Friday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Sep 2 Fri 2022

05:35 PM
929Toronto Blue JaysA. Manoah -R-240O 8
-125
930Pittsburgh PiratesJ. Oviedo -R+216U 8
+105
06:05 PM
915Oakland AthleticsJ. Sears -L+1½
-140		+148O 8
-115
916Baltimore OriolesD. Kremer -R-1½
+120		-160U 8
-105
06:10 PM
917Texas RangersD. Keuchel -L+1½
-125		+163O 9½
-125
918Boston Red SoxN. Pivetta -R-1½
+105		-177U 9½
+105
06:10 PM
919Seattle MarinersL. Castillo -R-1½
+125		-136O 7½
+100
920Cleveland GuardiansZ. Plesac -R+1½
-145		+126U 7½
-120
06:10 PM
921Kansas City RoyalsD. Lynch -L+1½
-215		-102O 8½
-110
922Detroit TigersD. Hutchinson -R-1½
+185		-108U 8½
-110
06:10 PM
923New York YankeesD. German -R+1½
-195		+117O 7
-120
924Tampa Bay RaysJ. Springs -L-1½
+170		-127U 7
+100
07:10 PM
925Minnesota TwinsS. Gray -R-1½
+130		-128O 8½
+105
926Chicago White SoxD. Martin -R+1½
-150		+118U 8½
-125
07:15 PM
907Chicago CubsA. Sampson -R+1½
-110		+212O 8
-110
908St. Louis CardinalsJ. Montgomery -L-1½
-110		-235U 8
-110
08:38 PM
927Houston AstrosL. McCullers -R-1½
+105		-155O 8
-115
928Los Angeles AngelsR. Detmers -L+1½
-125		+143U 8
-105
08:40 PM
909Milwaukee BrewersE. Lauer -L-1½
+135		-111O 8½
-120
910Arizona DiamondbacksZ. Davies -R+1½
-155		+101U 8½
+100
09:10 PM
911San Diego PadresY. Darvish -R+1½
-145		+144O 7½
-120
912Los Angeles DodgersD. May -R-1½
+125		-156U 7½
+100
09:15 PM
913Philadelphia PhilliesK. Gibson -R+1½
-240		-106O 8
+100
914San Francisco GiantsA. Cobb -R-1½
+200		-104U 8
-120
 
it should be Red Sox turn to knock around a crappy lefty. Unfortunately we don’t get the easily attainable 1.5, lol. I don’t think it matter, Sox will prob run kuechal by the 3-4 inning! Faded him 1st start back and feel like we should prob fade this washed up stiff every chance we get till he gone again!
 
chipnotized said:
Royals/Tigers Under for me.
Click to expand...

You just fading the offenses? I kinda like lynch but I think tigers lineup sets up pretty decent against lhp. I don’t like much of anything bout Hutchison. Mfer barely fans more than he walks. I don’t need my pitcher to punch out everyone but can’t be walking 3-4 per 9 if you pitch to contact.
 
2daBank said:
You just fading the offenses? I kinda like lynch but I think tigers lineup sets up pretty decent against lhp. I don’t like much of anything bout Hutchison. Mfer barely fans more than he walks. I don’t need my pitcher to punch out everyone but can’t be walking 3-4 per 9 if you pitch to contact.
Click to expand...
Yep, purely a fade of the offenses...especially Detroit.

On the flip side, we should be pounding the Over in the Rangers/Red Sox series...decent bats and poor pitching on both sides, plus it's at Fenway.
 
chipnotized said:
Yep, purely a fade of the offenses...especially Detroit.

On the flip side, we should be pounding the Over in the Rangers/Red Sox series...decent bats and poor pitching on both sides, plus it's at Fenway.
Click to expand...

I’ll prob just switch to Sox team total in this one. Pivetta could blank texas
 
2daBank said:
I’ll prob just switch to Sox team total in this one. Pivetta could blank texas
Click to expand...
Pinny hung the Boston FF TT at 2.5 -145 to the Over.

