Friday, July 20 SDQL

[JROCK1966]

Overall YTD: -$328.69
Post-ML Parlay Thread Action: +179.96

O's @ Blue Jays: Had some ups and downs since my Parlay thread endeavors but, what little success I've had since then, has included the previous game margins of the teams involved as one of my best parameters. Unfortunately, for Friday, not real comfortable using the margin since it's obviously been since Sunday since a team has played. But I do like this one as it has a nice wide range of win differential (10-20 wins more) and it produced a 7-0 SU record. Basically, in a game involving losing teams but the home team has 10-20 more wins than the opponent, the home team has really done well. Not so much, however, on the RL as that record is 4-3. So hopefully the ML price for the Jays will not be so pricey.

 

[JROCK1966]

Twins@Royals: Same concept as above however this time the road team has 10-20 more wins than the home team. Record is 3-0 SU and 3-0 RL. Important to note all 3 games had the road team as a dog but I have my doubts we'll see the Royals favored. Still, it's good to know history says the road team has some mojo on it's side which is a good place to start capping this game.

 

[JROCK1966]

Red Sox @ Tigers: Pics 1-3 below follow the progression of the same types of queries, listed above, but adding the home team's starter ERA in pic 2 and then road team's in pic 3. The SU records go from 3-5 to 1-5 to 0-2. So the only times the home team has won in this situation has been when they have had a starting pitcher with an ERA <4.00. Will have to check the "Stalking the Umpire" thread to see who's umpiring and what their O/U record is before I consider the Under. Red Sox are sure to be pricey but might consider the -1.5 RL here.

 

[JROCK1966]

Pirates @ Reds: The situation here has a 5-2 SU record but closer inspection reveals the favorites are 5-1 SU and 5-1 RL. This one will be active on the Reds for Friday and I'm most interested in exploring further to see some pitcher and umpire splits.

 

[JROCK1966]

Some Thursday Action:

7/19/2018 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 951 St. Louis Cardinals* +135 vs Chicago Cubs for 1st 5 Innings
C Martinez - R Listed K Hendricks - R Listed
Risking $20.00 To Win $27.00

BOLTA!!

 

[JROCK1966]

@VirginiaCavs ok I think I feel your frustration with backing the Cards.....

:riphair:

 

[VirginiaCavs]

@VirginiaCavs ok I think I feel your frustration with backing the Cards.....

:riphair:

Fucking Gyorko can‘t field a fucking ground ball

 

[JROCK1966]

Red Sox @ Tigers: Pics 1-3 below follow the progression of the same types of queries, listed above, but adding the home team's starter ERA in pic 2 and then road team's in pic 3. The SU records go from 3-5 to 1-5 to 0-2. So the only times the home team has won in this situation has been when they have had a starting pitcher with an ERA <4.00. Will have to check the "Stalking the Umpire" thread to see who's umpiring and what their O/U record is before I consider the Under. Red Sox are sure to be pricey but might consider the -1.5 RL here.

View attachment 33472View attachment 33473View attachment 33474

Given the progression shown in this post that's in favor of the road team, and Price's splits vs. the Tigers, I think a RL play on the Red Sox may be in order.

 

[JROCK1966]

Twins@Royals: Same concept as above however this time the road team has 10-20 more wins than the home team. Record is 3-0 SU and 3-0 RL. Important to note all 3 games had the road team as a dog but I have my doubts we'll see the Royals favored. Still, it's good to know history says the road team has some mojo on it's side which is a good place to start capping this game.

View attachment 33471

After checking pitching splits, I'm thinking the Under may be the best play for this game. Duffy has done really well vs. the Twins and Gibson has a great ERA at Kaufman Stadium. Give me an Under ump please to push me off the ledge.

 

[JROCK1966]

Overall YTD: -$328.69
Post-ML Parlay Thread Action: +179.96

O's @ Blue Jays: Had some ups and downs since my Parlay thread endeavors but, what little success I've had since then, has included the previous game margins of the teams involved as one of my best parameters. Unfortunately, for Friday, not real comfortable using the margin since it's obviously been since Sunday since a team has played. But I do like this one as it has a nice wide range of win differential (10-20 wins more) and it produced a 7-0 SU record. Basically, in a game involving losing teams but the home team has 10-20 more wins than the opponent, the home team has really done well. Not so much, however, on the RL as that record is 4-3. So hopefully the ML price for the Jays will not be so pricey.

View attachment 33470

Given the 2-5 O/U record with this situation, and the pitcher's splits listed below, thinking another Under is the play. Bundy has done really well vs. the Jays overall and has been lights out in the Rogers Center. Gaviglio has a great ERA at the Rogers Center in 5 starts thus far. Furthermore, with Machado out of the O's lineup, what little punch one of the worst lineups in baseball had is now gone.

 

[JROCK1966]

Here we go...11-0 SU record for home favs on the Friday AASB and win differential is greater than 10. 7-4 RL. Active on the Blue Jays, Phillies, Yankees, and M's.

 

[JROCK1966]

Post #11 can be further broken down into opposing pitcher's ERA between 4-5. 3-0 SU and 3-0 RL. Given Dylan Bundy's splits I posted in #10 not sure about going RL there but I can see the M's and Phillies winning by more than 1 tonight.

