Friday Discussion

[BlitzBandit]

Anyone up for discussing Fridays' games??


some interesting matchups...


Indiana seems dominant at home regardless who they play and going against them just seems like a sin right now...

Connecticut @ Detroit looks interesting, a rematch from Sunday... Detroit seems to be playing solid, but if the line is more than 5 pts, it should be interesting... they seem to be the type of team that does everything thats needed to win, but blowouts aren't really on their mind.

New York looks like the real deal and I would re-think going against them. Chicago has only won one game at home this season and that was against Minnesota, but their play seems to have improved.




these are the lines I'm projecting... anyone else thinking lines?... wouldn't mind discussing those either...



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Phoenix​

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6.5​

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Indiana​

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-6.5​

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Los Angeles​

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-5​

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Washington​

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5​

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Connecticut​

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6.5​

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</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=bottom width="68%" height=0>

Detroit​

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</TD><TD vAlign=bottom width="32%" height=0>

-6.5​

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New York​

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-2​

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Chicago​

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</TD><TD vAlign=bottom width="32%" height=0>

2​

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Houston​

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9​

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Seattle​

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-9​

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</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>




any thoughts on Friday... let's hear it.

 

[redbearde]

oo oo, pick me!

I rather like your lines.....I think I might personally make Indiana -9 or so at this point. hot DAMN did they look tough as cemented shit last night.

....and Phoenix...wtf are the mercury doing now? Opened up looking pretty good for 3 or 4 games...and then they went to sucking their own dicks. Phoenix not only granted the Mystics their first win, but Washington actually beat the Mercury in each quarter.

So while it's because I'm a big stupid public square, I just have a lot of trouble giving the Mercury even a TD of credit. IF the line is lower than you're suggesting, then I might just have to jump all over that Fever action. Note that Phoenix is 2-4 away from home.

Now...

Los Angeles @ Washington

That'll be an interesting one, but I'm thinking 5 might be a smidge much. I'm thinking we'll see -3.5 or -4 (at least at open) like we did a couple days ago when Washington hosted Indiana. I certainly don't think we should see a higher number than they assigned the Fever...

and of course I'll be on that like stink on shit. The Sparks'll play at least a little bit more defense than the Mercury did.

 

[BlitzBandit]

let me just start by saying... you picked a helluva day to stay away from these games maestro... I wish I could have been that smart...

:bow:


I'm still pondering that 29-4 second quarter score in the Indiana/Seattle game... lol..


so now... back to business...

Extremely great observation you have on Phoenix having problems with Minny and Washington. But 9 pts?... hmm.. seems a bit much, but honestly... even with that kind of line I still wouldn't take Phoenix. Like you said... Indy looked solid as hell last night. Shit.. they've looked that way all season at home. But I agree, any lower than 7 may definitely be worth jumping on.

You may be right with the LA line... I'm still treating them as if they still have Holdsclaw. That has to be considered as a big void there.

Seattle really disappointed me last night as well. I think at the end of the season, they are going to look like last season. Enough wins to get into the playoffs, but nothing fancy. They look so disappointing sometimes when you consider the talent on that team.

Detroit is still undefeated... think Connecticut can get through that?? I'm thinking Detroit will win and cover this time. Unlike Seattle, they know how to utilize their talent... and they have lots of it.

To this day, I'm still having problems riding the New York bandwagon, but I have paid the price enough not to. Seems I may start doing it out of wits and not so much out of free will. Just seems I don't want to believe in them, but I'd be stupid not to.. lol.

 

[redbearde]

I actually had the under in the nightcap....I love getting my IC tailing plays in before he posts...hehehehe...

I would leave the Liberty and Sky alone. Chicago's way too damned unpredictable, and I love your road team -2 as being spot on...it's the perfect number granting no leverage either way......

With Detroit and Connecticut, I think you're right. Maybe the Sun were looking ahead, though, on Wednesday? Connecticut beat the Mercury down when Phoenix was still winning and confident.

I think perhaps Indiana SHOULD be a DD fave or so....not thinking the linesmen will put it there by any means, but I think the relative play over, say, the last 3 games each team dictates an extremely lopsided Indiana win.