I'm going full game Over 5.5...if they do get a few off Keuchel early, I'm not too worried about the Rangers pen locking things down :)
 
chipnotized said:
Pinny hung the Boston FF TT at 2.5 -145 to the Over.

I'm going full game Over 5.5...if they do get a few off Keuchel early, I'm not too worried about the Rangers pen locking things down :)
Click to expand...

I was kinda thinking same thing, once I get some coffee up in me I’ll start figuring out.
 
Man, I kinda love Rays Ff tt ov1.5, they hit German before his injury and after, he don’t like the trop, and rays have a top 5ish ops the last few weeks. Yes please!
 
I’ll post rest my card when i get home, already on the road just wanted to put that one out there , I’m shocked it so cheap, mighg wanna grab as that juice should go up!!
 
damn. Judging by amount of ppl who have viewed this thread compared to usual id say lot of guys dumped bases for ncaa this week! I tried to convince them, and since that day I said not to jump ship I don’t think I’ve missed a mlb play! What more ya need to be convinced to stick w this sport?!? Not like ya gotta watch it!! I rarely do! Lol. Tonight’s ncaa card isn’t even very good! 2marro I would understand but cmon! Anyways here what I got so far:

Tampa Ff tt ov1.5
Tampa ff tt ov1.5/balty ml +195
Oak Ff tt u1.5
Cubs Ff tt u1.5
Cobb ov 4.5 k’s
Darvish ov 5.5 k’s
 
Maybe I’ll be kicking myself later but I decided to pass on the Red Sox team totals, I just have a bad feeling bout it, I think they get 3 in Ff against kuechal, I think they score 6+ for game but they ov5.5 was actually plus money which I found odd cause anyone who looks at this will come to conclusion it gonna be high scoring! When I often mention playing mlb overs not my best attribute it cause in years past I woulda been all over this one! It just screams high scoring in such a obvious way! I’ve thought bout it all night and drive to casino and I decided I can pass and live with it if they end up hanging a huge number, more so than I can live with watching it sneak under (prob with runners stranded all over the bases!) and losing money, there other plays I like more and trusting my instincts has mostly paid off. I hope im
A dumbass and everyone who plays it cashes!
 
I don’t usually get involved with the ff team totals, but I know you’ve had success with them 2. I’ll tail a few. GL to us.
 
I didht dig real deep into how often Philly been striking out lately, fact of the matter is imo Cobb should be a 5.5 in most any matchup, especially at home where his record might not be pretty but his k/bb, ops allowed, era, k/9 all better! He has fanned 5+ in 7 of his last 8, the one exception was at coors which I put no stock into! long as he pitches 5+ I see no reason he won’t his this, he has pitched at least 5 innings in all but 2 starts if you throw out 1st 2 of this shortened spring season which I do for everyone.
 
askias said:
I don’t usually get involved with the ff team totals, but I know you’ve had success with them 2. I’ll tail a few. GL to us.
Click to expand...

If you gonna just play 1 of them make it the rays over. I love these things man, probably cause they very generic numbers! More often than not they 1.5 or 2.5, don’t gotta worry bout pens or manager decisions. Another one these things I can’t believe I just learned about this year! Lol
 
Just betting pizza money so happy to spread around. Had some fun betting football last night so taking it easy today. Still tilted from really misplaying the Atl-Col series, so I’ve gone really small on bet size to compensate.
 
Yu another number I think a k short, He has fanned 6+ in 10 of last 11! We can pretty much pencil him in to go 6+ innings every time out and while on the season he not quite fanning a k per inning he has been well over that the last couple months!

I think he getting dodgers In a pretty good spot with them just coming home from a east coast trip, every one of those the 1st game home the opposing pitcher has fanned 6+! The only exception I found was a long trip back in May where their 1st game back was against a crappy pirates starter. However dodgers ended that trip in Arizona so while it was a long trip they had already gotten back acclimated w the time zone before coming home. Plus they faced a low k pitcher who did still manage 4k’s in 5 innings of work and held them to 2 runs. Im not saying they won’t score, they have had mixed results in that area in this spot but striking out quite a bit been fairly consistent.

