Friday - May 10th Discussion

[Ryno14]

Getting this started early. Someone feel free to add the lines, weather, and umps all in here. Lots of juice again tomorrow. I already played the Cubs -130 at open, and I expect they may close higher than that (already seeing 135). Brewers bats are over 30 +wRC worse against lefties on the road - and as a team just worse on the road, in general. Most of Yelich's damage has come in Miller this year. Both teams are hot, but still not sold on Gio at all. He's been back for 2 starts and both against the Mets, so consider me not sold yet.

Feel free to share any thoughts you may have on this game or others. Hope everyone gets a great start to their Mother's Day weekend.

 

[Marsski]

Gonna fade Bailey. He’s pitched better of late so due to get rapped pretty hard. Hot garbage in my book.
Just deciding how to attack.

 

[peelpub94]

Getting this started early. Someone feel free to add the lines, weather, and umps all in here. Lots of juice again tomorrow. I already played the Cubs -130 at open, and I expect they may close higher than that (already seeing 135). Brewers bats are over 30 +wRC worse against lefties on the road - and as a team just worse on the road, in general. Most of Yelich's damage has come in Miller this year. Both teams are hot, but still not sold on Gio at all. He's been back for 2 starts and both against the Mets, so consider me not sold yet.

Feel free to share any thoughts you may have on this game or others. Hope everyone gets a great start to their Mother's Day weekend.

Not to mention Q's utter dominance over the Brewers.

 

[TRoe15]

Teams facing LHP today, splits:

Brewers - .266/.340/.486
Cubs - .240/.334/.455
Mariners - .239/.341/.441
Rockies - .243/.309/.445

 

[tuck321]

Cubs 7-0 so far in first game of series

 

[TRoe15]

Cubs 7-0 so far in first game of series

That stat is just not even remotely true. They're 8-4 in the first game of a series this year.

 

[TRoe15]

Cowboy Joe in Wrigley today. Neither pitcher has had much success with him. Gio with a 6.61 ERA in 16.1 IP, Quintana with a 4.76 in 39.2 IP.

 

[tuck321]

Sorry its a stat I read this morning at Covers by a source I considered reliable
Actually the number itself is impossible this late
Checked the actual statement was 7-0 in first game of a HOME series

 

[mrpickem]

That stat is just not even remotely true. They're 8-4 in the first game of a series this year.

True and 8-3-1 over the total fwiw

View attachment 39414

also in Friday day games at wrigley they are 30-10 over last 3+ years

View attachment 39415

 

[TRoe15]

The home series stat is also not true. They just lost the first game of the Marlins series at home.

 

[B.A.R.]

The home series stat is also not true. They just lost the first game of the Marlins series at home.

:shake:

 

[mrpickem]

Rangers on the road vs a team with at least 20% better win pct are an amazing 74-62 with avg line +151 for +34% ROI
This includes all games since 2004 in months MAR-JUN

View attachment 39416 View attachment 39418

After June they still do very well, just not as good. 34-41 at avg line +170 for +22.5% ROI

View attachment 39417

 

[mrpickem]

Big ole Board

View attachment 39419

afternoon games catch a lot of action, mostly on scrubs...the under looks pretty shard...so far anyhoo

 

[strozey]

In Milwaukee’s previous trip to Wrigley Field, the Brewers knocked off the Cubs to clinch the NL Central title in Game #163 by a 3-1 score last October

 

[mrpickem]

View attachment 39420

 

[mrpickem]

brewcrew 23-12 RL on road after off day last 3+ years

View attachment 39421

Gio only 21-31 in road starts(team record) last 3+ years
He has actually lost 11 of last 12 starts away

View attachment 39422

 

[tuck321]

I knew they are 3-0 off a day off this season

 

[Ryno14]

I was certainly wrong about the way the Cubs line would move.

 

[Jm8122]

Hard not to like Greinke at home can’t remember the last time I lost with him at home

 

[Ryno14]

I see lots of love for the Cubs under, but not sure I could play it.

 

[peelpub94]

Cubs -120 is a nice price imo.

Q's career splits vs the Brewers:

 

[peelpub94]

Gio has solid splits vs the Cubs as well. Only pitched twice so far, both against the Mets. Hard to get a read.

 

[tuck321]

I think Gio away last 2 years is 5-13

 

[peelpub94]

He gave up almost a run and a half more on the road than home last year. The past does not dictate the present however.

 

[tuck321]

No i certainly want to look at the umpire

 

[Ryno14]

No i certainly want to look at the umpire

It's Cowboy Joe. TRoe posted the pitcher stats with him earlier in the thread

 

[tuck321]

I just read it but who is Cowboy Joe? Just a regular name

 

[Ryno14]

Joe West

 

[Ryno14]

I thought about playing F5 U4.5 -120 but it's 4 EV now.

 

[tuck321]

Something of a problem. Most info points squarely at Cubs but based on catchers its all Gio. The x factors of the day off and Quintana better with ump who is a homer. Probably a small bet on Cubs or pass. Will flip a coin

 

[mrpickem]

View attachment 39427

 

[mrpickem]

Small entertainment only action for me...

• 952 Chicago Cubs -119
• 951 Milwaukee Brewers/Chicago Cubs Under 7½ -105

 

[Ryno14]

1 run in this game feels like 5

 

[tuck321]

Some vague remarks. Strailly looks like trash but he is on 6 days rest and last year he was actually GREAT here. Not sure what to say after that but lifetime on 6 he is usually good

 

[peelpub94]

1 run in this game feels like 5

Feel asleep in the 3rd inning.. what a fucking snooze fest. Zero juice.

 

[tuck321]

Turns out Quintana is bad on first games of series and very bad on Friday from a thread I am reading at Covers. Lucky me for having a smart coin

 

[tuck321]

Greinke has an edge in tonight's game with Eddings a homer this season
Interested in Minn
Some theoretical arguments against Mets who really stink at home in first game of series

 

[tuck321]

Killersports has 3 trends supporting Colorado today

 

[Ryno14]

These guys are in the Cubs' heads. Pretty sad.

 

[tuck321]

Maybe will be looking at the game tomorrow

 

[Ryno14]

Lots of juice for me tonight. Jays/Rays parlay along with a Rockies/Red Sox parlay. Like Braves/DBacks over later but haven’t pulled the trigger yet. BOL everyone