Friday MLB (6/29)

[reNew Orleans]

April: 91-69-3 +29.126 Units
May: 112-109-1 +17.898 Units
June: 72-64-2 +33.908 Units

Overall: 274-243-6 +80.932 Units
Sides: 156-142 +47.348 Units
Run Lines: 18-47 -35.922 Units
Totals: 100-54-6 +69.506 Units

0-1 -4.28 Units yesterday. 19 base runners left on for the Tigers, 9 for the Rangers. Tigers could've made a huge impression in the 1st inning as they had a man on 1st and 3rd w/ 0 outs but FC out at home and then GIDP. They never found their stroke when it counted.


Early Games:

New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies OVER 10 -107 (El Duque v. J.D. "The Real Deal" Durbin) (2 Units) & -106 (.5 Unit) W

To start things off, I found this looking for information on JD Durbin.

Outlook: Updated Jun. 29: Phillies purchased the contract of RHP J.D. Durbin from Triple-A Ottawa. "The Real Deal" will get a start in Friday's doubleheader and then likely return to Triple-A to make room for J.A. Happ on Saturday.

LOL, he must be something special to be dubbed that title. Anyways I don't trust this line, its so fishy to me. I would be pounding the Mets but it's dropped? I have no idea whats with it so I figure the Phils will keep on hitting, the Mets bats will start to hit again today off "The Real Deal", the Phils bullpen will keep giving up runs and It'll go over 10 even though thats a large #.

Milwaukee Brewers +124 (Gallardo v. Hill) L
I'll back the Brewers vs. a LHP. They are only 3-5 on the road vs LHP while they dominant at home. Gallardo is going to be moved to the pen after this start so I'm sure he's going to pitch to his best ability to make sure he leaves an impression on the organization. It's a loaded rotation when Cappy returns but I'm sure he's deserving of a spot.

BOL to Yall Friday :cheers:

 

[Blue_Chip]

el duque is an under sp, but the phils bring an aaa-pitcher versus the mets? i might join you

 

[Blue_Chip]

Anyways I don't trust this line, its so fishy to me. I would be pounding the Mets but it's dropped? I have no idea whats with it

there is almost $50,000 being offered for nym -135... very fishy

 

[shakes]

Durbin had a .2 inning relief appearance back in April in Colorado, and gave up 7 hits and 7 runs, walking 1 while K'ing 1. Take that away, and his career numbers are 7.1 IP, 12 hits, 6 runs, 6 walks, 6 Ks. Yeesh.

This guy was a 2nd round pick, and did pitch in the Futures game back in 2003.

 

[Troutman]

GL Buddy,

But this game goes under I think.

 

[shakes]

Hmm, line has been moving up on bookmaker. -150 now.

 

[reNew Orleans]

el duque is an under sp, but the phils bring an aaa-pitcher versus the mets? i might join you

yea el duque kind of worries me and the Mets don't give much run support for him but I am counting on the Mets bats to do some damage today.

Mets 6-2 O/U last 8 road games
Phils 9-1 O/U last 10
Phils 16-5-1 O/U after a W

Plenty of under trends though. I just think the line is kinda fishy, something strange will happen this game, not going completely by the stats today.

 

[El Mago]

gl renew..

love your posts..

i think the jays and rangers are great underdogs today
what dou think

 

[reNew Orleans]

thanks trout - may the best man win haha

shakes - some bad stats, not much experience but hes been around in the minors for a while and hasn't even much worked his way in anywhere so he can't be very good. futures or no futures game haha. still -139 on pinny so not much movement from what I see, was -137 or so. Matchbook sitting steady too.

 

[reNew Orleans]

gl renew..

love your posts..

i think the jays and rangers are great underdogs today
what dou think

just looking at the names of the pitchers favored, definite value. I'll look into these a bit later. But off the top of my head Washburn hasn't been pithing very well lately and Wakefield I am not postive about but I think he's pitched decently with a rough outting here or there. Boston very tough to beat at home though.

 

[reNew Orleans]

Adding:

Atlanta Braves -112 (James v. Johnson) (1.5 Units) W
Im hoping that the Braves last game was an indication that they have started to swing well again, but even so Johnson was a long ways to go to get back to his 2006 form. Johnson + a Fish pen should provide the Bravos the entire game with run scoring opportunities, especially if they can knock Johnson out early. James also has some very good #'s vs the Fish but it was only 2 starts. Anyways fade Johnson and Fish pen.

