Friday MLB (4/11/08)

reNew Orleans

Clubbin' with Rasual Butler
Favs: 4-5 -3.64 Units
Dogs:
19-7 +20.265 Units
Totals:
16-12-1 +2.350 Units
Misc: 7-8 -1.198 Units
Overall:
46-32-1 +17.777 Units

2-3 -1.1 Units yesterday, I do finally feel like I'm finally getting the feel for MLB back after the 1st couple of weeks. I had a few big winning days, a few big losing days, and got to experience the ups/downs/mooses/lucky wins.


Just throwing around some thoughts, I'll lock in my plays tomorrow because all games have late starts.
Also Hornets v. Lakers tomorrow, trying to get one big step closer to securing that #1 spot :popcorn:

Colorado Rockies +125 (Francis v. Webb)
A rematch from this past weekend and the Rockies bats started to wake up this past series with the Bravos. Its a shame the last game was PPD for them to see their explosion from 2 days ago wasn't just a one and done deal. Still a couple of victories can go a long way towards boosting a teams confidence and the #'s are there for Francis to stay undefeated in Chase.

Francis @ D-Backs (Career):
7 Starts (4-0): 41.2 IP, 36 H, 15 ER, 6 HR, 13 BB, 23 K, 3.24 ERA, 1.18 WHIP

Francis VS. D-Backs Last Year:
3 Starts (1-1): 19 IP, 19 H, 6 ER, 1 HR, 6 BB, 13 K, 2.84 ERA, 1.32 WHIP

If you take away Francis last start vs the D-Backs, this current roster.
30/108 = .278 (BEFORE last weekend)
48/137 = .307 (AFTER last weekend)

They simply rocked him last game. 4 of the 5 runs in the 1st meeting this year came via HRs, 3 surrendered by Francis.

Chris Young - 3/12 with 2 HRs and 3 RBIs lifetime, last game went 2/3 with 2 HRs and 3 RBIs.
Justin Upton, I don't know if I can see him keeping this up for much longer... a day off might be harmful to a guy who's been racking up multi-hit games like he's a vet, barely taking any walks (4 v. 11 Ks).

But if these hitters have matured into anything decent, this Arizona team could be formidable team even with the youth. They'll just have to some how bolster then pen unless Lyon can step it up or Tony Pena can do the job.


Now to Webb.
It's always difficult to go against top tier pitchers. I'm sure there will be plenty of takers on Webb at this price at home (even if it's -150). But it's not mystery that Webb has struggled vs the Rockies.

Webb in his last 5 starts @ HOME vs. the Rockies (all occured in 06-07)
6 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 4 K, 2 BB
7 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 7 K, 2 BB, 1 HR
7 IP, 8 H, 5 ER,7 K, 4 BB, 1 HR
7 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 2 K, 4 BB
9 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 10 K
The 1st 4 were last year, the last one was in 06.

I'll be waiting on this line to creep on up. Also if you want to consider an under play 2-6 last 8 UNDER between these two teams. Wind is projected to blow in from CF @ 7 mph.


St. Louis Cardinals -132 (Lohse v. Zito)
Fade Zito and Lohse is pitching outstanding early on. Not much to say about this. Cain and Lincecum on deck so if theres a time to get a W it's now... of course the Giants bats could help out the Cards but they did secure a win over the Cards today vs Wainwright.

San Diego Padres -115
(Peavy v. Penny)
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers UNDER 7 -120
These guys again... Penny gave it up early but that was all. Bard, Gonzalez, B. Giles, and Edmonds have all given Penny trouble by hitting him or getting on base so the edge goes to Peavy and the Padres.


Chicago Cubs ??? (Zambrano v. Myers)
I'm fading Myers until he pitches a good game, I still can't see him becoming mentally prepared for the starters role after being messed around with so much last year. Z has a 2.79 ERA, 1.12 WHIP vs the Phils in 6 games (3-2). Myers isn't getting the K #'s he normally gets and is walking more than he normally would.


New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox OVER 9.5 +100 (Wang v. Buchholz)
Wang has a 4.56 ERA vs the Sox and a 6.17 ERA in Fenway. He's given up 20 BB and 45 hits in 35 innings equaling a 1.86 WHIP in Boston. Buccholz still getting too much respect in my book, I mean that was amazing that no hitter he had and he is definitely talented but this is Yankees v. Red Sox. It doesn't matter when these two play, both teams will want to put up the runs. I hope to see this drop to 9. It will be cold and possibly raining, possible cause for concern.


