MLB Daily Picks: Totals, Run Line, and Moneyline
Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers
1:10 p.m. at Comerica Park, in Detroit
Matt Boyd vs Twins Batters
It’s easy to look at Detroit starter Matt Boyd’s surface numbers (0-4, 8.48 ERA) and decide to reject any possibility that he pitches well today.
As a season progresses, though, it becomes less plausible to draw conclusions about a pitcher by looking at his ERA.
Boyd’s ERA reflects his entire season. But a deeper statistical dive shows that Boyd is pitching very well lately.
To show what I mean, I need to explain xFIP. FIP is like ERA, but factors out fielding. xFIP is like FIP, but adjusts for league average ratio between fly balls and home runs.
xFIP is a predictively solid metric and one that does a great job of explaining a pitcher’s individual performance. Boyd’s xFIP was under 3.00 in both of his last games.
To paint the picture differently, Boyd’s stuff is great. He’s striking out over 10 batters per nine innings. He is simply allowing many home runs.
xFIP is a successful metric because it recognizes that the total of home runs given up is subject to a lot of variance.
Boyd should not be giving up a lot of home runs. He generates a lot of soft contact and his accuracy has been very promising. His three most frequent pitch locations by percentage are along a border of the zone.
All of this is to say that there is nothing wrong with Boyd.
Since there’s nothing wrong with Boyd, we can appreciate the fact that he has very strong numbers against Minnesota batters.
In 177 at-bats against Boyd, Twin batters have accumulated a .226 BA.
For me to even consider favoring a lineup, I generally want to see more than a few batters who hit Boyd well. Minnesota has one (Marwin Gonzalez). One guy is not going to do anything by himself.
Expect poor efforts, in turn, from players like Eddie Rosario. He is hitting .222 when facing Boyd with as many strikeouts as hits (eight).
Randy Dobnak vs Tigers Batters
Minnesota starter Randy Dobnak (5-1, 1.78 ERA) has been a model of consistency this season, allowing two earned runs or fewer in every game.
He yields a .125 BA against active Tiger batters. Certainly, Detroit batters have only accumulated 16 at-bats against Dobnak.
So while this last statistic isn’t telling by itself, its validity is substantiated by the fact that Tiger batters rank below-average in slugging against Dobnak’s favorite pitches, the slider and sinker.
Best Bet: First-Half Under (odds TBA)
Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox
8:10 p.m. ET at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago
Danny Duffy vs White Sox Batters
The key thing to know for Danny Duffy is that he is a southpaw.
His being a southpaw explains why several active White Sox batters have such strong numbers against him.
Adam Engel, for example is 7-for-15 (.467) with a double and three triples against him.
Jose Abreu also hits him well while bringing in more power into his bat.
As a team, the White Sox match up better than Duffy than they ever have before because they are dominating left-handed pitchers.
Right now, they own the MLB’s best BA (.312) against southpaws, meaning that Duffy could hardly face a less desirable match-up.
One might counter and say that, well, Duffy also has good numbers. Why bet on the White Sox for their good numbers while ignoring Duffy’s?
My answer is that Duffy has benefitted from facing easier match-ups. He just pitched three times in a row against the Twins.
The Twins, though, rank 13th in BA against lefties, over 60 points lower than Chicago’s.
Reynaldo Lopez vs Royals Batters
Reynaldo Lopez has always been a salivating match-up for the Royals. While Lopez favors velocity and his fastball, the Royals excel at hitting Lopez’s favorite pitch.
Right now, the Royals rank seventh in slugging .523 against the fastball from righties.
In 137 at-bats, they own a .336 BA and .613 slugging rate against Lopez.
So look out for Jorge Soler, for example, who is an absurd 11-for-17 (.647) against Lopez with three doubles and three homers.
Whit Merrifield, also, should be solid. He is 12-for-34 (.353) lifetime when facing Lopez.
Full-Game
I typically like to go first-five. But in this game, we get two very vulnerable bullpens. Kansas City’s ranks fourth-to-last in ERA while Chicago’s is barely above average.
Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-115) with 5Dimes
Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers
1:10 p.m. at Comerica Park, in Detroit
Matt Boyd vs Twins Batters
It’s easy to look at Detroit starter Matt Boyd’s surface numbers (0-4, 8.48 ERA) and decide to reject any possibility that he pitches well today.
As a season progresses, though, it becomes less plausible to draw conclusions about a pitcher by looking at his ERA.
Boyd’s ERA reflects his entire season. But a deeper statistical dive shows that Boyd is pitching very well lately.
To show what I mean, I need to explain xFIP. FIP is like ERA, but factors out fielding. xFIP is like FIP, but adjusts for league average ratio between fly balls and home runs.
xFIP is a predictively solid metric and one that does a great job of explaining a pitcher’s individual performance. Boyd’s xFIP was under 3.00 in both of his last games.
To paint the picture differently, Boyd’s stuff is great. He’s striking out over 10 batters per nine innings. He is simply allowing many home runs.
xFIP is a successful metric because it recognizes that the total of home runs given up is subject to a lot of variance.
Boyd should not be giving up a lot of home runs. He generates a lot of soft contact and his accuracy has been very promising. His three most frequent pitch locations by percentage are along a border of the zone.
All of this is to say that there is nothing wrong with Boyd.
Since there’s nothing wrong with Boyd, we can appreciate the fact that he has very strong numbers against Minnesota batters.
In 177 at-bats against Boyd, Twin batters have accumulated a .226 BA.
For me to even consider favoring a lineup, I generally want to see more than a few batters who hit Boyd well. Minnesota has one (Marwin Gonzalez). One guy is not going to do anything by himself.
Expect poor efforts, in turn, from players like Eddie Rosario. He is hitting .222 when facing Boyd with as many strikeouts as hits (eight).
Randy Dobnak vs Tigers Batters
Minnesota starter Randy Dobnak (5-1, 1.78 ERA) has been a model of consistency this season, allowing two earned runs or fewer in every game.
He yields a .125 BA against active Tiger batters. Certainly, Detroit batters have only accumulated 16 at-bats against Dobnak.
So while this last statistic isn’t telling by itself, its validity is substantiated by the fact that Tiger batters rank below-average in slugging against Dobnak’s favorite pitches, the slider and sinker.
Best Bet: First-Half Under (odds TBA)
Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox
8:10 p.m. ET at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago
Danny Duffy vs White Sox Batters
The key thing to know for Danny Duffy is that he is a southpaw.
His being a southpaw explains why several active White Sox batters have such strong numbers against him.
Adam Engel, for example is 7-for-15 (.467) with a double and three triples against him.
Jose Abreu also hits him well while bringing in more power into his bat.
As a team, the White Sox match up better than Duffy than they ever have before because they are dominating left-handed pitchers.
Right now, they own the MLB’s best BA (.312) against southpaws, meaning that Duffy could hardly face a less desirable match-up.
One might counter and say that, well, Duffy also has good numbers. Why bet on the White Sox for their good numbers while ignoring Duffy’s?
My answer is that Duffy has benefitted from facing easier match-ups. He just pitched three times in a row against the Twins.
The Twins, though, rank 13th in BA against lefties, over 60 points lower than Chicago’s.
Reynaldo Lopez vs Royals Batters
Reynaldo Lopez has always been a salivating match-up for the Royals. While Lopez favors velocity and his fastball, the Royals excel at hitting Lopez’s favorite pitch.
Right now, the Royals rank seventh in slugging .523 against the fastball from righties.
In 137 at-bats, they own a .336 BA and .613 slugging rate against Lopez.
So look out for Jorge Soler, for example, who is an absurd 11-for-17 (.647) against Lopez with three doubles and three homers.
Whit Merrifield, also, should be solid. He is 12-for-34 (.353) lifetime when facing Lopez.
Full-Game
I typically like to go first-five. But in this game, we get two very vulnerable bullpens. Kansas City’s ranks fourth-to-last in ERA while Chicago’s is barely above average.
Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-115) with 5Dimes