Washington Gnationals +163 (Chico v. Snell) L
The Pirates may have the better pitcher today but Chico had perhaps his best outting vs the Pirates this year and the Gnats tend to just find ways to stay in games. The Gnats aren't that much worse than the Pirates and even though they lost Guzman and theyve struggled to get runs I think they are worth the price. UNDER looks like a solid play as well.

St. Louis Cardinals +122 (Wainwright v. Arroyo) (2 Units) *pitching change - not graded
Arroyo's #s vs the Cards arent very pretty and #s even worse at home. Wainwright has pitched fairly well over the past couple of months. I will go with the stronger pitcher at the moment with the better team. Just don't trust Arroyo yet.

San Diego Padres -111 (Young v. Kuo) (2.5 Units)
I don't understand why this line has dropped and continued to drop. Sure the Dodgers bats are on fire and Young hasn't recorded a win vs the Dodgers, but he has a 2.97 ERA vs them lifetime. He's doing something right, the bats just haven't come through and the Padres have guys who can hit the longball and can hit Lefties. Kuo's given up a HR in each of his last two starts. I don't ask for a lot from the Padres but I think this should finally get Young a W vs the Dodgers.

Detroit Tigers -104 (Verlander vs. Santana) L
What a pitching matchup. You can argue either way but I'll take the Tigers v LHP theory. Both pitchers have dominated the opposing team but Verlander @ home this cheap is something you won't see much, and he has the better bats to back him up.


El Mago - just looked at some #'s, nothing to indepth. I had a busy day yesterday and want to relax some.

I think there is good value on Texas, they hit Wakefield well he gave up 5 and 6 ERs vs the Padres and Giants of all teams in his last two starts. I don't trust Wright. Hes now going to be facing an AL team and Houston was awful last week only getting 3 hits off of him, but drew 6 walks. If the Sox draw 6 walks, Wright would be in trouble.

Washburn is 1-6 lifetime with a 4.60 ERA vs the BlowJays. Jays have been scoring runs and Washburns walks are up the past few starts so might be worth a play on the Jays both bullpens are very good so you have to ask yourself if you think McGowan can outpitch Washburn, but he just came off a 1 HR near no hitter, might be a bit tired.

 

[reNew Orleans]

my mets over was for 2.5 Units, not 3. sorry about that.

 

[Blue_Chip]

DAMN YOU, CORDERO :moose:

 

[Troutman]

Fucking Cordero!

 

[Blue_Chip]

i'm gambling on the detroit run-line... getting +198 rather than -106

but i am scared those 1.5 runs will be crucial...

 

[Blue_Chip]

cordero illow: reNew


:36_11_6:

 

[reNew Orleans]

cordero was not clutch at all

GL with that RL Blue_Chip. could be profittable, takes some guts to try it haha

 

[reNew Orleans]

Milwaukee blew the game in style
Washington had the lead and gave it up giving up 2 runs to let Pitt tie them and finally put away in the 9th.
St. Louis pitcher change screwed a bet I was just feeling, who knows what Wainwright wouldve done today.


Adding:

Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants UNDER 8.5 +114 (Hernandez v. Morris)
I know Hernandez hasn't pitched very well lately, but those were all AL teams. Now he's back in his comfort zone facing NL teams and has a sub 3 ERA lifetime vs the Giants. Morris has a 3.36 ERA vs the D-Backs, but at home he also has a 2.79 ERA this year. The Wind is a very scary factor blowing out at 21 mph to dead center but there are some very strong Under trends between these two teams and that support both of the pitchers tonight. Reliford is the ump tonight and I expect that to help these two pitchers get some favorable calls throughout the game. Reliford calls 13.7 SO to 6.2 BBs a game and has called 62.74% strikes but thats down from last year and I think we will see his 9-6 O/U record soon be at .500. D-Backs bats struggled last series vs the Dodgers and think they continue tonight. Giants also struggled vs the Padres so neither team hitting very well coming in.

Toronto Bluejays @ Seattle Mariners OVER 8.5 -114 (McGowan v. Washburn)
Basically the angle I've taken is McGowan off a near no-hitter and Washburn vs a team he struggles against. I think McGowan will be shaky after a great start and the Jays can hit Lefties, also hitting much better the past couple weeks. Seattle's bats are pretty hit and miss but like I said above I think McGowan struggles after a great game. the winds blowing out to LF @ 10mph or so and Randy Marsh is the ump. his 6-12 O/U record is misleading since year to year he calls a low % of strikes.