Friday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Jun 17 Fri 2022

02:20 PM
903Atlanta BravesC. Morton -R-175O 8
-110
904Chicago CubsK. Thompson -R+161U 8
-110
06:05 PM
915Tampa Bay RaysS. Baz -R-145O 8½
-125
916Baltimore OriolesD. Kremer -R+134U 8½
+105
06:40 PM
905Milwaukee BrewersE. Lauer -L-115O 9
-120
906Cincinnati RedsH. Greene -R+105U 9
+100
07:05 PM
909San Francisco GiantsC. Rodon -L-193O 7½
-130
910Pittsburgh PiratesZ. Thompson -R+177U 7½
+110
07:10 PM
919Texas RangersJ. Gray -R-105O 7½
-117
920Detroit TigersT. Skubal -L-105U 7½
-103
07:10 PM
927St. Louis CardinalsA. Wainwright -R+100O 9½
-110
928Boston Red SoxM. Wacha -R-110U 9½
-110
08:10 PM
921Chicago White SoxL. Giolito -R+156O 7½
-115
922Houston AstrosF. Valdez -L-169U 7½
-105
08:40 PM
913San Diego PadresM. Gore -L-151O 11½
-120
914Colorado RockiesK. Freeland -L+139U 11½
+100
09:40 PM
929Minnesota TwinsD. Smeltzer -R-124O 9
-110
930Arizona DiamondbacksM. Bumgarner -L+114U 9
-110
10:10 PM
925Los Angeles AngelsM. Lorenzen -R+111O 7½
-115
926Seattle MarinersR. Ray -L-121U 7½
-105
10:10 PM
931Cleveland GuardiansZ. Plesac -R+220O 8
-110
932Los Angeles DodgersC. Kershaw -L-245U 8
-110
 
Kind of want to go over with Braves since Morton is their worst pitcher and they've been scoring a ton of runs, but I know the winds at Wrigley can play havoc with totals. Morton is the MLB leader at 11-1 to the over.
 
Last edited:
VSIN said this morning that the wind in Chicago was blowing in from left field at about 15 MPH. Will watch this one to start and then maybe play live depending on what it looks like.
 
askias said:
VSIN said this morning that the wind in Chicago was blowing in from left field at about 15 MPH. Will watch this one to start and then maybe play live depending on what it looks like.
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Hard game, Thompson simply has no business starting games

Could be a fun one to start with the under then play it live once ATL goes through the lineup. He seems the type that has no business seeing the lineup for a second time.
 
askias said:
Kind of want to go over with Braves since Morton is their worst pitcher and they've been scoring a ton of runs, but I know the winds at Wrigley can play havoc with totals. Morton is the MLB leader at 11-1 to the over.
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when i saw 8 i knew the weather/wind had to have shifted dramatically from the pads series, that sucks, i was thinking braves were gonna score 40 runs this series! i think Morton has always sucked in day games also, i would like to play his k prop over and with the wind coming in it is super tempting but his daytime numbers scare me.
 
Went with the Phillies to get the day rolling. More a play against Adon and his 1-10 record more than anything else.
 
no secret i love Skubal, been banging the drum for him all year but i still dont understand why in gods name tigers are favs? he not gonna get any run support, Gray shouldnt have any problem with what been the worst lineup in baseball, lowest ops this month and lowest ops against rhp. they are just bad, the team meeting inspired them to score 1 stinking run yesterday and apparently the closer missed the meeting as he gave the game away against a lineup who couldnt hit anything until he came in!
 
askias said:
Went with the Phillies to get the day rolling. More a play against Adon and his 1-10 record more than anything else.
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i hate Suarez, some ppl i respect still high on him but i cant ever figure him out. im sure phils will score runs im just not excited bout laying that number on him.. maybe team total over?
 
giolito k prop is interesting today, 5.5 is low for him, he continues to have a bad inning where he gets blown up but he has continued mowing ppl down in the process, he generally looks great till that one inning and he often rebounds and has a few more solid innings, much like Ray tho he runs into trouble and melts down 1 inning almost every game. Houston bats are pretty hot this month sporting a .798 ops and they are not fanning much with a strike out rate around 18%. is that comp level? i recall Lopez was in process of fanning quite a few stros before he took a liner off his wrist and was pulled from the game. Giolito is up there as a elite strike out pitcher sporting a almost 15% swinging strike rate while fanning almost 12 per 9, i think he a play at 5.5 regardless of matchup as the saying goes, good pitching beats good hitting!! He also has a fantastic history vs the stros, holding them to a .610 ops and it only that high thanks to some starts a long ways back, last 2 times he has faced them he has thrown 2 complete games allowing 1 run total while striking out 17 in those 18 innings.. gotta like him to go 6 innings tonight and there no reason to expect any less than 1 k per inning and i think there plenty of upside for more. the top half the stros lineup doesnt fan a ton but again against a elite strike out pitcher they not above it, it that bottom the order where he should do a lot of work in the strikeout department, if he pitches well enough to get 3 cracks at all the guys in bottom half stros lineup you gotta expect he fans them all at least once and prob a few of them multiple times!!
 
phillies get 2 on the board right out the gates. dont think their offense was much a concern here tho, for me the concern is what the fuck will they get from Suarez?
 
