token

lefites faced recently (last 6 starters faced)

Gabbard - 3 hits over 6 IP 2 ER (under)
Sabathia - 10 hits over 4 IP with 7 ER (over)
Johan - 5 hits over 6 IP 1 ER (over)
C. james - 5 hits over 5 IP 4 ER (under)
Bascik - 6 hits over 5 IP 3 ER (over)
Chico - 9 hits over 4 IP 8 ER (over)

Last 3 obviously nothing to write home about, but knocing around CC raises a flag for me when I went through the card last night.

O 15-7-1 facing lefty starters this year
O 14-3-1 last 18 vs lefty starters
O 8-2-1 last 11 road vs lefty

"this close":smiley_acbe:

 

[Satyr]

Good luck Hile. Not sure if I like the play myself really, but I'll root for you. You're the man btw, forget what I'm saying .

GL :shake:

 

[MusicCityGambler]

hile-I just wanted to say that I love your picks.:tiphat: Right now the game is available on bodog at 8.5 runs(EVEN). Should I still make this my play?

 

[hile75]

id still make it.....id play it down to 8

 

[GrandPa]

If it's good enough for hile75%, it should be good enough for me ( and anyone else)

 

[RSMS9999]

looks like good stuff, I am on the tigers and agree almost 100% with your first write up. Unfortunately I also missed the number at 9. That being said I think there is a nice possibility for the Tigers offense to go off tonight. Party because of the flukey loss yesterday but mostly just based on stats.

Tigers are absolutely terrific vs. lefties.
Washburn has a history of being a struggling home pitcher and this year, despite the cavernous Safeco field, his ERA is 1.2 worse at home.

That being said you take out the day starts and he is 7-2 with a 2.59 ERA, very impressive numbers.

I love the play, I wish I could have gotten 9.

 

[reNew Orleans]

GL with the pick Hile

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Seattle scoring 5 ERs off 6 Bonderman innings earlier this season is enough of a red flag for me but then I can only get 8.5.

BOL hile

 

[Fondybadger]

I capped the game for an under as well tonight Hile, but I have a gut feeling one of the pitchers is going to get rocked tonight and stayed off, wasn't too far off from laying the under 9, but at the time it was juiced at -120 and is at -125 now...

 

[GrandPa]

When a bad night is a PUSH, you know you are rolling. Hile 75% is the man!