Friday discussion

redbearde · Jun 21, 2007

Connecticut at Indiana.

Last time Connecticut was an 8pt fave at home. Indiana beat the shit out of em by 19 pts. But that was last year. This year Connecticut was an 8pt dog at Detroit. Seems to me we can figure on an Indiana -7 to -9 line. If it's much less than that, I guess I'll have to give that one some thought...

Fever are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Fever are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games.

San Antonio at New York

Last time (June 16th) San Antonio was a 7.5 pt fave at home. Silver Stars won (and barely covered) 79-71. So I'd expect to see something like New York -2 or so. I think it ought to be a pk...we'll see what it shows up as.

Liberty are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.
Liberty are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

Seattle at Minnesota

Last time (June 9th) Seattle was a 10.5 pt fave at home. Storm won 90-76. Again, last line seemed good, so I'd expect to see the Storm as a tiny fave (-1 or -2). Not sure it'll go that way because Minny's been a bit better recently, especially ATS...

Storm are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games.
Storm are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
Lynx are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Lynx are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Friday games.

Washington at Houston

Shitfest. Not sure if I care. Whoever is the dog should get our attention.

Mystics are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
Comets are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
Comets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games.

one thing we can consider...

Over is 8-1 in HOU last 9 home games.
Over is 9-3 in WAS last 12 road games.

I'd love to see a mid 140s total...

Detroit at Phoenix

Clearly Detroit will be favored. Clearly Phoenix can score. Clearly Detroit can score -with- Phoenix. Last meeting was last year, and Phoenix won. In fact, Phoenix won the last 3 meetings. However, Phoenix has been extremely up and down this year...they even managed to score over 100pts and lose against Washington. I would expect to see a small Detroit fave (-3 or -4)

Shock are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Shock are 1-6-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
Mercury are 3-5 ATS in their last 8 games.

anxiously waiting for Blitz's (infinitely better than mine) line guesses.

:smiley_acbe:

BlitzBandit · Jun 21, 2007

I was just about to make the thread when I saw this... good stuff red...

I just adjusted my power rankings.. again... so I'm kinda worried I may be off on a couple by a half point or so. Hopefully not though.. lol. After looking at your projections, I'm glad to say that I think we are thinking very much alike... really good stuff...

btw.. you forgot to throw in your thoughts on the Sacramento @ LA game...

okay... so here's what I got...

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=12 width=293 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=bottom width="68%" height=0>Connecticut

</TD><TD vAlign=bottom width="32%" height=0>8

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=bottom width="68%" height=0>Indiana

</TD><TD vAlign=bottom width="32%" height=0>-8

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=bottom width="68%" height=0>

</TD><TD vAlign=bottom width="32%" height=0>

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=bottom width="68%" height=0>San Antonio

</TD><TD vAlign=bottom width="32%" height=0>2

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=bottom width="68%" height=0>New York

</TD><TD vAlign=bottom width="32%" height=0>-2

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=bottom width="68%" height=0>

</TD><TD vAlign=bottom width="32%" height=0>

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=bottom width="68%" height=0>Seattle

</TD><TD vAlign=bottom width="32%" height=0>-2.5

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=bottom width="68%" height=0>Minnesota

</TD><TD vAlign=bottom width="32%" height=0>2.5

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=bottom width="68%" height=0>

</TD><TD vAlign=bottom width="32%" height=0>

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=bottom width="68%" height=0>Washington

</TD><TD vAlign=bottom width="32%" height=0>-1

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=bottom width="68%" height=0>Houston

</TD><TD vAlign=bottom width="32%" height=0>1

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=bottom width="68%" height=0>

</TD><TD vAlign=bottom width="32%" height=0>

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=bottom width="68%" height=0>Detroit

</TD><TD vAlign=bottom width="32%" height=0>-2

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=bottom width="68%" height=0>Phoenix

</TD><TD vAlign=bottom width="32%" height=0>2

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=bottom width="68%" height=0>

</TD><TD vAlign=bottom width="32%" height=0>

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=bottom width="68%" height=0>Sacramento

</TD><TD vAlign=bottom width="32%" height=0>-3

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=bottom width="68%" height=0>Los Angeles

</TD><TD vAlign=bottom width="32%" height=0>3

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

BlitzBandit · Jun 21, 2007

wow man... I was just reading over your stuff again and I think saying we are thinking alike was an understatement... lol...

we are pretty much right on with each other on everything...

something tells me we are not going to get much line value on the spreads come Friday.

redbearde · Jun 21, 2007

we may well not get any value....I'm hoping for a shorter number at Indiana.

regarding LA and Sacramento...can't believe I forgot that one. Musta been my wife's fault.

Alright, they played on June 2nd in Sacramento. Queens were 4.5pt faves at home. The Sparks' Holdsclaw played almost 32 minutes, went 5 for 13, 1 for 1 from 3pt, 5 of 6 FTs, 5 rebs (4 offensive), 3 assists, 2 steals, and 7 turnovers.

This would say to me something along the lines of Sacramento -2.5 or -3. But considering the loss of a key forward in Holdsclaw, and the Sparks' recent tendency to turn the ball over more than 20 times per game...I'm thinking the line might be more like -4.

Still, I'll likely be on the monarchs.

Some things to note...on June 2, the Sparks shot 9 of 13 from 3pt range. That's an incredible 69.2% (and 27 points). They won't be repeating that.

Sparks @ Houston: 21 turnovers
Home to Detroit: 11 turnovers
Sparks @ Minnesota: 21 turnovers

I think the lack of assists and massive numbers of turnovers (detroit game notwithstanding) are indicators that the sparks losses are catching up with them. Between Leslie and Holdsclaw not handling the interior and Johnson's bum knee, shots aren't falling, and opposing big chyks are getting as many steals as the guards.

Tina Thompson(F) had 3 steals last night.
Hamchetou Maiga-Ba(G) had 4 steals.
Michelle Snow(C) had 2 steals...not to mention shooting 9 of 13 and pulling down 9 rebs.

I focus on the steals (and turnover differential) because that was the big difference in the Sparks last couple losses.

it'll be interesting to see where the line comes out.

BlitzBandit · Jun 21, 2007

Actual lines from Bookmaker..

CONN SUN ( +10 )
INDY FEVER ( -10 )

SA SILVER STARS (+2 )
NY LIBERTY ( -2 )

SEA STORM ( -1.5 )
MIN LYNX ( +1.5 )

WASH MYSTICS ( +1 )
HOU COMETS ( -1 )

DET SHOCK ( -3.5 )
PHO MERCURY ( +3.5 )

SAC MONARCHS ( -4.5 )
LA SPARKS ( +4.5 )

BlitzBandit · Jun 21, 2007

here's what I've got for value...

<TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Fri 6/22</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>601</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Connecticut Sun</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +9 -105 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+400 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 150.5 -105 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 04:00 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>602</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Indiana Fever <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -9 -105 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-440 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 150.5 -105 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=12 width=516 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=bottom width="39%" height=0>
</TD><TD vAlign=bottom width="18%" height=0>

My Line