I actually did lean pads, getting +140 on Yu is tempting. The problem for me is I’d prefer 1st 5 but Darvish often gives up a few earlier on but then locks it down for 7 innings! I never made a 7 inning bet but now that I’m talking bout it that exactly where I would look w pads as you should get all Darvish start while seeing May and one dodgers middle inning guys opposed to their best! That makes a ton of sense here! If I find some football I want to bet I might just make a 7 inning play on pads+130, I like that!
 
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askias said:
Just betting pizza money so happy to spread around. Had some fun betting football last night so taking it easy today. Still tilted from really misplaying the Atl-Col series, so I’ve gone really small on bet size to compensate.
Click to expand...

I got my ass kicked on props but hit every ncaa side and total I played, along w sweeping the mlb card turned out pretty good (enough so I l probably threw away 100 bucks on Serena winning the us Open, dunno why I waited till she looked great and got crappy odds but after watching her the other night couldn’t resist!). Good thing I stayed diverse even tho lot of work!!!! I didn’t like tonight ncaa card, did you?
 
2daBank said:
Maybe I’ll be kicking myself later but I decided to pass on the Red Sox team totals, I just have a bad feeling bout it, I think they get 3 in Ff against kuechal, I think they score 6+ for game but they ov5.5 was actually plus money which I found odd cause anyone who looks at this will come to conclusion it gonna be high scoring! When I often mention playing mlb overs not my best attribute it cause in years past I woulda been all over this one! It just screams high scoring in such a obvious way! I’ve thought bout it all night and drive to casino and I decided I can pass and live with it if they end up hanging a huge number, more so than I can live with watching it sneak under (prob with runners stranded all over the bases!) and losing money, there other plays I like more and trusting my instincts has mostly paid off. I hope im
A dumbass and everyone who plays it cashes!
Click to expand...
I did a double take when I bet the Bos TT O 5.5 +105, but I'm not overthinking it.

I've noticed some market chicanery in years past in baseball once football fires up...this series might be an example.
 
2daBank said:
damn. Judging by amount of ppl who have viewed this thread compared to usual id say lot of guys dumped bases for ncaa this week! I tried to convince them, and since that day I said not to jump ship I don’t think I’ve missed a mlb play! What more ya need to be convinced to stick w this sport?!? Not like ya gotta watch it!! I rarely do! Lol. Tonight’s ncaa card isn’t even very good! 2marro I would understand but cmon! Anyways here what I got so far:

Tampa Ff tt ov1.5
Tampa ff tt ov1.5/balty ml +195
Oak Ff tt u1.5
Cubs Ff tt u1.5
Cobb ov 4.5 k’s
Darvish ov 5.5 k’s
Click to expand...
Will tail the K props. Also playing Cobb and Darvish ML as well as Detmers. May add Rays
 
2daBank said:
I got my ass kicked on props but hit every ncaa side and total I played, along w sweeping the mlb card turned out pretty good (enough so I l probably threw away 100 bucks on Serena winning the us Open, dunno why I waited till she looked great and got crappy odds but after watching her the other night couldn’t resist!). Good thing I stayed diverse even tho lot of work!!!! I didn’t like tonight ncaa card, did you?
Click to expand...
We're on opposite wavelengths today banker...I've got Tamjlonovic over Serena tonight. In my experience, Aussies like to play the villain.

I'll be joining you on the Rays and A's FF plays though...I've seen German pitch in Fla.
Can't understand why the A's are shaded to the FF Over?
 
chipnotized said:
I did a double take when I bet the Bos TT O 5.5 +105, but I'm not overthinking it.

I've noticed some market chicanery in years past in baseball once football fires up...this series might be an example.
Click to expand...

