Friday MLB (6/15)

reNew Orleans

Clubbin' with Rasual Butler
April: 91-69-3 +29.126 Units
May: 112-109-1 +17.898 Units
June: 34-35-2 +6.18 Units

Overall: 233-210-6 +56.604 Units
Sides: 137-124 +32.148 Units
Run Lines: 15-43 -37.505 Units
Totals: 84-47-6 +58.561 Units


1-3 yesterday -3.4 Units, Kameron Loe ends up looking like a stud. That came out of nowhere but I guess everyone here was too caught up into the Pirates win the day before thinking they were "hot" when they really just played two games well vs a team that sucks.

Posted some of my thoughts over in the Friday Discussion/Thoughts thread, you should check it out, some good info in there from the forum.


In the Early game today SD/CHC - SD and Wells as Dogs. I know Wells isn't anything special but come on. It was established earlier in the year that SD just owned the Cubs and this could be a steal for a dog. You have to count on the bats for SD to come around but Lilly has been pitching very poorly, and SD bullpen is definitely top tier while you never know what you will get with the Cubs. Barrett is scheduled to play today, but these Cubs just haven't seen much of Wells and I think that will be to Wells advantage. The Cubbies have been pretty hot recently and playing a lot of close games. These Padres haven't seen much of Lilly except for Mike Cameron who hits lefties fairly well and has hit Lilly very well in the past. He hasn't pitched in a while either after getting ejected in the 1st inning vs. the Braves. He may be well rested but perhaps will be rusty. Lilly has some good day outtings this year with a sub 3 ERA.

Here's a bit of info:
RotoWorld.com has learned that Chase Headley is being called up for Friday's game and will be in the lineup against the Cubs.
As if it wasn't already obvious, Padres manager Bud Black just isn't a fan of Russell Branyan. If Kevin Kouzmanoff goes on the DL, Headley will likely get a chance to play fairly regularly for a couple of weeks, making him a decent option in NL-only leagues. Headley has hit .357/.433/.648 in 227 at-bats for Double-A San Antonio.

Cubs are 14-18 @ home, Padres 18-15 on the road. Padres 12-5 vs NL Cent, Cubs are 3-5 vs. NL west

Brocail
will be unavailable today.

Padres are averaging 5.5 runs in July. 7-5 on the month
Cubs are averaging 4.93 runs in July. 8-6 on the month.

Not a lot of info to back either side. But basically Padres have the Cubs # it seems, meaning getting the W. 10-2 in the last 12 meetings. Lilly has put up good #'s vs the Padres but last appearance was 2004. Wells pitched a great game earlier this year allowing 5 hits, 2 BBs, 1 ER, 5 Ks in 7 IP, just under a month ago, threw about 13 pitches an inning very efficient game.

Very little wind, but very warm weather.

May make a play on the Padres today.


Arizona Diamondbacks +143
UNDER 8.5

I am very high on Owings, I've posted my thoughts about him all year. Big time pitcher who came out of nowhere to start playing this year really. Flew up the minor leagues last year and a sub 3 era in all his games minus 1 bad outting vs the Pirates after being injured with a hammy/sent back to the minors when Randy was called up. He doesn't have the best stuff as a pitcher, but he doesn't get frustrated easily. He was basically the team at Tulane and always game up big, that's why I love this guy, he was clutch and that's something you can't teach. O's are still reeling, yea the D-Backs offense is in a funk but as a dog at this size is too much too me. I mean they did face Boston and New York back to back. They faced Beckett, Tavarez, Dice-K, Wang, Moose, Pettitte. Becketts been superb, Tavarez has been pitching decently, Dice-K is overrated a bit but Randy just owned the Red Sox, Wang is starting to get back into form, Moose though he may be underachieving is a Vet and can pitch when needed and Pettitte has been very good this year. They lost 6/7 but two were blown by the bullpens. Owings has faced some good hitting teams lately. The O's are as close as non clutch as can be, which is good for Owings because he can get about 6 K's a game but he can get out of jams. Bedard is a good pitcher, can get a lot of K's but he's too inconsistant to me. The thing that scares me is the D-Backs are horrible against lefties only hitting .229. Under looks like a good play but these bullpens aren't the greatest. I may be a bit of a homer with this lean but if the D-Backs get dogged anymore I may have to pull the trigger on them.

