Friday, July 13 SDQL

[JROCK1966]

2018 Overall Posted MLB YTD: -$400.40

Brewers @ Pirates: Toady's situation for this game has the home teams at a record of 1-4 SU and 2-3 RL (see pic 1) but this is the 1st time ever the home team has faced an opposing starter with an ERA <3. See pic 2. The lone Under (July 6, 2007) had a pitcher in Kyle Lohse who had a very nice home splits. See pic 4 and the road team in that game had a pitcher with a road ERA of 4.96. Today's game features Dave Kingham with ever better home splits than Lohse had and the first time ever (in this situation) an opposing pitcher has an ERA<3. The Umpire has an Under record of 0-4 with totals of 8 & 8.5. Recommended play: Under 8

 

[JROCK1966]

Tigers @ Astros: Tigers have no chance tonight. Recommended plays: Astros -1.5 & -2.5 RL

 

[JROCK1966]

Rays @ Twins: I've been following Eovaldi's road starts winning on his last one but losing 2 starts ago in Miami. He's been hot. The situation for the Rays and Twins tonight can be narrowed down to 1-1 SU & 1-1 RL records. The game that the dog won handily faced an opposing pitcher in AJ Burnett who had a 5.97 ERA for the month of July back in 2007. Ummm, Eovaldi is currently in a much better groove than that so I'm thinking this game mostly resembles the 1st one in which the home team lost. Eovaldi will find the going a bit tougher than the easy win he had vs. the Mets last time out but he should prevail over the average pitcher in Odorizzi. Odorizzi actually has a worse ERA at home than on the road. At first glance, his 1.64 ERA in the month of July "scurred" me but it includes 6 shutout innings against the lowly O's. And he gave up 6, 3, and 7 ER's in his 3 home starts prior to that. I like Eovaldi to outduel Odorizzi tonight. Recommended Play: Rays ML and -1.5RRL

 

[JROCK1966]

Phillies @ Marlins: The situation for this game can be narrowed down to 1-1 SU and 1-1 RL. See pic 1. I've given two other pics/queries which show how counter-intuitive taking backing the Marlins is for tonight. Pic 2 shows how, as opponent win differential increases, so does the chances for the dog winning. Pic 2 shows how, as the home team starter's ERA increases, so do the chances of the dog winning. Tonight's matchup has the Marlins at 1) more run differential than the example and 2) higher starter ERA than the example....both cases are very counter-intuitive. Lastly, last time I checked consensus, Phillies were a very popular pick for tonight. I think it's worth considering backing Chen, and his nice home split stats, for the ML win. BOL on what you decide!

 

[JROCK1966]

Tonight's Card:

1. 7/13/2018 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 901 Milwaukee Brewers/Pittsburgh Pirates* Under 8 +100
   J Guerra - R Listed N Kingham - R Listed
   Risking $20.00 To Win $20.00
2. 7/13/2018 7:10 PM MLB Baseball 906 Miami Marlins* +113 vs Philadelphia Phillies
   J Arrieta - R Listed W Chen - L Listed
   Risking $20.00 To Win $22.60
3. 7/13/2018 8:10 PM MLB Baseball 919 Tampa Bay Rays* -1½ +150 vs Minnesota Twins
   N Eovaldi - R Listed J Odorizzi - R Listed
   Risking $20.00 To Win $30.00
4. 7/13/2018 8:10 PM MLB Baseball 919 Tampa Bay Rays* -105 vs Minnesota Twins
   N Eovaldi - R Listed J Odorizzi - R Listed
   Risking $21.00 To Win $20.00
5. 7/13/2018 8:10 PM MLB Baseball 924 Houston Astros* -1½ -120 vs Detroit Tigers
   M Fiers - R Listed D Keuchel - L Listed
   Risking $24.00 To Win $20.00
6. 7/13/2018 8:10 PM MLB Baseball 924 Houston Astros* -2½ +130 vs Detroit Tigers
   M Fiers - R Listed D Keuchel - L Listed
   Risking $20.00 To Win $26.00

BOLTA!!

 

[Warhorse]

:beerdrink: bol

 

[bee172]

BOL

 

[JROCK1966]

Looks like a 2-4 night

:angrysnarl: