reNew Orleans
Clubbin' with Rasual Butler
Favs: 3-2 +0.15 Units
Dogs: 7-3 +7.975 Units
Totals: 2-2-1 -.35 Units
1st 5 Innings: 0-1 -1.00 Units
1st 5 Innings Total: 3-3 -.20 Units
6th Inning+: 1-0 +1 Units
6th Inning+ Total: 0-0 +/-0 Units
RLs: 1-1 - .148 Units
Misc: 1-1 -.05 Units
Overall: 18-13-1 +7.377 Units
3-2 +1.6 Units Yesterday. My initial play got PPD, Couple of 1st 5 inning plays that just canceled each other out, Moyer and lack of defense cost me the under in the Nats/Phils when they gave up 5 in the top of the 1st and only 2 runs the rest of the 4.5 innings from both teams in the 1st 5. Can say I probably lucked out with the CIN/ARZ under 1st 5 since Doug Davis put quite a few guys on base. Hou/SD under hit, just two poor offenses it doesn't really seem to matter who's pitching since most of them would go under. Jays had the lead, lost it late but can't complain about a positive day. On to a great card on Friday, lots of potential in it.
Locked In:
Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs UNDER 8 -105 (Sampson v. Hill) W
Sampson was putting up nice #'s for the first couple of months last year then things fell apart. He was in the mid 3's in ERA and only gave up 5 HRs in 55 Innings in April and May, then it became an issue. The next 64.1 IP he gave up 14 HRs and carried a 5+ ERA in June and 6+ ERA in July.
This is a VERY SMALL sample so you can take it for what it's worth.
Sampson vs Cubs:
4 games (2 starts) - 15 IP, 10 H, 1 ER, 1 HR, 3 BB, 7 K, .60 ERA, .87 WHIP, .189 Opp BA
Hill vs Astros, against another small sample size
5 games (3 starts) - 21.1 IP, 13 H, 7 ER, 3 HR, 9 BB, 21 K, 2.95 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, .173 Opp BA
I am a fan of Hill, he's got one of the nastiest curveballs in the game, but he needs to learn to not give up the longball. If he does that, he'll be a force for a long time because he can absolutely shut a team down.
The wind blowing in from CF is nice for this game atleast.
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays UNDER 9.5 -120 (Wakefield v. Marcum) W
It seems almost any game involving Wakefield vs the Jays has gone under. Marcum. Last year Wakefield faced the Jays 5 times with a 3-2 record and avg. 6.4 Inning per outing vs. the Sox with a 3.38 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, striking out 18 and gave up a HR once per meeting (on avg). He's also a guy who's come out of the gates pitching his best the last few years.
04 - 2.14 ERA, 1.24 WHIP in 4 games (3 starts)
05 - 2.78 ERA, 1.08 WHIP in 5 starts
06 - 3.90 ERA, 1.27 WHIP in 5 starts
07 - 2.59 ERA, 1.28 WHIP in 5 starts
Wake also pitches better INDOORS
04 - 3 starts (3-0), 2.61 ERA, 1.02 WHIP
05 - 4 starts (2-0), 2.48 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
06 - 3 starts (1-2), 6.35 ERA, 1.41 WHIP*
07 - 5 starts (3-2), 1.69 ERA, 1.16 WHIP
So one year in the past 4 he probably had one bad outing indoors but you can tell there is a pattern of consistency.
Opposing the Sox is Marcum, one of the favorites of many to have a big year. In 8 games (3 starts), Marcum is 2-1 with a 2.77 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and Opp BA of .221, 23 Ks vs 21 Hits, but he did allow 10 BBs vs the Sox. His starts last year vs the Sox can be a cause of concern because he gave up 5 ERs in just 11 IP in 2 starts, with 12 Hits and 4 BB and 8 Ks. I expect to see this under trend continue though, also lean Sox but initially leaned to the Jays. If I can get a dog price on BOS i'll definitely bite, this is why I need matchbook, bookmaker doesn't give the most favorable lines.