Could be, if I didn’t feel so good about my other plays I woulda took the plunge. That and like I said over the years mlb overs have been much tougher for me than unders and it most def games like this where I played them! I actually had +110 to the over 5.5. That felt all kinds of wrong especially with the steep juice on Ff ov 2.5. The 1st 5 team totals have made my overs much better than simply full game! It just seems so obvious kuechal gets blasted again, of course i thought it did his 1st start also and it was! I’m a bit torn, I told myself I’m good passing but I also told myself to fade Kuechal as much as possible cause ain’t gonna get many more chances till the league done with him! Im all kinds of twisted on that game so whatever, passing can’t be the wrong thing! Lol. Hope I’m being dumb and you hit easy!
 
chipnotized said:
We're on opposite wavelengths today banker...I've got Tamjlonovic over Serena tonight. In my experience, Aussies like to play the villain.

I'll be joining you on the Rays and A's FF plays though...I've seen German pitch in Fla.
Can't understand why the A's are shaded to the FF Over?
Click to expand...

Oh. I don’t know shit bout tennis really, just like golf I only pay attention at all in the majors, I’m square and bet joker all the time, or in this case after watching Serena the other night falling for it. I didn’t want to bet enough on her tonight having to risk more than I was comfy to win enough to care! So I took what I’m sure are terrible odds way lower than start of tourney (+1100) just cause I could feel the magic the other night!!

I prob wouldn’t have done it if her and sister didn’t get bounced in doubles, dunno what her old ass thinking? No way she has the stamina for that! So tonight worries me just cause of that! If she gets thru this one I’ll feel a lot better when she gets day off in between!! I never heard the chick she playing tonight bro, I’m sure you making way sharper tennis plays than myself! My only logic was no way will she lose if she can make it to QRTRS! I just think at that point it too electric and destiny!! I will say that 3rd set the other night I thought the other chick played pretty strongly and Serena was just awesome, if she can keep up that level I dunno why she couldn’t win? Half the chicks she will face won’t be able to handle atmosphere/moment.
 
chipnotized said:
We're on opposite wavelengths today banker...I've got Tamjlonovic over Serena tonight. In my experience, Aussies like to play the villain.

I'll be joining you on the Rays and A's FF plays though...I've seen German pitch in Fla.
Can't understand why the A's are shaded to the FF Over?
Click to expand...

I don’t either? I like Kremer, I worry more bout O’s offense being flat than him vs this suspect lineup. Freaking Espino just held them to 1 run thru 5!! I really wanted to play Kremer k prop but I’ve noticed about him he capable of missing bats but against the crappy lineups he seems much more inclined to pitch to contact. His k’s usually up against the better slugging teams but against the pirates, rays, royals of the world he lets them hit it to his defense.
 
4.5 at even money on Kremer very tempting. I did make him a flat 5 and think fangraphs has him a shade over 5 also. I just thought it was interesting how he often has lower k totals vs lineups im sure have bottom the league ops. Not sure if that random or he really notices he can pitch to contact vs them and not worry about the kind of damage the better lineups will do if he does that? Or it could be those teams had guys on the bases and he needed the k’s to prevent runs, that would make more sense.
 
Vap'sBack said:
People leaving baseball for college football has been happening since CTG started brother!
Click to expand...

I get it. Most years I slow way down with baseball by august, take a break before football. Baseball is quite the everyday grind, it can wear on ya!! plus I feel like things I been cashing w the entire 1st half start getting tougher as books have more data. This year all the new kinda bets I been making kept me going! When I said I was gonna be slowing down to take break and start prepping for FB it lasted like a day or 2!! Im way too hot with bases to ball! If it means more work with doing football as well so be it!!!!
 
I really thought todays football card sucked anyways! Now 2marro a different story, tons of good games!!
 
I was somewhat torn between the cubs Ff tt u1.5 and Montgomery ov 4.5 k’s, he been a strikeout machine since coming here and his swinging strike is really strong. Oddly enough it been the yanks and Braves he didn’t punch out at least 5 against since coming here, those 2 both fan a lot! He stuck out 7 in a dominate complete game 1 hitter at wrigley but obviously he pitched 9 innings to get that. After cashing on Braves Ff tt over against him I gotta admit he really wasn’t bad in that game, he just ran into trouble in 4th and got tagged for a 3 run bomb, other than Olson, Riley, D’arnoud he handled rest the lineup!! Cubs don’t have any hitters on their level let alone 3 in a row!!!!! He has only walked 4 in 5 starts for cards so not much chance of a walk and then blast beating us, while I like the k prop the juice was super high and I feel equally as good he bounces back and shuts scrubbies down for 5+ innings!
 