KJ said:
Beware of weather in the NE if these guys calling the golf are correct
Click to expand...

i was just getting ready to look into that game, 10.5 for a cards game crazy high but im thinking they know wacha really well and i certainly would think sox can touch up waino.. figured had to be favorable conditions for the hitters for total to be this high! they calling for rain?
 
my score app just shows sunny and wind blowing out which what i expected to see with the dd total..
 
2daBank said:
i was just getting ready to look into that game, 10.5 for a cards game crazy high but im thinking they know wacha really well and i certainly would think sox can touch up waino.. figured had to be favorable conditions for the hitters for total to be this high! they calling for rain?
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They are watching clouds build up over Western Mass at the Open and Brookline is basically Boston
 
KJ said:
They are watching clouds build up over Western Mass at the Open and Brookline is basically Boston
Click to expand...

1st glance over seems like a solid play but as much i hate possible weather delays for pitchers i dont exactly like them for offenses either, games tend to be stale after they sit around for hours.
 
KJ said:
Drowning in tears
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luckily my trust in them waned a lot so i didnt lose too much the last few games.. sucks, i had def decided i liked dubs to win gm7, just wish i woulda been smart bout it and took the plus money in game 6 knowing i coulda chased gm7 instead of continuing the chase from gm5.. i went 4 for 4 to start series then fell apart last 2 games, ultimately im glad boston lost, just wish it didnt cost me money, lol..
 
i dont care how much the wind blowing out in detriot, i still dont see these 2 lineups scoring 4+ runs in 1st 5 innings vs these starters!!
 
Ray is hard to explain, despite the velo drop his swinging strike has remained elite but his k per 9 is down more than 2 per over past years, the drop off seems to be in called strikes as that is the lowest of his career by a wide margin! i would really like to continue picking on laa as they been striking out a ton this month. not sure bout trusting Ray to get 7 tho? his last few starts the k's have vanished but other than the k's his last time out was one his better starts on the year pitching 7 scoreless vs boston.. i think there probably better options tonight.
 
white sox have actually started scoring some runs lately and they get a lefty tonight, albeit a good one. considering gio history vs stros and cws ability to hit lefties the +140 is really tempting tonight. if giolito can just avoid that trash inning they could def pull this out..
 
Lmfao @2daBank it's pouring buckets of rain right now. Right after I watered all the plants. Like big time rain, the satellite isn't even working

It changed like a light switch - even the afternoon news said not to worry about any rain today
 
Over 5.5 times for a million dimes that 2dabank has jerked off with all these strikeouts already in the Chiraq/Braves game since we all know he took those
 
KJ said:
Is it considered dealing when you're pitching to that shitbag offense and the wind is blowing in?

Seems like a little leaguer could deal
Click to expand...

Knew I shoulda played his over k’s but his day numbers worried me
 
Greene ov 6.5 k’s. He has shown massive improvement from that start against milw where he got crushed but still fanned all 7 guys he got out (maybe it was 8! I forget)! Eventually he gonna fail to cash one of these but im gonna keep riding him till the wheels fall off! Kid has been straight cash and this milw lineup is in a way worse place than last time they faced. It prob is a advantage for milw havin already seen him a few times but I don’t think familiarity gonna matter much against this kid, you can either catch up to his velo and still deal w slider or ya can’t!
 
2daBank said:
Greene ov 6.5 k’s. He has shown massive improvement from that start against milw where he got crushed but still fanned all 7 guys he got out (maybe it was 8! I forget)! Eventually he gonna fail to cash one of these but im gonna keep riding him till the wheels fall off! Kid has been straight cash and this milw lineup is in a way worse place than last time they faced. It prob is a advantage for milw havin already seen him a few times but I don’t think familiarity gonna matter much against this kid, you can either catch up to his velo and still deal w slider or ya can’t!
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Think his over ks and other team first five team total over are likely to both cash at an 80-90% clip lol

We know what he is
 
KJ said:
Think his over ks and other team first five team total over are likely to both cash at an 80-90% clip lol

We know what he is
Click to expand...

I don’t think I’ll be interested in playing opposing tt ovsr. I think kid is closer to being a legit ace than he is a bum. Obviously he still learning but I think he will have just as many good starts as bad rest the way. I’m sure he still get blown up a couple times but when it will happen probably be impossibly hard to guess.
 
