Friday facts

[tuck321]

I usually look at pitchers who do well on 6+
Lance Lynn on 6+ lifetime 17 innings ERA of 1.06 playing at home for an Elite team who is playing at home after losing 3 consecutive games on the road facing a quality pitcher who unfortunately is a right hander and tends to do very well at home after 1 or more days off.
Expert more entries and probably best to just let me write.

 

[tuck321]

Not sure about this one but worth a look.
Mike Montgomery
On 6+ 15 innings ERA of .60 based on 15 innings
On the road ERA of .87 based on 20.2 innings bouncing off another bad home game
Seattle has won their last 5 at NY. Yanks so far have not been able to hit him with 1 run, no walks and 2 hits
Tanaka on 6+ lifetime 4-1 2.30 ERA This season 4.09 but seems to be improving. Still just thinking here first 5 under? Maybe Just do not have a good feel for Tanaka now but Yanks on a good day and going well but probably pre umps looking at a first half bet. This could change with more trends.

 

[tuck321]

Jose Fernandez is very simple. Lifetime he is 6-0 on 6+ with an ERA of 1.38 based on 52 innings. Jose just gets better and better last 2 months of the season. 4-8 road record with an ERA of 3.93. 4.91 ERA at the site. Philadelphia 6-14 last 20 at home. 2 starts at Philadelphia one vs Hamels 7 innings no runs
one vs Burnett 4 innings 6 runs. No strong conviction that Morgan is actually a good pitcher.
Marlins 4-6 this year vs lefties on the road

 

[tuck321]

Jordan Zimmerman career 11-7 on 3.18 ERA
This season.41 ERA based on 22 innings on 6+
Kershaw poor this season on 1 game on 6+ but career 2.05 ERA based on 136.1 innings and Washington fairly weak line up

 

[tuck321]

FYI Arizona has lost 3 games in a row which normally puts them on the clock to play.

 

[tuck321]

Drew on 6+ career 3-1 3.62 ERA 6;16 ERA vs Tampa
Jake this season on 6+ 12 innings 0 runs 2.77 ERA at site
Career on 6+ 4.45 ???

 

[tuck321]

Volquez on 4 5-0 with a 3.81 ERA 2.34 day ERA
Jeff is difficult. Last year on 6+ he had an ERA of 1.50 based on 36 innings. if you look at last 10 for both he simply blows Volquez away with 7 out of 10 high quality starts and 1 decent start 7 innings 4 runs. Meanwhile Volquez has a fair number of decent starts with 2 high quality road games but has been popped in 2 of his last 3 games vs CS and Jeff has an ERA over 9 in 2 6+ plus games and WS are 7-3 last 10 while KC is 8-2 in 10 games all at home. Pick your poison. Not much doubt Jeff is the better pitcher now but no idea what to do. KC is very good after a day off and I do not remember CS

 

[tuck321]

I think Philadelphia is 3-12 last 15 and just waiting for the season to end. Any price at minus 50 cents should probably be considered CHEAP but I am willing to hear disagreement from people who tend to make sense.

 

[tuck321]

McHugh is fairly average on 6+. From what I have read the Texas pitcher has not been good but that info is not solid. I need more input. Springer was around for the Houston home run. The team needs some help before I am anxious to bet but that could change based on new info. The fact that Washington is playing off a day off is Strong for that side.

 

[Play2win]

Nats and Royals both good after off days, GL Tuck

 

[tuck321]

C J Wilson has been decent on 6+ in the past. This season 13.2 innings .66 ERA

 

[GWarner27]

Jose Fernandez is very simple. Lifetime he is 6-0 on 6+ with an ERA of 1.38 based on 52 innings. Jose just gets better and better last 2 months of the season. 4-8 road record with an ERA of 3.93. 4.91 ERA at the site. Philadelphia 6-14 last 20 at home. 2 starts at Philadelphia one vs Hamels 7 innings no runs
one vs Burnett 4 innings 6 runs. No strong conviction that Morgan is actually a good pitcher.
Marlins 4-6 this year vs lefties on the road

at the risk of repeating myself, Fernandez has a different elbow ligament

 

[tuck321]

You repeating yourself. Amazing thought.