I havnt played it yet and can’t believe I’m saying it but pirates Ff tt ov1.5 +120 kinda tempting. They have a bunch of lefty hitters or switch hitters to throw at manoah and he still has yet to figure out the best way to attack them, lefties sporting a ops above .700 vs him while righties have a putrid .489 ops vs him this year!!! Pirates only have 2 guys hittting from right side in lineup tonight! His home/away splits are pretty drastic also, it just comes down to trusting a crappy pirates lineup! Lol
 
I’m not sure if cubs/cards will even get played, raining now and calling for chance of rain most the night, I could see this turning into a double dip over weekend.
 
Speaking of god awful lineups, anyone see the fish lineup for tonight? Not one guy w more than 7 bombs! Then you look at Braves lineup and only one guy with 100+ AB’s don’t have double digit homers. Lol.
 
Kinda surprised fish don’t have another .5 team total! There is a lot of juice to go under 1.5 tho!
 
Hell, I’ll prob be watching Serena tonight before even football, can’t miss that! I so hope she wins it all!
 
2daBank said:
Hell, I’ll prob be watching Serena tonight before even football, can’t miss that! I so hope she wins it all!
Click to expand...
I have 22-1 on Garcia to win it all and they would meet in the quarters. Unless Garcia falls down a flight of steps and sprains her entire body she should mop Arthur Ashe with Serena.
 
but pretty cool that ksimp is there tonight. Atmosphere is gonna be nuts. I would sell and go another day but can't diminish Friday night in NY like this
 
KJ said:
I have 22-1 on Garcia to win it all and they would meet in the quarters. Unless Garcia falls down a flight of steps and sprains her entire body she should mop Arthur Ashe with Serena.
Click to expand...

I dunno shit bout tennis but if Serena gets to the qrtrs I like her chances. All the women sketchy, any of them capable of being overwhelmed by the moment/scene. Serena played pretty damn good the other night, I’m scared for her today, dunno why the hell she would attempt to play doubles also? I mean I know why but her old ass needs the day off!
 
2daBank said:
I dunno shit bout tennis but if Serena gets to the qrtrs I like her chances. All the women sketchy, any of them capable of being overwhelmed by the moment/scene. Serena played pretty damn good the other night, I’m scared for her today, dunno why the hell she would attempt to play doubles also? I mean I know why but her old ass needs the day off!
Click to expand...
I think it's telling that she signed up for doubles...if she thought she had a real chance of taking the singles title, I don't think she would have.
 
chipnotized said:
I think it's telling that she signed up for doubles...if she thought she had a real chance of taking the singles title, I don't think she would have.
Click to expand...

Yea, I was kinda saying same thing to my old lady who kinda getting pissy w me for “wasting” the money, lol. Normally she don’t get involved w my gambling it stresses her out. But, could be she starting to think she has a better chance than she thought! So glad they lost the double match! This chick tonight just bout done, she don’t got the game for her! No serve.
 
wtf did tsmpa do? So it said Arozarena got infield hit but somehow Ramirez got thrown out at home and Arozarena ended up at 3rd? Dude realky tried to score from 2nd after a bad throw? Should have been 2nd and 3rd, next guy up got a hit but instead of 2 runs only got the 1. Ugh. Freaking 8-9-1 for rays jn 5th, gonna have to get one of 8-9 on for any chance.
 
Then fucking Kremer gives up 2 in 5th, 2nd 3rd no outs he gets the next 2 without a run then walks the 9 hitter then a 2 out hit. Unreal. Sucks his k prop cashed also, I was torn between those 2.
 
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