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves UNDER 8.5 -110 (Maine v. Hudson) Canceled
Weather is a possible issue today because of rain and the wind may be blowing out to LF slightly at around 12-15 mph. Not enough O/U data on wind blowing out that way the last couple of years to consider it a factor. You have two pitchers who have pitched well vs the opposing teams. The bullpen situation for the Braves is a bit scary since they've been awfully rocky to start the season I expect both teams to settle in though because this is after all the Mets v. Braves. They should be riding their respective pitchers 6-7 innings into it if weather permits. Im just hoping there isn't a rain delay.
Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins UNDER 8.5 -115 (Bale vs. Baker) W
I know nothing about Bale but luckily Baker has dominated the Royals. Both teams aren't known for their bats as much as their pitching, not saying that both teams don't have guys that can produce but they're definitely not offensive machines. Great bullpens from either side so Bale is the X-factor in keeping this under.
Los Angeles Dogers @ San Diego Padres +108 (Kuroda v. Germano)
This is what you need to know. Germano vs Dodgers...
5 games - 4 starts (0-4), 7.59 ERA, 1.92 WHIP, .363 Opp BA
Random Thoughts/some leans:
D-Backs@Rockies
I would love to take the D-Backs. #1 Owings fan here. Only Tulane player in the Bigs but he's a damn good one, basically carried us to the College World Seires. I supported him all year last year, he just got some rough breaks but he can be a good pitcher and the stats indicate that. He often struggled in the 1st Inning (keeping his pitch count down) and that concerns me vs the Rockies because they haven't scored much this year and now make their debut at home after their magical run. He'd often get taken out in the 5th because of it he couldn't keep his pitch counts low. Also the D-Backs are just flat awful vs LHP. Redman may not be a stud but the D-Backs are just AWFUL vs. LHP. I was considering the over but I got deterred after seeing that. If I had to choose I lean Rocks but not paying the juice on Redman.
Leaning towards over 9 in CHW/DET. Det now has some easier arms to face, Det pitching is nothing to intimidate me.
Lean Byrd and the Indians, want +money because bookmaker hasn't offered it yet.
phils/reds over 10.5 - I see 10's so I'm waiting.
BOL To Yall Today :cheers:
Dogs: 7-3 +7.975 Units
Totals: 2-2-1 -.35 Units
1st 5 Innings: 0-1 -1.00 Units
1st 5 Innings Total: 3-3 -.20 Units
6th Inning+: 1-0 +1 Units
6th Inning+ Total: 0-0 +/-0 Units
RLs: 1-1 - .148 Units
Misc: 1-1 -.05 Units
Overall: 18-13-1 +7.377 Units
3-2 +1.6 Units Yesterday. My initial play got PPD, Couple of 1st 5 inning plays that just canceled each other out, Moyer and lack of defense cost me the under in the Nats/Phils when they gave up 5 in the top of the 1st and only 2 runs the rest of the 4.5 innings from both teams in the 1st 5. Can say I probably lucked out with the CIN/ARZ under 1st 5 since Doug Davis put quite a few guys on base. Hou/SD under hit, just two poor offenses it doesn't really seem to matter who's pitching since most of them would go under. Jays had the lead, lost it late but can't complain about a positive day. On to a great card on Friday, lots of potential in it.
Locked In:
Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs UNDER 8 -105 (Sampson v. Hill) W
Sampson was putting up nice #'s for the first couple of months last year then things fell apart. He was in the mid 3's in ERA and only gave up 5 HRs in 55 Innings in April and May, then it became an issue. The next 64.1 IP he gave up 14 HRs and carried a 5+ ERA in June and 6+ ERA in July.
This is a VERY SMALL sample so you can take it for what it's worth.
Sampson vs Cubs:
4 games (2 starts) - 15 IP, 10 H, 1 ER, 1 HR, 3 BB, 7 K, .60 ERA, .87 WHIP, .189 Opp BA
Hill vs Astros, against another small sample size
5 games (3 starts) - 21.1 IP, 13 H, 7 ER, 3 HR, 9 BB, 21 K, 2.95 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, .173 Opp BA
I am a fan of Hill, he's got one of the nastiest curveballs in the game, but he needs to learn to not give up the longball. If he does that, he'll be a force for a long time because he can absolutely shut a team down.
The wind blowing in from CF is nice for this game atleast.
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays UNDER 9.5 -120 (Wakefield v. Marcum) W
It seems almost any game involving Wakefield vs the Jays has gone under. Marcum. Last year Wakefield faced the Jays 5 times with a 3-2 record and avg. 6.4 Inning per outing vs. the Sox with a 3.38 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, striking out 18 and gave up a HR once per meeting (on avg). He's also a guy who's come out of the gates pitching his best the last few years.
04 - 2.14 ERA, 1.24 WHIP in 4 games (3 starts)
05 - 2.78 ERA, 1.08 WHIP in 5 starts
06 - 3.90 ERA, 1.27 WHIP in 5 starts
07 - 2.59 ERA, 1.28 WHIP in 5 starts
Wake also pitches better INDOORS
04 - 3 starts (3-0), 2.61 ERA, 1.02 WHIP
05 - 4 starts (2-0), 2.48 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
06 - 3 starts (1-2), 6.35 ERA, 1.41 WHIP*
07 - 5 starts (3-2), 1.69 ERA, 1.16 WHIP
So one year in the past 4 he probably had one bad outing indoors but you can tell there is a pattern of consistency.
Opposing the Sox is Marcum, one of the favorites of many to have a big year. In 8 games (3 starts), Marcum is 2-1 with a 2.77 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and Opp BA of .221, 23 Ks vs 21 Hits, but he did allow 10 BBs vs the Sox. His starts last year vs the Sox can be a cause of concern because he gave up 5 ERs in just 11 IP in 2 starts, with 12 Hits and 4 BB and 8 Ks. I expect to see this under trend continue though, also lean Sox but initially leaned to the Jays. If I can get a dog price on BOS i'll definitely bite, this is why I need matchbook, bookmaker doesn't give the most favorable lines.
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves UNDER 8.5 -110 (Maine v. Hudson) Canceled
Weather is a possible issue today because of rain and the wind may be blowing out to LF slightly at around 12-15 mph. Not enough O/U data on wind blowing out that way the last couple of years to consider it a factor. You have two pitchers who have pitched well vs the opposing teams. The bullpen situation for the Braves is a bit scary since they've been awfully rocky to start the season I expect both teams to settle in though because this is after all the Mets v. Braves. They should be riding their respective pitchers 6-7 innings into it if weather permits. Im just hoping there isn't a rain delay.
Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins UNDER 8.5 -115 (Bale vs. Baker) W
I know nothing about Bale but luckily Baker has dominated the Royals. Both teams aren't known for their bats as much as their pitching, not saying that both teams don't have guys that can produce but they're definitely not offensive machines. Great bullpens from either side so Bale is the X-factor in keeping this under.
Los Angeles Dogers @ San Diego Padres +108 (Kuroda v. Germano)
This is what you need to know. Germano vs Dodgers...
5 games - 4 starts (0-4), 7.59 ERA, 1.92 WHIP, .363 Opp BA
Random Thoughts/some leans:
D-Backs@Rockies
I would love to take the D-Backs. #1 Owings fan here. Only Tulane player in the Bigs but he's a damn good one, basically carried us to the College World Seires. I supported him all year last year, he just got some rough breaks but he can be a good pitcher and the stats indicate that. He often struggled in the 1st Inning (keeping his pitch count down) and that concerns me vs the Rockies because they haven't scored much this year and now make their debut at home after their magical run. He'd often get taken out in the 5th because of it he couldn't keep his pitch counts low. Also the D-Backs are just flat awful vs LHP. Redman may not be a stud but the D-Backs are just AWFUL vs. LHP. I was considering the over but I got deterred after seeing that. If I had to choose I lean Rocks but not paying the juice on Redman.
Leaning towards over 9 in CHW/DET. Det now has some easier arms to face, Det pitching is nothing to intimidate me.
Lean Byrd and the Indians, want +money because bookmaker hasn't offered it yet.
phils/reds over 10.5 - I see 10's so I'm waiting.
BOL To Yall Today :cheers:
Last edited:
GL
rayer