Oakland Athletics +145 (Blanton v. Sabathia)
How long will Sabathia struggle? Blanton doesn't pitch as well on the road but I can't help but notice that the A's are playing well at the moment. Their pitching has been outstanding and they've won 5 of their last 6 games.


Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers UNDER 10 -110 (Litsch v. Padilla)
Both pitchers have an advantage since they've got little or no experience vs the opposing batters. I don't expect the Jays after a couple of surprising loses to bounce back so quickly. They got two rookie LHP and they couldn't get anything on the board. Wind is blowing out to LF @ about 9 mph...


Los Angeles Angles +105 (Weaver v. Hernandez)
Los Angeles Angles @ Seattle Mariners OVER 8 -105

Weaver is 4-1 some how vs the M's with a 4.68 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. Probably because the M's can absolutely suck and not score anything on any given day. But it's not exactly like King Felix has done his part vs the Angles with a 4.72 ERA and 2-4 record in 8 games. He's pitched a couple of gems vs them but he's also had terrible ones. I trust the Angels bats/pen more than the M's right now, especially with Lowe already being shaky in the closing role.


by glance.
MIN/KC UNDER ???
DET/CHW OVER ???



BOL To Yall Friday :cheers:
 
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GL bro, keep up the nice work! I'll be pulling for your Hornets man, CP3 for MVP!!!
 
Great work reNew. Good looking card for Friday. I'll be on a few of the same. Loving that matchup with Peavy & Penny.
 
The Texas-Toronto under is intriguing. One thing that worries me about Yanks/Sox is that both teams have good pens. I'd hate to see the game be 4-3 after 5 or 6 and miss the OVER. Perhaps it's a good spot to take the 5i OVER instead.

GL renew
 
BOL today RO, with you on SD and can't blame you for fading Zito. Will be opposite on the Cubbies though.
 
thanks Yanks - hope we do well today.

thanks mags - CP3 4 MVP! no reason he shouldnt be.

thanks bailey - These are all actually leans although I did lock in some of my plays today.

thanks vk - trying to narrow it down some but I always end up with big cards.

thanks dmoney - lets cash the pads and good health on the phils. Don't know what to expect from Myers, which is annoying because he's on my fantasy team


LOCKED IN:

New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox OVER 9.5 +105 (Wang v. Buchholz)
This is killing me since I should've known it'd drop to 9.

St. Louis Cardinals -137 (Lohse v. Zito) (2 Units)
And this is too, love getting the worst possible line. Kind of a chase, had the RL yesterday and just looking to go +1 Unit on the series.

Texas Rangers -112 (Padilla v. Litsch)
Toronto is 5-22 in their last 27 in Arlington.

Chicago Cubs -105 (Zambrano v. Myers)

Los Angeles Angles @ Seattle Mariners OVER 7.5 -115 (Weaver v. Hernandez)
 
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gl reNew...i think you're on the right side with the rockies, i just couldn't pull the trigger.
 
thanks brar - should be the case, lets do it

thanks lowgo - im still waiting on it, hope to get better odds.


Adding:

San Diego Padres -118 (Peavy v. Penny)
 
thanks cal and ramble, lets do it.

Adding:
Milwaukee Brewers +101 (Parra v. Figueroa)
Just thought this was nice value with a guy who hasn't pitched in the bigs, a career minor leaguer.
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers UNDER 7 +105 (Peavy v. Penny)


Updated Card:

Milwaukee Brewers +101 (Parra v. Figueroa)
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers UNDER 7 +105 (Peavy v. Penny)
San Diego Padres -118 (Peavy v. Penny)
New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox OVER 9.5 +105 (Wang v. Buchholz)
St. Louis Cardinals -137 (Lohse v. Zito) (2 Units)
Texas Rangers -112 (Padilla v. Litsch)
Chicago Cubs -105 (Zambrano v. Myers)
Los Angeles Angles @ Seattle Mariners OVER 7.5 -115 (Weaver v. Hernandez)
 
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