Only chance otherwise would be if Phoenix shoots 50-60% from 3pt range.

and then, well, the Mercury will win.

what the hell is wrong with us being up so late at night...?

 

[BlitzBandit]

I actually had the under in the nightcap....I love getting my IC tailing plays in before he posts...hehehehe...

that's right... I forgot you had that... congrats...

With Detroit and Connecticut, I think you're right. Maybe the Sun were looking ahead, though, on Wednesday? Connecticut beat the Mercury down when Phoenix was still winning and confident.

good point.. but then again.. Detroit is NOT Connecticut.. at least... I don't think they are.. lol.

what the hell is wrong with us being up so late at night...?

I don't know... seems I can never sleep... I always go to bed around 4 to 5 am... and wake up by 8 am or so... I don't know... maybe I'm an insomniac... I hope that's not your case... lol.

 

[redbearde]

oh yeah, I've actually had several nights this week I simply didn't sleep.


...I hate that.

 

[shakes]

I dont get the Mercury. They go into Sacramento where they don't do well history and beat the Monarchs, who had a nice streak there, and then waltz into Washington and lose the way they did.

 

[redbearde]

Lines are out.

Sparks are -2 most places, -1.5 at thegreek.

...and the greek actually let me fill my bet...wackyday.

SO....

the numbers as I currently see them at Greek and then Bookmaker's only difference is they have the Shock at -8 already. Expect the others to get there and beyond soon.

Mystics +2
Fever -8.5
Shock -7.5
Sky pk
Storm -10.5

Not sure what to make of the Liberty and Sky at a pick. While I think that's some significant math value, that's just one of those games that the line could have been anywhere around that to -2 and it would be reasonable.....and I just don't know what I want to do with it. So I'll pussy out and do nothing.

So I'm pretty happy with LA -1.5 at Washington off a win. Comments anyone?

 

[redbearde]

you know, I didn't even look at totals.

Los Angeles at Washington: 150.5
Phoenix at Indiana: 155
Connecticut at Detroit: 151
New York at Chicago: 142.5
Houston at Seattle: 157.5

only thing that REALLY sticks out to me is that Houston usually manages at least one absolutely shit quarter, and if they do it again, Under 157.5 strikes me as good as it was on Wednesday.

 

[redbearde]

Phoenix and Indiana might do 90-65, might do 70-60, might do 75-76...it really all depends on Phoenix outside shooting.

I'd expect Indiana to defend the perimeter well, and the shooting percentage should be low, but the Fever have been running this year too......that total seems like speculating either way you take it. Good number for the linesmen...

 

[redbearde]

folks are pounding the fuck out of Indiana.

.....................surprise.

 

[BlitzBandit]

finally... some value in these lines...


the linesmen have really had their shit together lately as in the beginning of the season I was getting great value in my lines, but lately, I've been lucky to be a point and a half off on anything...

I like some of these...

I noticed Pinny has the Sky at -1.5... wtf??... I'm thinking that's great value on taking NY...

same with LA... I just anything less than 3 is good value for them... remember... Washington still sucks... lol.

Indiana is a bit high, but damn.. I just don't think I can go against them at home.

Detroit is one point higher than I expected.. I don't consider anything value if it is not at least 1.5 pts off... so No Value... plus I don't think I can go against Detroit at home either.

Seattle is a little too rich for my blood at 10.5 right now considering how they looked last night.. but then again, playing Houston at home is not the same as playing Indy on the road... lol.


good observations red... that LA game looks tasty... lol.

 

[redbearde]

Thanks man...I'm getting a bit more confident thanks to your tutelage.

I'm on LA for tomorrow....not sure I'll be on anything else. Though if I can get the Liberty as a dog, I'll probably do it.

 

[BlitzBandit]

Thanks man...I'm getting a bit more confident thanks to your tutelage.

I'm on LA for tomorrow....not sure I'll be on anything else. Though if I can get the Liberty as a dog, I'll probably do it.

hey now.. I'm learning as much from you as you are from me...

:shake:


btw...

I thinking the same way for tomorrow... but since I've been 5-8 the last 13 plays... I'd be careful if I were you... lol.