BOL to Yall Friday :cheers:
 
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thanks Satyr - GL with your plays today buddy. :shake:

EARLY GAME:

San Diego Padres +124
(Wells v. Lilly)
San Diego Padres @ Chicago Cubs UNDER 8.5 +113 (1.5 Units)
This is the angle I am taking, I listed everything above you really need to know, saw a little bit on Covers that was convincing enough.

Wells is a solid enough pitcher to go 6-7 giving up 2/3 runs. Padres bullpen should keep the Cubs bats quiet afterwards. Lefties give Padres (exception Cameron). Wind is blowing in SLIGHTLY from right field (6 mph). Lilly pitchs well in the day. Fly ball pitcher with wind coming in, ERA under 3 (from covers thread I read). Good sign for Lilly as the Padres have guys who like to swing for the fences, not a high avg team in the first place. I know Lilly has been piss poor but this is a good situation for him to bounce back in, a team which can't hit Lefties, good pitching conditions for him. Cubs bullpen just better not blow it. I think the Padres may squeak this one out with a 4-2 or 4-3 victory.
 
Health on today's early game...SD going with day time lineup...no giles or kouz puts me on Chubs...going ETG style and playing it as Cubs -1
 
Health on today's early game...SD going with day time lineup...no giles or kouz puts me on Chubs...going ETG style and playing it as Cubs -1

thanks BigRaktor - good hit there buddy, Lilly bounced back very well. I was definitely feeling good about the total play so I made it bigger. We both got a piece of the early game. :shake:

1-1 +.695 Units so far

I am seriously considering the under in the Arizona/Baltimore game. The way Owings can pitch I don't think the O's can put up more than 2 and think he's last atleast 6. Bedard has pitched better recently, doesn't get run support, the D-Backs can't hit lefties so I see a 2-1, 2-2, 3-1 type game after 7 innings. Just a hefty price on the under 8.5 @ -118 right now. I would love to back Owings in this spot but their inability to hit lefties is making me lay off. I'll be back later to post some plays
 
O's seem to not be hitting anything right now and I expect Bedard to go 7ip of 2-3er baseball so you could be good there..

GL
 
thanks green - I guess we will see what happens, hopefully no BS or random break outs tonight.

thanks steed - gl to you bro.

Adding:

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Baltimore Orioles UNDER 8.5 -119 (OWINGS v. Marsh) (3 Units)

Marsh is umping and has called 61.21% strikes this year, a bit misleading with a 5-10 O/U record


a quick ump rundown:

Atl/Cle - Meals
CWS/Pit - Guccione
Arz/Bal - Marsh
Det/Phi - Draked
SF/Bos - Randazzo
NYM/NYY - Wegner
Was/Tor - Bucknor
Tex/Cin - Iassogna
Mil/Min - O'Nora
 
thanks dmoney - not actually on a side in the game, scared of the d-backs bats choking vs Bedard (L). hoping for a low scoring game

Adding:
New York Yankees RL +128 (Rocket v. Perez)
screw capping, Yankees have been riding an emotional wave and the Yankees are hot, the Mets are not.
 
Ah, missed that. Just read the initial post and thought you were on it. Well, can't blame you for siding with both Owings and Bedard.
 
I can't take this anymore.

Two big totals the past two weeks were well under and then a bullpen went and screwed me over in the in final frames. 8th inning situations that should've never happened lead to the 9th and then it goes over in the 9th. unreal. I don't know what I can say. I would be up about 15 more units with those two wins but god awful errors, hitting batters, passed balls, multiple HRs, what can you do. I feel like I need to teake a break but I know I capped those to perfection until the bullshit happened. Wow. some stupid mental mistakes change the game situation completely. Awful bullpens, can't believe it. how the hell do you hit a leadoff man in the 9th inning down 2 runs? are you kidding me? I cant even understand this shit.
 
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