2daBank said:
I don’t think I’ll be interested in playing opposing tt ovsr. I think kid is closer to being a legit ace than he is a bum. Obviously he still learning but I think he will have just as many good starts as bad rest the way. I’m sure he still get blown up a couple times but when it will happen probably be impossibly to guess.
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We both know he struggles throwing strikes and when he has to, he either throws one into the stands or right down broadway (or at your helmet)

At least 3 years away from getting 7 innings and no runs from him more often than not
 
Tex/Det Ff under 4 and Gray ov 5.5 k’s

For my money this a better pitching matchup than yesterday where it was 0-0 till bottom the 6th. Texas does hit lhp better than right but Skubal isn’t your average run of mill lefty. I like him to go 6+ and only give up 1-2 runs. Been super high on Gray and it has paid off, his only bad start this month came after a rained out game and he had to go the next day, im willing to let that slide. He posting good numbers and facing what I think the worst offense in baseball right now.
 
KJ said:
We both know he struggles throwing strikes and when he has to, he either throws one into the stands or right down broadway (or at your helmet)

At least 3 years away from getting 7 innings and no runs from him more often than not
Click to expand...

I strongly disagree with that timetable, I think he been improving right before our eyes.
 
KJ said:
If you consistently see his "breaking" ball break you're years beyond me
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I just dunno why ya think it gonna take him 3 years to figure it out? I’ve seen games where his command was much better already, obviously there gonna be growing pain games along the way but if he works on himself in offseason I don’t see why he wouldn’t make a massive jump next season? This year is prob more about just commanding 2 pitches and consistently throwing slider the same, I’ve watched both his last 2 starts and didn’t see him hanging shit or struggling much to locate, that alresdy a big step up from the 1st month of the year.
 
KJ said:
We both know he struggles throwing strikes and when he has to, he either throws one into the stands or right down broadway (or at your helmet)

At least 3 years away from getting 7 innings and no runs from him more often than not
Click to expand...

Who does this? The fact that he's done this twice already seems pretty solid to me. He does throw down the middle a lot but he also has nice stuff, his slider especially has really good movement making it tough to hit and he makes it hard to tell which pitch is leaving his hand via his release point. Lots of great pitchers throw down the middle a lot, and they can get away with it when their stuff is good enough.
 
2daBank said:
I just dunno why ya think it gonna take him 3 years to figure it out? I’ve seen games where his command was much better already, obviously there gonna be growing pain games along the way but if he works on himself in offseason I don’t see why he wouldn’t make a massive jump next season? This year is prob more about just commanding 2 pitches and consistently throwing slider the same, I’ve watched both his last 2 starts and didn’t see him hanging shit or struggling much to locate, that alresdy a big step up from the 1st month of the year.
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How much more can he jump? 2.71 ERA, 2.29 FIP, 2.83 xFIP
 
2daBank said:
I just dunno why ya think it gonna take him 3 years to figure it out? I’ve seen games where his command was much better already, obviously there gonna be growing pain games along the way but if he works on himself in offseason I don’t see why he wouldn’t make a massive jump next season? This year is prob more about just commanding 2 pitches and consistently throwing slider the same, I’ve watched both his last 2 starts and didn’t see him hanging shit or struggling much to locate, that alresdy a big step up from the 1st month of the year.
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Infielders don't just learn pitching quickly, it's a few years

Otherwise it either demeans pitching or makes pitchers overpaid

I think it takes a minimum of three years to understand the movement and command it. Maybe a game he does great, no chance it's consistent in the near future.
 
Smeltzer Over 15.5 outs.,, He has went over this in 4 of his 6 starts, pitches to contact so I wouldn’t think the pitch count be to high. He will throw strikes and snakes should get themezvrs out.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
How much more can he jump? 2.71 ERA, 2.29 FIP, 2.83 xFIP
Click to expand...

What are those numbers? That not his total season, just last few? Think we talking more about his consistency. I think he improving rapidly, I’m sure he still have bad outings but no way would I be looking to bet on him giving up bunch of runs going forward.
 
2daBank said:
What are those numbers? That not his total season, just last few? Think we talking more about his consistency. I think he improving rapidly, I’m sure he still have bad outings but no way would I be looking to bet on him giving up bunch of runs going forward.
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Those are his total season numbers!
 
Chisox was only side I played tonight, +140 seemed like a pretty good price considering giolito history vs them, the offense actually scoring some runs lately, and getting to face a lefty. That one blow up inning giolito tends to have is worrisome but gotta just hope he can avoid it. Dunno what else to do with a guy who is typically elite for all but 1 stinking inning every game? Lol
 
Leaned rangers but just stuck with the Ff under. Not really sure why they dogs to tigers? Skubal is awesome but considering the lineup Gray facing I think starting pitching is basically a wash.
 
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