 

[JROCK1966]

Braves @ Nats: Interesting....similar situations in the past have yielded an 0-2 SU record for home favs with starter ERAs between 3-4 and 0-1 SU with opposing starter ERAs less tha 3. Active on the Nats tonight.

 

[emg2525]

Anyone know why the steep movement in favor of the Cards today?

 

[JROCK1966]

Anyone know why the steep movement in favor of the Cards today?

Just a guess but I would say it has something to do with the last time Flaherty pitched against the Cubs he dominated them. However, I would be leery that the line movement is also a rouse. Note what the Pirates did the 2nd time they faced Flaherty. Maybe @VirginiaCavs can shed some light on what happens the 2nd time a team faces a pitcher in a relatively short turnaround. He writes about that sort of info. Also, wind is forecasted to be blowing straight out to CF 15mph at game time. I would like to know if Flaherty puts sinking movement on his pitches to help keep them in the park.

 

[JROCK1966]

I'm tapped. Waiting on Umpire info to decide my plays but most interested in the Braves, Red Sox -1.5 RL, Jays Under, M's -1.5 RL, Royals Under, and Phillies -1.5 RL.

:tiphat:

 

[JROCK1966]

My card so far:

1. 7/20/2018 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 903 Atlanta Braves* -1½ +265 vs Washington Nationals
   A Sanchez - R Listed S Strasburg - R Listed
   Risking $10.00 To Win $26.50
2. 7/20/2018 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 903 Atlanta Braves* +167 vs Washington Nationals
   A Sanchez - R Listed S Strasburg - R Listed
   Risking $10.00 To Win $16.70
3. 7/20/2018 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 906 Philadelphia Phillies* -1½ +110 vs San Diego Padres
   C Richard - L Listed J Arrieta - R Listed
   Risking $10.00 To Win $11.00
4. 7/20/2018 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 913 Baltimore Orioles/Toronto Blue Jays* Under 4½ -110 for 1st 5 Innings
   D Bundy - R Listed S Gaviglio - R Listed
   Risking $11.00 To Win $10.00
5. 7/20/2018 8:15 PM MLB Baseball 919 Minnesota Twins/Kansas City Royals* Under 4½ -105 for 1st 5 Innings
   K Gibson - R Listed D Duffy - L Listed
   Risking $10.50 To Win $10.00
6. 7/20/2018 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 906 Philadelphia Phillies* -2½ +178 vs San Diego Padres
   C Richard - L Listed J Arrieta - R Listed
   Risking $10.00 To Win $17.80
7. 7/20/2018 7:10 PM MLB Baseball 915 Boston Red Sox* -1½ -130 vs Detroit Tigers
   D Price - L Listed M Boyd - L Listed
   Risking $13.00 To Win $10.00
8. 7/20/2018 7:10 PM MLB Baseball 915 Boston Red Sox* -2½ +125 vs Detroit Tigers
   D Price - L Listed M Boyd - L Listed
   Risking $10.00 To Win $12.50
   
   BOLTA!!
   

 

[JROCK1966]

Playing a little parlay for fun....2, 3, & 4-teamer RRs:

1. 7/20/2018 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 903 Atlanta Braves* -1½ +265 vs Washington Nationals
   A Sanchez - R Listed S Strasburg - R Listed
2. 7/20/2018 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 906 Philadelphia Phillies* -2½ +178 vs San Diego Padres
   C Richard - L Listed J Arrieta - R Listed
3. 7/20/2018 7:10 PM MLB Baseball 908 Cincinnati Reds* -1½ +190 vs Pittsburgh Pirates
   J Taillon - R Listed T Mahle - R Listed
4. 7/20/2018 10:10 PM MLB Baseball 924 Seattle Mariners* -2½ +160 vs Chicago White Sox
   J Shields - R Listed W LeBlanc - L Listed
   

Risking $22.00 (11 parlays at $2.00) To Win $445.69

BOLTA!!

 

[JROCK1966]

I fuckin' hate the O's.

 

[JROCK1966]

Adding:

7/20/2018 10:10 PM MLB Baseball 924 Seattle Mariners* -1½ -110 vs Chicago White Sox
J Shields - R Listed W LeBlanc - L Listed
Risking $11.00 To Win $10.00

7/20/2018 10:10 PM MLB Baseball 924 Seattle Mariners* -2½ +160 vs Chicago White Sox
J Shields - R Listed W LeBlanc - L Listed
Risking $10.00 To Win $16.00

 

[JROCK1966]

6-5 for +$26.29 in this thread. Nice hits on the Bravos ML & -1.5 RRL and hit 2 out of 4 on the parlay to basically break even there.

Overall YTD: -$302.40

Since July 5th: +$206.25

 

[Coolslaw1]

We were lucky to get that Sea RL, I had played it bf I even saw you taking it last night

 

[JROCK1966]

We were lucky to get that Sea RL, I had played it bf I even saw you taking it last night

It's better to be lucky than good! Ha-Ha!!

:whoohoo:

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

Way to grind jrock

 

[JROCK1966]

Way to grind jrock

And I can't stand the grind but my parlay failures forced me into it. Much appreciate the comment though! :shake:

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

But we have to grind jrock, lots of volatility in our hobby. Have a great weekend

 

[JROCK1966]

But we have to grind jrock, lots of volatility in our hobby. Have a great weekend

I hear ya brother!