 

[tuck321]

Teheran 8-2 lifetime on 6+
1 case this season i believe 1.50 ERA 1-0 6 innings
Last season 1-1 20 innings 2.25 ERA
Something of a problem. He is 4-0 vs Cubs and has twice won at Cubs. Not a game the Cubs take lightly.
Hendricks however on 6+ has a career ERA of 2-2 4.50 ERA

 

[tuck321]

I believe Mets pitcher last 2 games who was poor on 6+ has pitched 2 6+ games in a row going 14 innings and 2 runs and 1 game on 5 giving up 1 run in 8. Still not winning. Dodgers insanity does not compare with the absolute determination of Cards to win this game but it does point to the under.
116 pitches last start. The most of his career.

 

[tuck321]

Could not get into this thread for a while. Sony Gray is 7-1 on 4 with a tiny ERA. Ervin on 6+ is 5 games to the good with a around 3 ERA. This season 1 game 2.25 ERA.
Regarding Jose---I am no doctor but will ride that trend till it breaks assuming no hopeless ump or major trend.

 

[tuck321]

Just read an interesting article in Ultimate Astro's. based on it I will play them. ? How. Good question.

 

[tuck321]

Reading some strong trends for Minn Friday.
Oakland stinks on Friday and Oakland is 2-9 after shutting out a team this season.

 

[edou1x]

SDG-COL O6,5??: total is a complete joke, i mean petco shifting to a hitter friendly park lately, both SP allowed 18 runs combined in 4 starts, +2 bad bullpens (ERA>4,00)
this total should be 8/8,5 i can see final score between 8-10 runs. wait for the ump but think will pound the over:cheers3:

 

[tuck321]

Will look at it today. Few Days angles. Angels 10-4. Cubs 4-10. Reds 5-8. KC 9-5. Twins 7-7. Tampa 8-6. Braves 6-8 Phillies 4-10. Arizona 8-6, Mets 6-8. I am currently a little biased vs KC but may have to make at least a small bet on them. Obviously on Angels Still trying to understand the Cubs love

 

[tuck321]

Likely to stay with Miami. Will do some looking but Philadelphia is simply a dead team currently and the Money odds look small to me. Just closing your eyes and betting against them is percentage action.
Cards will play obviously as well.

 

[tuck321]

Just 1 stat. Philadelphia at NIGHT 18-41. No other team in baseball is even close

 

[Gyno]

does anyone actually care about all these small sample sizes??

does anyone actually care about stats that involve pitchers/teams who had a completely different rotation, lineup, BP than that of 2014 and prior? Boggles my mind that anyone finds these stats relevant. a 10 game sample is an extremely small sample size.

If I flip a coin 10 times right now and it lands on heads 8 times and 2 on tails does that mean anything? Does that mean that it is more likely to land hands on the next flip?

Try flipping that coin 500 times, guaranteed it meets a lot more in the middle. Likely 48-52% on each side.

 

[tuck321]

in answer to the question. YES. if you do not---------they say there are job openings. i just saw Tampa at plus 33. Any idea why?

 

[bloodhound]

Thanks tuck, good info, hope u have time to keep it going. I like all types of stats.

btw: Do U play the games that U looked at??

 

[mrpickem]

halos

• as a home favorite of -125 to -150
• 11-3 This season | 32-27 Last 3 season
• at home when the total is 8 to 8.5
• 12-4 This season | 76-43 Last 3 seasons
• in July games
• 7-3 This season | 35-26 Last 3 seasons
• when playing on Friday
• 10-4 This season | 41-25 Last 3 season
• against left-handed starters
• 14-8 This season | 62-56 Last 3 seasons

sox

• as a road underdog of +100 to +125
• 7-13 This season | 36-35 Last 3 seasons
• against left-handed starters
• 9-12 This season | 66-62 Last 3 season

 

[Gyno]

Guess if I could just save one person from enemy info I've done my job.